Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 27th, 2017
by Paul Sporer
January 27, 2017
Chat transcript is below!
Author Archive
Early ADP Thoughts – Starting Pitcher, Part I
by Paul Sporer
January 26, 2017
The volatility of pitching makes SP average draft figures sketchy after the top 25 or so. Opinions can only differ so much on hitters, especially those with anything close to a track record (starting around ~1000+ MLB PA), but opinions will vary widely on pitchers regardless of track record. Some won’t believe in a pitcher until he has 500-600 IP under his belt regardless of how good his first 200-300 are while on the other end you have fantasy players afraid to be holding the hot potato when the music stops on someone with a lengthy track record in their mid-30s.
Most of the guys in that sweet spot are the established aces and frontliners (lower level #1s, elite #2s) that we generally agree on for those early round picks. This year is vastly different than last year which is likely to create even wider chasms perhaps as early as the mid-teens among starters. The uncertainty should create some fantastic buying opportunities, though, and it’ll open up draft strategies, too.
Last year, most teams didn’t want to exit the third round without their ace. Early on this year, teams are OK waiting until the sixth, maybe even seventh round to get their ace while they stock up on hitting and perhaps open their pitching staff with an elite closer instead. As with outfield, I’ll do two parts with starters going through the top 50 today and then 51 and beyond next time.
Early ADP Thoughts – Outfield, II
by Paul Sporer
January 24, 2017
Outfield deserved two parts given its depth so we’re diving into part two today. There has been some shifting right around my cutoff point (50th OF) so keep in mind that I’m discussing their average draft slot at the time of writing. In fact, the first guy I’m mentioning today was actually at 52 when I did part one, but he has jumped up to 50.
Previous Editions:
- Eric Thames (pick 212) returns from an obscenely successful run in Korea during which he averaged 40 HR and 20 SB a year with a .348/.463/.720 line including a 47 HR/40 SB/1.288 OPS season in 2015.
- Projections throughout the industry are very aggressive on Thames with his being the rare case where Fans are lowest on him, but even if he “only” reached their level (.264 AVG/24 HR/6 SB) it’d be a nice season and well worth his average draft cost, though a big spring will cause his price to surge.
Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 20th, 2017
by Paul Sporer
January 20, 2017
Chat transcript is below:
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 419 – Slotting Sluggers
by Paul Sporer
January 19, 2017
1/19/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Leading Off: Question of the Day (1:20)
- Slotting Sluggers: Are there spots for the remaining power bats? [Eno’s piece]
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
- Dan Straily traded to MIA (20:00)
- Neftali Feliz to MIL (29:50)
- Breaking news in the show: Mark Trumbo back to BAL (1:16:47)
Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns
- Boston Red Sox
- Where does Andrew Benintendi bat? (37:15)
- How does Rick Porcello follow up the Cy season? (41:13)
- Is there anything left for Pablo Sandoval? (55:15)
- Favorite Target: Hanley Ramirez (1:05:50)
- Stayaway: Porcello (1:08:15)
- Off-the-Radar: Drew Pomeranz, Tyler Thornburg (1:09:50)
- Impact Prospects: Rafael Devers (1:13:00)
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Early ADP Thoughts – Outfield, Part I
by Paul Sporer
January 19, 2017
As we continue our tour of the NFBC average draft data by position, I want to reiterate something I may have been unclear about early on: this isn’t a ranking list and as such, not every player will be mentioned. Additionally, every position header after these intros is a link to the ADP data of said position.
Previous Editions:
I have to go two parts on outfield, it’s too robust. I’ll go first 50 today and then the rest in another piece.
- For someone reason Mike Trout (pick 1) has a max pick of 2, meaning he was not taken first in a draft.
- You are trying way too hard if you’re taking any hitter but Trout at #1. I can listen to the Kershaw #1 camp, especially since we’re not going into the season thinking there are upwards of 20 aces like last year.
Early ADP Thoughts – Third Base
by Paul Sporer
January 18, 2017
There is a palpable unreliability to ADP data that we usually forget about until it punches us in the face three rounds into every draft. This has pushed me toward a “get your guys” tactic that I’ve been employing for a few years now. It’s not new, I didn’t make it up, but I used to get hung up on taking a guy “too early” because ADP says he’s a 10th rounder. Until one day I told myself, “hey dummy, you do realize the A in ADP stands for average, right?” I’m very rude to myself it seems.
It was then I started to look more at the highest a player has gone just to get a feel for where the most aggressive believers are on a player. By the way, this isn’t to say Min Pick (as it’s titled on the NFBC data) is a perfect guide, either. It’s the outlier, but it prepares you for what could happen in your draft. In short, a reach or a bargain really varies between the fantasy players. My reach is your bargain and vice versa… well, assuming I didn’t have perfect rankings, but theoretically you could deem one of my bargains a reach.
Just get your guys. Be reasonable, but get the guys that you want. You did the research, you have players you think will greatly outdo expectations, so lock them in. Again, being reasonable is the key part here. This means going a round or two higher within the top 150 picks and then you can stretch it to 2-4 rounds in the double-digit rounds.
I’m only looking at third base today because outfield is going to be a biggie and pairing the two would’ve been a bit much. I’ll go deep here to make up for doing just one position.
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 418 – Potential Lefty Studs
by Paul Sporer
January 16, 2017
1/16/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
- Jose Bautista re-signs (1:30)
- Michael Saunders to PHI (6:16)
- Carlos Rodon v. James Paxton (9:50)
- Jason’s thoughts on Drew Smyly (15:16)
Mailbag!
- Email from Eric (18:15)
- Email from Cooper (20:40)
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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 13th, 2017
by Paul Sporer
January 13, 2017
The chat was a long one today! Enjoy the transcript below:
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 417 – Dealin’ Dipoto
by Paul Sporer
January 12, 2017
1/12/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
Follow us on Twitter
Leading Off: Question of the Day (2:50)
- Dodgers at impasse for Brian Dozier; Will he be dealt this winter?
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
- Jarrod Dyson/Nate Karns SEA-KC trade (6:50)
- Seth Smith to BAL (27:00)
- Mallex Smith traded to SEA (31:50)
- Drew Smyly traded to SEA; Smith to TB (36:20)
- Trevor Plouffe & Santiago Casilla to OAK (43:30)
Mailbag!
- Email from Jon re: identifying legitimacy of breakouts (52:20)
Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns
- New York Yankees (1:00:00)
- Lineup
- Rotation
- Bullpen
- Favorite Target: Gregory Bird
- Stayaways: Aaron Judge, Michael Pineda
- Off-the-Radar: Matt Holliday
- Impact Prospect(s): Gleyber Torres
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