There are some guys I know I’m very unlikely to roster in a given season based on their cost. Let me acknowledge the obvious axiom that every player has their price, so if these guys all fell well below their current perceived prices (I did get some ADP data from Fantrax.com and I’ve been in a handful of drafts already because I’m insane), I’d likely pounce, but as it currently stands I just don’t see it. Without further ado, here are 10 guys I probably won’t be rostering in 2017 drafts.

Brian Dozier

Dozier had a fantastic 2016 with career-highs in HR, RBI, and AVG while approaching previous highs in R and SB. Perhaps the craziest part of it all was that he spotted the league two months (.624 OPS through May), but the surge has pushed him into the 3rd-4th round area. While the cost doesn’t require a full repeat, I just don’t think I want to pay that for what I think will be something like .255-28-15 from a 30-year old at a deep position. Flyball and hard contact jumps support the power boost, but his 18% HR/FB was also a career-high by quite a bit (previous high of 13%).

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Chat transcript is below!

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12/15/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
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12/15/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (6:30)

• Where will Edwin Encarnacion sign?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Dexter Fowler to STL (20:40)
• Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner back to LAD (28:00)
• Welington Castillo to BAL (34:00)
• Odubel Herrera signs extension (40:00)
• Derek Holland to CWS (47:30)
• Koji Uehara to CHC (52:00)
• Mike Dunn to COL (57:00)

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Pitching is a fickle market. Consider that just three years ago we had Anibal Sanchez, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Cliff Lee in the top 10 for ERA. Perhaps more remarkably, Shelby Miller, Andrew Cashner, Travis Wood, and Kris Medlen were all in top 20 while James Shields and Mat Latos were just outside. Life comes at you fast as a pitcher.

Obviously, injuries are the biggest factor in changing the fate of a pitcher and most of the names suffered an injury or three in the interim that has seriously altered their path. Tyson Ross put up 516.7 IP of a 3.07 ERA from 2013-15, but missed essentially all of 2016 with a shoulder injury that eventually gave way to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and led to his being non-tendered by the Padres. He’ll latch on somewhere and remain on the radar as he works his way back, but sometimes guys just get squeezed out and collectively forget about them.

It isn’t always due to injury, either. Poor performance, a dimmed prospect star, or just a lack of prospect status in the first place can all push a guy to the side in the crowded pitching market. Here are four arms you should keep in mind for deeper leagues (more than 10 teams) in 2017:

Homer Bailey | Reds

Bailey has essentially missed two seasons to Tommy John surgery and the subsequent recovery. It came almost directly on the heels of him signing a 6-year, $105 million dollar extension, too. He has three guaranteed years left at $63 mil plus a $25 million dollar option for 2020 which seems like a pipedream now and is much more likely to result in the $5 million dollar buyout.

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Chat transcript is below!

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The Rule 5 Draft Thursday morning essentially marks the end of the Winter Meetings and this year’s iteration did not disappoint. We’ve got three more huge moves to look at today.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

Royals trade Wade Davis to Cubs for Jorge Soler

This return for Davis might feel light after what we saw elite relievers net during the deadline, but I definitely think the offseason/in-season dynamic plays a role and we also saw Davis suffer two DL stints with forearm and flexor strains. He saw his strikeout rate and velocity drop while his walk rate, ERA, and WHIP all went up, though I will note his swinging strike rate jumped up a tick and a half to 13%.

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12/8/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (6:40)

• What will the Dodgers do if they don’t re-sign Kenley Jansen?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Chris Sale trade to BOS (20:30)
• Adam Eaton trade to WAS (32:40)
• Aroldis Chapman to NYY (47:00)
• Wade Davis trade to CHC (56:00)
• Mark Melancon to SF (1:09:25)
• Joaquin Benoit to PHI (1:12:30)
• Fernando Rodney to ARI (1:15:50)
• Carlos Gomez to TEX (1:20:30)
• Ian Desmond to COL (1:25:00)
• Wilson Ramos to TB (1:31:00)

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12/7/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Guest Details: Paul Kastava, Rotographs Contributor (Twitter linked above)

Guest Rundown:

• Key Closers (5:45)
  • Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland
• Key 1B (37:00)
  • Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli, and recently non-tendered Chris Carter
• Key OFs (1:09:20)
  • Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, Jose Bautista
• Key Cs (1:33:30)
  • Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, and recently non-tendered Welington Castillo

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12/6/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Guest Details: Rob Silver – winner of the 2016 NFBC Main Event

Guest Rundown: We discuss Rob’s prep prior to the 2016 draft, the draft itself, and then the lessons he learned from the six-month grind that resulted in his win.

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We are cooking now!! The Winter Meetings often kick the Hot Stove into high gear and even with a light free agent market, we are officially on fire. It became obvious over the summer that the trades were going to drive this market and that’s coming to fruition with heavy rumors that include superstars and then a huge blockbuster today that likely won’t be topped the rest of the way even if some of those other starts move.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

White Sox trade Chris Sale to Red Sox for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz

The Red Sox scooped an ace lefty for the second straight offseason and this one might be even better – which is saying something because David Price is awesome (yes, even after his wonky debut season in Boston). Sale can succeed anywhere so I’m not sure park factors and stuff like that is going to move the needle much one way or another.

It’s worth noting that his overall home run park factor improves in Fenway, but he might not get full benefit of it because the gains are mostly against lefties, who he already absolutely suffocates. He did allow five homers to lefties this past season, after allowing just three in his career prior to 2016. Bullpen and lineup support improves in Boston, too, and could aid Sale to setting a new career-high in wins (17, twice).

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