Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – December 9th, 2016

Chat transcript is below!

3:30
Paul Sporer: It’s that time again! How’s everyone doing this Friday?

3:31
Paul Sporer: Sorry for the switch from Thursday. Winter Meetings was crazy, but we got 4 pods out covering all the transaction goodness

3:31
Acuna Moncada: How should someone value Javy Baez assuming he doesn’t get traded and land a starting gig somewhere? Should we pencil in 450 plate appearances with the Cubs or is this someone to avoid altogether given the uncertainty in playing time?

3:33
Paul Sporer: I think the upside is still worth gambling on and his defense incentivizes the Cubs and Maddon to find that PT. I would tab him closer to 500 PA, but he’s an easy overvalue candidate bc the hype was re-energized in the playoffs.

3:34
Kevin: 16 teams keep 17 forever no salaries which side you like…Mous and Keuchel or Franco and Matt Moore? I own and prefer the Mous side just looking for a 2nd opinion.

3:34
Paul Sporer: I’d like Franco/Moore definitively, though not by a landslide if that makes sense. In other words, I clearly pick that side, but the separation isn’t crazy

3:35
Patrick: If you were the Rangers, would you send Profar for a “meh” player if the other team agrees to take on Choo and his contract?

3:37
Paul Sporer: No. I don’t think Choo is done. Injuries ate his ’16 and he will be 34, but I think we outside of the game write off these mid-30s guys quicker than we should because we assume the injuries are just gonna overtake them. There’s a plausible scenario where he gets healthy and starts raking righties again

3:37
Minty: Little more clarification from twitter. 3 years of Springer for 5 of Dahl even in OBP? Thanks.

3:37
Paul Sporer: Yep, sign me up. I like Springer and he has a good chance to be better in ’17, but I prefer Dahl long-term, especially for 2 extra seasons

3:37
Peter: How cringe-worthy is that G. Stanton contract for the Marlins now? Should they be very, very afraid?

3:38
Paul Sporer: No more so than it was when they signed it, insofar as we judge those strictly on a performance basis. Obviously performance is key, but teams don’t expect the WAR/$ to line up perfectly on these mega-deals

3:40
Minty: Does switching Sox affect Moncada long term?

3:42
Paul Sporer: A bit, I mean the White Sox are definitely worse right now, but it’s not like he was established within that Red Sox lineup or anything. I still think he has a great ceiling to deliver big power at an infield spot

3:42
Mitch: Better 2017: Liriano or Tyson Ross?

3:42
Paul Sporer: I’m gonna go Liriano just due to the uncertainty of thoracic outlet syndrome. The fact that Ross was non-tendered doesn’t inspire tons of confidence

3:44
Slamboni: Would cost me $3 to keep Tyler O’Neill in my AL only, worth the stash or am I a year too early?

3:44
Paul Sporer: It’s a year early if you can’t put him on a taxi squad of some sort

3:47
Jimmy Steve: In an AL only keeper league where we can keep as many as we want, but one player gets voted off from every team and each keeper has a $3 increase from last year’s auction price to keep. The top 3-5 teams have a monopoly on good players, how do we re-balance the league? Higher draft budget, keeper limit, vote more off from top finishers?

3:47
Paul Sporer: keeper limit is the easiest way and maybe scale it so the bottom teams can keep 1-2 more

3:47
Steve: Where in the 3B rankings would you slot Gurriel? Is this someone worth the gamble next year?

3:50
Paul Sporer: He’s sneaky and kinda off the radar http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/third-basemen-rankings-first-run/

3:50
Sulzer: What are your thoughts on Paxton for 2017? Who’d you rather? Paxton or Musgrove? Thanks Paul!

3:51
Paul Sporer: I love Paxton and the only thing that keeps me from really going nuts is his horrible health track record. Brad might like him even more – tabbing him 38th in his recent rankings. My first blush rankings put him 50th (I only wrote up my top 24, but I have an Excel that runs about 80 deep on SPs right now)

3:51
Paul Sporer: Definitely prefer him to Musgrove, who I like, but just doesn’t have the same upside

3:51
Jim: Do you see the Cardinals pursuing an additional bat beyond Fowler?

