Archive for Roster Review

Over a fantasy season, it’s hard to trace results back to the decisions or actions you took that led to that result. We take so many actions from keepers (if your league has them), to the draft, to trades, to FAAB or waiver moves, to lineup decisions, that parsing what mattered and what didn’t can be impossible.

Instead, I find it is more productive to evaluate things the other direction – look at decisions you made or actions you took, determine how they impacted your final results, and then decide if you did something right and repeatable or wrong and avoidable. That is how I started the analysis of my trade for Tarik Skubal. And that’s why I am diving into my bullpen in Ottoneu League 1.

I felt I had a strong team, with a good lineup and a top-tier rotation. I finished 4th. That’s not terrible – we pay out the top four spots and I still get bragging rights over eight managers, many of whom I have competed with for nearly two decades. But it isn’t what I hoped. And the bullpen might be why.

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Let’s finish my review of my imaginary NFBC rosters with a team of hitters that weren’t purchased in a single NFBC auction in March. I had 110 players to choose from to build this elite squad. Let’s find out how they performed!

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Last Thursday, I reviewed my $14 NFBC offense. As expected, it didn’t turn out very good, but hidden within the squad was a couple of gems that yielded a nice profit for their owners. Let’s now shift over to pitching. In addition to my cheapie offense, I also drafted a $9 pitching staff. As I did during my hitter review, I’ll repost the group’s projections first, based on ATC pre-season forecasts. Then I’ll post another table displaying how they actually performed, and what they earned in a standard 15-team league.

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We are going to need those TPS reports turned in by COB yesterday. That’s when the All-Star break officially ends. Did you think it was time to rest? Did you think it was time to relax with a nice piece of fictional literature by the pool? Wrong. Now is the time to assess how your team is performing.

Here are three easy steps you can put into practice to keep your foot on the gas and prepare yourself for success in the second half:

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107-55 (1st in Division; 1st in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 58 (5th)

RP Wins: 49 (2nd)

Saves: 56 (t-1st)

1+ Save: 8 (Jake McGee 31, Tyler Rogers 13, Camilo Doval 3, Zack Littell, Dominic Leone, Caleb Baragar, Wandy Peralta 2, Jarlín García 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Kevin Gausman 227, Logan Webb 158, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood 152)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Buster Posey .304, Brandon Crawford .298, Donovan Solano .280, Brandon Belt .274, Wilmer Flores .262)

65+ Runs: 5 (Kris Bryant 86, Crawford 79, Mike Yastrzemski 75, Posey 68, Belt 65)

65+ RBI: 3 (Crawford 90, Bryant 73, Yastrzemski 71)

10+ HRs: 11 (Belt 29, Yastrzemski, Bryant 25, Crawford 24, LaMonte Wade Jr., Flores, Posey 18, Darin Ruf 러프 16, Evan Longoria, Alex Dickerson 13, Austin Slater 12)

5+ SBs: 6 (Slater 15, Crawford 11, Steven Duggar 7, Wade Jr., Kris Bryant 6)

BEST BUY: Alex Wood

It is hard to settle on a Best Buy because so many of their guys have injury issues that are built into their price. Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb, and Brandon Belt are all in the 200-260 pick range which is a very fair price for what they are capable of doing. Wood rebounded after pitching just 48.3 innings in 2019-20 and posted a career-best 26% K rate that helped him to a 3.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 138.7 IP. The talent is clear, it all comes down to his health. Just plan for 125 or so innings and take anything beyond that as a bonus.

