Author Archive

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 984 – Breakout Breakdown: Hitters

10/12/21

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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2021 Roster Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

52-110 (5th in Division; 29th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 30 (28th)

RP Wins: 22 (30th)

Saves: 22 (30th)

1+ Save: 8 (Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard 6, Stefan Crichton 4, J.B. Wendelken 2, Noé Ramirez, Riley Smith, Sean Poppen, Chris Devenski 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Zac Gallen 139, Merrill Kelly 켈리 130, Madison Bumgarner, Caleb Smith 124)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Ketel Marte .318, Pavin Smith .267, Josh Rojas .264)

65+ Runs: 2 (Rojas 69, Smith 68)

65+ RBI: 1 (Eduardo Escobar 65)

10+ HRs: 7 (Escobar 22, Marte 14, Carson Kelly 13, Smith, Rojas, Daulton Varsho 11, Christian Walker 10)

5+ SBs: 4 (Rojas 9, Nick Ahmed 7, Varsho 6, Locastro 5)

BEST BUY: Josh Rojas

Rojas looked like he was breaking out with an 81-game run from late-April to mid-August during which he hit .306/.384/.502 with 10 HR and 6 SB in 340 PA, but then finished with a .530 OPS in his last 149 PA leaving his full season line a bit underwhelming (102 wRC+). Power/speed bat with triple eligibility (2B/SS/OF) who won’t be super expensive and still carries some upside, even at age-28.

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2021 Roster Review: Baltimore Orioles

52-110 (5th in Division; 30th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 24 (30th)

RP Wins: 28 (26th)

Saves: 26 (28th)

1+ Save: 6 (Cole Sulser, César Valdez 8, Tyler Wells 4, Dillon Tate 3, Paul Fry 2, Adam Plutko 1)

100+ Ks: 2 (John Means 134, Jorge López 112)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 1 (Cedric Mullins .291)

65+ Runs: 4 (Mullins 91, Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini 77, Austin Hays 73)

65+ RBI: 3 (Mountcastle 89, Mancini, Hays 71)

10+ HRs: 8 (Mountcastle 33, Mullins 30, Hays 22, Mancini 21, Anthony Santander 18, DJ Stewart 12, Maikel Franco, Pedro Severino 11)

5+ SBs: 2 (Mullins 30, Jorge Mateo 5)

BEST BUY: Anthony Santander

Santander has been averaging about 30-100 over the last three seasons (33 HR/95 RBI per 162 gms since ’19), but he has struggled to stay on the field with just 93 and 110 games in his last two full seasons (2019 and 2021). He still hit the ball with authority this year despite the injuries that piled up (ankle, hamstring, knee). The skills are there for him, it is a matter of staying healthy and finally reaching that 500+ PA level.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 6th, 2021

Thanks for coming out!

1:33

Paul Sporer: Chat time! It’ll be a little shorter this week, but I didn’t want to skip entirely!

1:38

Andrew: I have 4 possible keepers and can only keep 3, which of these players would you keep for next year? Javy Baez (Round 11), Spencer Torkelson (Round 21), Teoscar Hernandez (Round 10), Marcus Semien (Round 12)

1:38

Paul Sporer: It’s down to Baez v. Tork for me. I think the 10 rounds are enough to take the gamble on Tork despite him having not debuted yet. He’ll likely go higher than rd 21 if thrown back so let’s go w/him!

1:38

chilly: something about rengifo that i really like.  is bat speed something thats measured here at FG?  something about that left handed swing i really like.  anyways, u feel he could breakout next yr ala josh rojas this yr?  nothing crazy but solid streaky.  or u think laa will continue playing 30yo like mayfield, gosselin, etc

1:44

Paul Sporer: No I’m with you on liking him a bit. He’s shown strong plate skills in the minors and while we haven’t seen them pay dividends in the majors yet, he’s still quite early in his career (700 career PA). Playing time should definitely be available for ’22 as well

1:44

Henry: How about them Sox!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 983 – Breakout Breakdown: SPs

10/5/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

IN FOCUS: BREAKOUT BREAKDOWN SPs Pt. 1

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 982 – Weekend Streamers Oct. 2nd-3rd

10/1/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

IN FOCUS: SATURDAY

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Starting Pitcher Chart – October 1st, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 30th, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 29th, 2021

Final chat of the regular season!

1:02

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! The regular season finale of my weekly chat starts now!! (FYI, chats will continue in the offseason but there will be missed weeks here & there especially around holidays of course)

1:02

Noob: You think Trout’s recent injury woes impacts his value at all?

1:03

Paul Sporer: He will go cheaper in the mocks that are happening now and in the coming month or two. I think it’ll start to push back up as Spring starts and he looks healthy (assuming he does, of course)

1:04

Justin: Who are you picking for more saves through Sunday- steck or kittredge?

1:04

Paul Sporer: I’d pick Steck but we’re prob talking about a save difference at this juncture

1:05

MLBTOPDX: Dipoto and the Mariners what a success, coupled with there very strong farm system don’t ya think writers should stop knocking them off? The Will Make the Playoffs jus watch

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 29th, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

Read the rest of this entry »