3:55
Paul Sporer: Maybe a bench bat, but their lineup is pretty set. Plus, I really like Harrison Bader, who could be up in-season

3:55
Neck: Keep Schwarber in 4th Round of a 12 team/mixed or is that too high? No restrictions on length of contract, could conceivably keep him forever as one of my top 4 rounders.

3:56
Paul Sporer: It might be a touch high (he went 4th rd in a 15-teamer I did), but it’s not that far off where he’s going, so if you really like him, take a shot.

3:57
Minty: Friggin Jeff Bandi

3:57
Paul Sporer: Jett Bandy* … he’s such a jerk!

3:57
Ant: Dynasty- Hosmer & Gallo for Blackmon. Which side?

3:58
Paul Sporer: I don’t really see Gallo being much more than a Russell Branyan type and Hosmer’s power just isn’t great for a 1B, so gimme the dynamic Blackmon

3:58
Slamboni: Follow up question: What is a taxi squad and is it possible via ESPN fantasy sports? That’s where we have our league

3:59
Paul Sporer: A taxi squad is just like a couple minor leagues that don’t count against your roster. It doesn’t have to be a taxi squad, it could also just be a bigger reserve roster. But if you’re rockin 3-5 reserves, I wouldn’t keep O’Neill.

3:59
Frank: Trade away my Hosmer & Stroman for his Bumgarner??

3:59
Paul Sporer: Yessir

3:59
Dumpster Fiers: Robbie Ray the SP that breaks out in 2017?

4:00
Paul Sporer: Well, I think there will be more than one, but he could be among the group. I’m a little torn on him. He just gives up way too much hard contact, but at the same time we don’t see guys rack up that many Ks without jumping forward in the future as they continue to put it together. I used to be all out on him, but I’ve got one foot in the pool now. He falls pretty far in early drafts and now I’m open to taking a shot

4:00
Matt: I have to decide between keeping Carlos Martinez or Michael Fulmer. 16 team league ERA, WHIP, W, K for the relevant pitching cateories. The cost is not a huge difference either. 8 vs 5. They seem so close it’s like a coin toss…

4:01
Paul Sporer: I think they’re close enough that the cheaper becomes the answer almost by default

4:01
Not Dal: Personally I don’t believe Cards need another huge bat at a Cards fan need to make maybe a dope big time trade tho

4:01
Paul Sporer: Ya they definitely don’t need a huge bat. It’d be like a bench guy. I could see them trading for pitching more though because their rotation has some risk

4:01
Choo choo: Arrieta or Darvish?

4:02
Paul Sporer: Darvish by a few slots

4:03
Jon: What type of value do you see A.J. Reed having over the next three years? Do you prefer Reed or Josh Bell long term?

4:04
Paul Sporer: Maybe a slightly better Matt Adams? I really like Bell, I think that dude rakes. I’d take him over Reed

4:05
Ted: How about EE to the Mariners? That lineup would be pretty scary with him. Do you think 3/55 with an opt out gets it done?

4:05
Paul Sporer: Not sure if that gets it done (I suck with the contract guesses), but I did mention Seattle as a possibility on the pod episode with Paul Kastava. It’d give them 2 stud RH and 2 stud LH in the heart of their order

4:05
Twoseaming: Healy, Bregman or Eduardo Nunez in 2017. 6×6 H2H (holds and OBP added)

4:14
Paul Sporer: There isn’t a ton of separation, but I’d go in the order you have them bc I don’t buy Nunez as a 40 SB

4:14
Frank: Chances Springer gets to play CF this year? Need the eligibility badly.

4:15
Paul Sporer: Very possible

4:15
Patrick: Which site have you had the best fantasy sports experience on? I have only used espn and yahoo, but hated Yahoo. Looking for a new Dynasty/keeper league

4:16
Paul Sporer: I actually don’t hate CBS as much as most. I’m friendly with the guy who runs Fantrax and we’ve been using them for some early mocks and it’s been really good

4:17
Recca: 4 player keeper league. I have Bregman, Springer, and Kershaw for 3 of the 4. Deciding between Schwarber and Dozier for that 4th spot. Who are you leaning towards? No keeper penalties/keeper length limit.