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106-56 (2nd in Division; 3rd in MLB)

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SP Wins: 65 (1st)

RP Wins: 41 (11th)

Saves: 56 (t-1st)

1+ Save: 10 (Kenley Jansen 38, Blake Treinen 7, Corey Knebel 3, Joe Kelly 2, Phil Bickford, Victor Gonzalez, David Price, Alex Vesia, Andre Jackson, Shane Greene 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Walker Buehler 212, Julio Urías 195, Clayton Kershaw 144, Trevor Bauer 137)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Trea Turner .338 in 228 PA [total: .328 in 646 PA], Corey Seager .306, AJ Pollock .297, Justin Turner .278, Mookie Betts .264)

65+ Runs: 4 (Max Muncy 95, Betts 93, Chris Taylor 92, J.Turner 87)

65+ RBI: 5 (Muncy 94, J.Turner 87, Will Smith 76, Taylor 73, Pollock 69)

10+ HRs: 10 (Muncy 36, J.Turner 27, Smith 25, Betts 23, Pollock 21, Taylor 20, Seager 16, Albert Pujols 12, Cody Bellinger, T.Turner 10 [total: 28])

5+ SBs: 4 (Taylor 13, T.Turner 11 [total: 32], Betts 10, Pollock 9)

BEST BUY: Trea Turner

I know, this is a super-boring pick as Turner is literally the 1.1 pick in many drafts, but the incredible upside combined with a rock-solid and relatively high floor are exactly what you want in those first few picks of the draft. The move to LA also added some eligibility as he will be 2B/SS in 2022. Some of their oldies like Justin Turner, AJ Pollock, and Chris Taylor might offer more bang for the buck given where they go in drafts, but their age (37, 34, and 31, respectively) dings the stability of their floors a bit.

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100-62 (1st in Division; 3rd in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 42 (16th)

RP Wins: 58 (1st)

Saves: 42 (10th)

1+ Save: 14 (Diego Castillo 14 [total: 16], Andrew Kittredge 8, Pete Fairbanks 5, J.P. Feyereisen 3, Jeffrey Springs, Dietrich Enns 2, Collin McHugh, Josh Fleming, Matt Wisler, Chris Mazza, Ryan Sherriff, Nick Anderson, Trevor Richards, Evan Phillips 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Shane McClanahan 141, Tyler Glasnow 123, Michael Wacha 121, Ryan Yarbrough 117)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Randy Arozarena .274, Joey Wendle .265)

65+ Runs: 4 (Brandon Lowe 97, Arozarena 94, Austin Meadows 79, Wendle 73)

65+ RBI: 3 (Meadows 106, Lowe 99, Arozarena 69)

10+ HRs: 10 (Lowe 39, Mike Zunino 33, Meadows 27, Arozarena 20, Yandy Díaz, Brett Phillips, Nelson Cruz 13, Wendle, Ji-Man Choi 11, Manuel Margot 10)

5+ SBs: 6 (Arozarena 20, Phillips 14, Margot 13, Kevin Kiermaier 9, Wendle 8, Lowe 7)

BEST BUY: Brandon Lowe

Lowe fronted the league a couple months, hitting just .189/.307/.372 through May, though he was still pacing for a 30 HR/10 SB season. He exploded from June on, posting a .276/.357/.600 with 30 HR and 4 SB (50/7 full season pace). All told, he wound up with 39 HR, 99 RBIs, 97 R, and 7 SB in 615 PA. The AVG was light at .247, but he still wound up at the 35th best hitter in the game. He is being drafted 82nd overall and 50th among hitters. While he might not fully repeat 2021, he is a solid bet for 30 HR, 85-90 RBIs, and a handful of SBs.

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95-67 (1st in Division; 4th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 63 (2nd)

RP Wins: 32 (19th)

Saves: 34 (23rd)

1+ Save: 6 (Ryan Pressly 26, Cristian Javier, Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley 레일리 2, Brandon Bielak, Bryan Abreu 1)

100+ Ks: 5 (Lance McCullers Jr. 185, Luis Garcia 167, Javier 130, Framber Valdez 125, Zack Greinke 120)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 8 (Yuli Gurriel .319, Michael Brantley .311, Kyle Tucker .294, Carlos Correa .279, Jose Altuve .278, Yordan Alvarez .277, Alex Bregman .270, Myles Straw .262 [total: .271])

65+ Runs: 6 (Altuve 117, Correa 104, Alvarez 92, Gurriel, Tucker 83, Brantley 68)

65+ RBI: 5 (Alvarez 104, Correa, Tucker 92, Altuve 83, Gurriel 81)

