2021 Roster Review: Milwaukee Brewers

95-67 (1st in Division; 5th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 51 (10th)

RP Wins: 44 (6th)

Saves: 44 (7th)

1+ Save: 6 (Josh Hader 34, Brad Boxberger 4, Devin Williams 3, Brent Suter, Aaron Ashby, Drew Rasmussen 1)

100+ Ks: 6 (Corbin Burnes 234, Brandon Woodruff 211, Freddy Peralta 195, Eric Lauer 117, Adrian Houser 105, Hader 102)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Willy Adames .285, Kolten Wong .272, Omar Narváez .266, Avisaíl García .262)

65+ Runs: 4 (Luis Urías 77, Wong, Christian Yelich 70, Garcia 68)

65+ RBI: 2 (Garcia 86, Urias 75)

10+ HRs: 7 (Garcia 29, Urias 23, Adames 20, Wong 14, Manny Piña 13, Tyrone Taylor 12, Narvaez 11)

5+ SBs: 8 (Lorenzo Cain 13, Wong 12, Jace Peterson 10, Yelich 9, Garcia 8, Jackie Bradley Jr. 7, Taylor 6, Urias 5)

BEST BUY: Christian Yelich

That’s right, gimme the guy coming off his dreadful 101 wRC+ season with 9 HR/SB in 475 PA. I’m just not sold that he’s cooked after a brutal season and a half. His struggles have pushed him outside of the top 100 picks (ADP of 104) and I’m taking the discount. His plate skills were back on track, but his batted ball profile still lagged throughout most of the season. With a better BABIP, this would’ve looked like one of his Marlins seasons. I obviously don’t think he gets all the way back to 2018-19 levels, but I’m taking the discount on a 30-year-old former MVP.

ON THE RISE: Willy Adames

We all know the story by now: Adames couldn’t see the ball clearly at Tropicana Field but played like an All-Star on the road. Prior to the trade, he had a .616 OPS at home and .864 on the road. Once he joined Milwaukee, he hit .802 at home and .957 on the road. This feels like just the beginning for the 26-year-old shortstop. There is definitely some swing-and-miss tradeoff to get to that power, but we haven’t seen his strikeouts substantially hurt him with a career .262 AVG in 1667 PA.

He also has some raw speed that Milwaukee might be able to tap into for some more SBs. He was just 4-for-6 with the Brewers and his 73rd percentile sprint speed was actually a career low (81-83% in three previous seasons). A double-digit SB total would be more of a gift than an expectation, but it’s not far-fetched to see some SB upside. The depth of SS makes him affordable (pick 136, SS18 in the last month of drafts) especially if he can do something like .260 AVG/27 HR/80 RBI/90 R/5 SB in a full season with the Brewers while also holding that sneaky 10-12 SB upside.

OFF THE RADAR: Rowdy Tellez

Tellez was a sleeper of mine last year, but obviously I didn’t want to put too much stock in a 127 PA run so he was still my 25th ranked 1B. I don’t say that cover myself, either he was a flop no matter how you slice it. That said, he got on track with Milwaukee. I don’t know that it was anything tied directly to the trade over simple regression. His strikeout and walk rates improved some, but the real difference was a 55-point BABIP jump to .300 with the Brewers. Had the playing time been there in Toronto, he could’ve easily had the same turnaround, but it wasn’t there and now he has a bead on at least the strong side platoon role at first base in Milwaukee (and more if the DH comes back to the NL). I still see 30-HR pop in this bat and now he is dirt cheap with an ADP of 365.

HOT TAKE: Luis Urías hits 30 HR. His breakout season was impressive and I’m buying in. He had a healthy approach with 20% K and 11% BB rates that paired with the power explosion (.196 ISO) for his quality season (111 wRC+, 23 HR). The foundation is there to push forward with the power and reach or exceed the 30-HR territory.

ICYMI: Kolten Wong had a nice little double-double in 116 games (14 HR/12 SB) and without the missed time he might have gone 20/20. If he can maintain the increased power (.175 ISO), perhaps he reaches the 20/20 mark in 2022.

IF THE DH RETURNS: It really helps Rowdy Tellez’s playing time first and foremost, but would also give some PT boosts to the likes of Keston Hiura and Mike Brosseau.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Josh
7 months ago

“…and without the missed time” what? I am going to stay here and refresh the page all night until the answer appears.