4:18
Paul Sporer: I prefer Dozier

4:18
Josh: Hold on to Robles in a dynasty lg or trade him now for Jansen?

4:18
Paul Sporer: I’d want more than a closer, even an elite one

4:19
Paul Sporer: I’d prefer a bat or top SP

4:19
Twoseaming: Dynasty 6×6 H2H Cat – McCullers for 4 yrs for Giolito 6 yrs, Rio Ruiz 6 yrs and Steven Brault 6 yrs. Got 7 solid starters already – pushing all in for another trip to the ship. Yes/no?

4:19
Paul Sporer: You give those 3 for McCullers? I love McCullers so I’d be inclined to do that

4:19
GR Rump: Healy or Frazier in 2017?

4:19
Paul Sporer: Still Frazier, but Healy rising!

4:21
Tuffy Gosewich: I’M A REAL PERSON! And I can keep six in my mixed roto league, $260 budget. Which six from Votto ($25), Archer ($17), Arrieta ($22), Schwarber ($11) and Rich Hill, Bregman, Benintendi, Swanson, Mazara, and Aaron Sanchez (all $6). I’m tempted to go with the last six listed. What say you?

4:21
Paul Sporer: Fake question

4:21
Paul Sporer: from a fake person

4:21
Paul Sporer: Too much risk going with the last 5 only. I’d go Votto, the 3 $6 hitters, Schwarber, and Sanchez

4:22
Mitch: Does Gsellman have breakout potential next season?

4:22
Paul Sporer:

4:23
Paul Sporer: I don’t quite think he’s got big time breakout potential. A breakout for him would be sticking for 150 IP in the rotation

4:24
Moncada: Am I crazy to think about keeping Moncada ($2) over Odor ($11) or Cespedes ($21) in an OBP-heavy points league?

4:27
Paul Sporer: Ahh, ya, I don’t think I’d do that this year. There’s a pretty plausible scenario where he stays in Triple-A all year

4:27
GR Rump: Is Kershaw a top 10 overall pick given his back problems in 2016? Top 15?

4:27
Paul Sporer: Yes, top 10 for me still

4:27
Ziplips: Which would you prefer in 5×5 traditional roto: Goldy at #4 or Miggy at #14?

4:27
Paul Sporer: Miggy in late-first

4:28
Jonathan: Dynasty keep forever points league choose between c Frazier l Brinson j profar b swihart r schimpf I can keep two out of those five

4:30
Paul Sporer: Brinson and then I’m torn… but I think I’d go Profar

4:30
12th man : Rich Hill, Zach Britton, or Nelson Cruz as the last guy in my keeper league?

4:31
Paul Sporer: Cruz, he’s still absolutely beasting

4:34
Rob: How would you rank these four potential options going into an AL-keeper league next season: 1) Kluber @ $31, 2) Verlander @ $25, 3) Paxton @ $8 and 4) McHugh @ $8? Thanks!

4:37
Paul Sporer: Just as you have them listed. Kluber is still the best and worth the investment. Paxton’s price is nice, but it’s because of the risk.

4:37
Patty: Does Pablo Sandoval have a starting job come opening day? If so, what should he go for at a $260 11-team AL-only league auction?

4:37
Paul Sporer: I think he does, yes. I’d go $5.

4:37
Cronut Burger: I’m super excited to see what Benintendi and Healy can do playing the entire season at the major league level. Should I temper my expectations or go full throttle?

4:38
Paul Sporer: I always want to temper expectations on those types, but they are really impressive bats and I’m in on both

4:38
Jason Derulo: When do you think we see Bellinger? Really wanna stash in an OBP keeper but gotta time it right.