10+ HRs: 8 (Alvarez 33, Altuve 31, Tucker 30, Correa 26, Gurriel 15, Chas McCormick 14, Bregman, Martin Maldonado 12)

5+ SBs: 3 (Straw 17, Tucker 14, Altuve 5)

BEST BUY: Ryan Pressly

With the dearth of bankable closers, Pressly has become one of the go-to guys. Pressly had just 26 SVs last year, a figure topped by 10 other relievers, but he deserved better. The Astros had a weirdly low 34 SVs as a team, well below the 46-SV average from the 11 teams with at least 90 wins. The Blue Jays joined them as the only teams in that group under 42 SVs (they tied HOU’s total of 34). I see Houston remaining strong and Pressly notching at least 30 SVs in 2022 with a reasonable shot at leading the league.

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95-67 (1st in Division; 5th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 51 (10th)

RP Wins: 44 (6th)

Saves: 44 (7th)

1+ Save: 6 (Josh Hader 34, Brad Boxberger 4, Devin Williams 3, Brent Suter, Aaron Ashby, Drew Rasmussen 1)

100+ Ks: 6 (Corbin Burnes 234, Brandon Woodruff 211, Freddy Peralta 195, Eric Lauer 117, Adrian Houser 105, Hader 102)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Willy Adames .285, Kolten Wong .272, Omar Narváez .266, Avisaíl García .262)

65+ Runs: 4 (Luis Urías 77, Wong, Christian Yelich 70, Garcia 68)

65+ RBI: 2 (Garcia 86, Urias 75)

10+ HRs: 7 (Garcia 29, Urias 23, Adames 20, Wong 14, Manny Piña 13, Tyrone Taylor 12, Narvaez 11)

5+ SBs: 8 (Lorenzo Cain 13, Wong 12, Jace Peterson 10, Yelich 9, Garcia 8, Jackie Bradley Jr. 7, Taylor 6, Urias 5)

BEST BUY: Christian Yelich

That’s right, gimme the guy coming off his dreadful 101 wRC+ season with 9 HR/SB in 475 PA. I’m just not sold that he’s cooked after a brutal season and a half. His struggles have pushed him outside of the top 100 picks (ADP of 104) and I’m taking the discount. His plate skills were back on track, but his batted ball profile still lagged throughout most of the season. With a better BABIP, this would’ve looked like one of his Marlins seasons. I obviously don’t think he gets all the way back to 2018-19 levels, but I’m taking the discount on a 30-year-old former MVP.

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93-69 (1st in Division; 6th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 61 (3rd)

RP Wins: 32 (18th)

Saves: 43 (8th)

1+ Save: 5 (Liam Hendriks 38, Aaron Bummer 2, Craig Kimbrel [total: 24], Matt Foster, Ryan Tepera 1)

100+ Ks: 6 (Dylan Cease 226, Lucas Giolito 201, Carlos Rodón 185, Lance Lynn 176, Hendriks 113, Michael Kopech 103)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Tim Anderson .309, Leury García .267, Yoán Moncada .263, José Abreu .261)

65+ Runs: 3 (Anderson 94, Abreu 86, Moncada 74)

65+ RBI: 1 (Abreu 117)

10+ HRs: 8 (Abreu 30, Yasmani Grandal 23, Anderson 17, Andrew Vaughn 15, Moncada 14, Luis Robert 13, Gavin Sheets 11, Eloy Jiménez 10)

5+ SBs: 5 (Anderson 18, Billy Hamilton 9, Adam Engel 7, Garcia, Robert 6)

BEST BUY: Yasmani Grandal

Grandal packed a full season into his 93 games last year and even managed to hit .240 despite returning from the IL on August 27th with a .203 AVG. From that point forward he hit .337/.481/.673 with 9 HR in 129 PA. The craziest part is that he was a waiver pickup for many because he was widely dropped after a torn left knee tendon required surgery in early-July. He recovered quickly and fully as his 209 wRC+ was the MLB’s best in that time. Grandal is regularly available after pick-100 (ADP of 110) as the 5th catcher off the board. Steamer sees another strong season coming: .235/.373/.458, 26 HR, 72 RBI, and 73 R in 536 PA.

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