4:39
Paul Sporer: Probably 2018 for any real impact at the earliest

4:39
Matt: Is $5 Snell and $8 Kang a good offer for a $4 Ramirez

4:39
Paul Sporer: Ya, it might even be a little too much, tbh

4:43
Meta: Meta fantasy question. With SBs down (and HRs up) across the league, does this throw off the balance between category-based leagues and points-based leagues? In a points-based league, I don’t care if my points come from HRs or SBs; whereas in a category-based league, high SB guys like Villar are way more valuable than they would be in almost any other context. Is it time for Fangraphs to start putting out two sets of rankings?

4:45
Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s time to over-correct on rankings because things can change on a dime (see also: this year’s HR surge) but I do think the decline in SBs changes things. Someone like Villar does get a spike, but only because he adds power to his speed. I don’t think the lack of SBs actually helps the Dee Gordons and Billy Hamiltons of the world because they put an extra burden on your remaining roster spots for power, but Villar and Starling Marte and even Paul Goldschmidt w/his consistent double digit totals get a boost

4:45
Ben: Trade or keep $32 Odor in 20 teamer?

4:45
Paul Sporer: trade af

4:52
JBJ: Fowler worth keeping at $19

4:52
Paul Sporer: Depends on league parameters, but I’m not sure he’d go much more if thrown back

4:52
Marnko Lor: Who’s the best AL starter (for all around fantasy purposes) in 2017: Sale, Price, Kluber or Darvish?

4:53
Paul Sporer: Sale

4:54
Ziplips: I play in a 5×6 roto league with 12 owners and tradition stats – expect we also have a category for most total IP. What’s your pick for the next Benatances breakout RP – someone who will give me 100+ IP and really great peripherals?

4:55
Paul Sporer: Not sure he’ll get to 100 IP, but Kyle Barraclough

4:55
Marnko Lor: ESPN’s “way to early rankings” has Trea at 17, Correa at 22, Lindor at 23 and Seager at 24 overall. Correa > Trea, right? And Seager > Lindor!!

4:59
Paul Sporer: Ya I have it that way, but the pairs are really close. I think Lindor is closer to Seager than most think

4:59
Ben: How much do you like Greg Bird this season?

4:59
Paul Sporer: A good bit given that he’s REALLY cheap

4:59
Bassitt of Deplorables: Healy over Bregman? Are you really so bullish on Healy’s power production that it beats out Bregman probably being better at OBP and SB?

5:01
Paul Sporer: Not sure I have Bregman automatically w/the better OBP. And while his SBs are going to be higher, they aren’t going to be game-changing

5:01
Ben: How much do you like Greg Bird this season. Could keep $27 Abreu, $32 Votto, $4 Bird, $4 Carter to fill 1B/CI/U. Can I trust Bird to hold down a slot and trade Votto or Abreu

5:02
Paul Sporer: Ya, I could trade Abreu

5:02
Billy Two Shoes: Jose Altuve stole 7 bases post-ASB last year, hitting pretty much solely out of the three spot in the lineup. With it looking like he’ll hit there again this year, how concerned should we be about his SB totals dipping in 2017? How much of a hit does his fantasy value take if he doesn’t even hit the 20 SB plateau?

5:03
Paul Sporer: I think the concern is valid: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/top-15-second-basemen-first-run/ — but I still think he gets at least high-teens and it doesn’t really curb his value too much

5:03
FGM: Arrieta $16 & Giolito $2 for Kershaw $36?

5:03
Paul Sporer: Gimme Kersh if I’m gunning for the ’17 title

5:07
Jack Murphy: Will Addison Russell be a stud any time soon?

5:07
Paul Sporer: THIS YEAR!!!

5:07
The kid: What went wrong with Price in 2016?

5:08
Paul Sporer: Seemed to lose his mechanics for periods and suffered too many implosion starts. Solid upper round bounceback.

5:08
Twoseaming: how much time is too much time (per day) to spend on fantasy baseball?

5:08
Paul Sporer: 20 hours is when it’s an issue

5:08
Klorei: Who’s Rich Hill in 2017?

5:09
Paul Sporer: Probably Rich Hill again

5:09
Steve: Joe Ross or Lance McCullers next 3 years?

5:09
Paul Sporer: McCullers

5:09
Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get rolling. Thanks for coming out today!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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