Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 12th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Welcome to the weekly chat!!

Jay (ATL): Love your stuff, just curious what you expect for McClanahan in year 2 with TB in regards to usage / going through a lineup 3x somewhat consistently, etc.?  I was a bit surprised to see you rank him ahead of Manoah and Baz for this year.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: He is an easy rank over Baz for me bc I see Baz on the McClanahan track, just a year behind. So I think McClanahan has a chance to push 180 IP this yr while Baz will be around the 120-125 we saw from McClanahan this year. McClanahan v. Manoah – I prefer McClanahan’s arsenal and he didn’t have the platoon issues we saw from Manoah. I trust McClanahan a bit more in year 2

Tiger Fan: Looking for a free (no-deposit) league to sample fantasy life. Do you have any recommendations?

Paul Sporer: If you can find a group of people, any of the free sites works. I don’t know the best outlet to play for free v. a random group of folks. Maybe someone else in chat has a recommendation there

diadem: How do you see the COL outfield shaking out? Will Joe start over Tapia and/or Hilliard or will it be a pretty even split of ab’s for the three? Also, your take on Tapia.

Paul Sporer: I see Joe getting a real shot at full time leaving Tapia and Hilliard fighting it out as Blackmon takes the other spot. They’re sort of opposite players so it kinda depends what player type they want

Keith: Seems like closers are going VERY early in drafts…take Hader/Hendriks in the 3rd/4th round or roll the dice with mid-level closers and likely play the FAAB game during the season?

Paul Sporer: Yeah the severe lack of bankable guys has pushed the studs up even further. I’m open to drafting the top end. I don’t like fighting tooth and nail for saves in season if I can avoid it

Leeroy Jenkins: Do you think Toro plays more or less everyday in Seattle?  Does that change if they sign someone like Bryant?

Paul Sporer: I think Toro mostly plays and I’m intrigued by him as a full-timer

Leeroy Jenkins: How many innings are we thinking for Tylor Megill this year?

Paul Sporer: Well if they get someone else to start over him, it’ll be lower, but I think he is good enough to hold the SP role all season and pitch 160-170 IP

Dennis: Looking to keep 4 SP’s in in my dynasty league. Feeling good about holding Nola, Giolito & Webb but struggling with the 4th choice. Ohtani (pitcher only), Gallen & Snell are my options.
Thoughts on which to keep?

Paul Sporer: I’d go for Gallen among those 3 options

Bostonian: How are you viewing Garret Whitlock? What kind of odds would you put on him getting a rotation spot? How sustainable is his 2021 performance?

Paul Sporer: I’m a little torn bc they seemed to imply he’d be starting, but now it looks like there isn’t a ton of room for him to do so after some of their moves, though the guys they got – Wacha and Hill – aren’t exactly workhorses. I really wish I had a read on Whitlock’s role for my early drafts, but that might offer a buying opportunity bc if it was known that he was closing or starting, he’d like be a good bit more expensive so maybe we just buy the talent and see what’s what

Vinnie: Favorite Tigers prospect outside of Greene/Tork/Jobe/DIngler?

Paul Sporer: I’m really excited to see Riley Greene!

Brad: What to do with Max Muncy with a January 31 keeper deadline?  I can keep him at below his market value if healthy.  If I cut him, the money I would save would buy me a solid player, but one that’s definitely not as good as a healthy muncy.  I would love to wait to hear more but I doubt I’ll know any more with the lockout likely to still be going on then.

Paul Sporer: I have been out on Muncy in my early drafts as I didn’t even rank him right now bc of the uncertainty surrounding his health. Love his talent and positional flexibility but I’m super nervous

Optimist: What’s your read on the prognosis for Verlander and Muncy? I see you have V at SP20 and Muncy is unranked at either 1B or 2B. Care to add any updates or color for those of us looking at keeper decisions?

Paul Sporer: Verlander appears on track to be ready for Spring Training so I am buying in despite the missed time and his age. I’m willing to take the gamble with him. Muncy could pay dividends if he’s healthy coming off this scare, but I’m just worried he winds up a full zero before the season even starts

Liriano’s Rookie Year: Can you share your opinions on Trevor Larnach? Is he anything more than a platoon player?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Larnach fan! He was brutal vL in his debut, but the power is legit and I’m willing to give him at least a full season of MLB work before pigeonholing him into a platoon role

Muncy: I’ve seen some reports that Muncy might well be ready by Opening Day?  Are they blowing smoke?

Paul Sporer: Hit me with a link or two if you have ’em. I’ve just only seen negative stuff so I’ve been super nervous

MadBum’s Dirt Bike: News out today – the O’s are moving the left field fence back as much as 30 ft (varies from point to point) and raising it by 5 feet. Gotta start accounting for that when looking at O’s hitters. . . .

Paul Sporer: Yep, tweeted it out yesterday after being made aware of the move. It’s a substantial deal. Helps the likes of John Means, but hurts their hitters for sure.

Broken bat: Paul, Does Sewald of M’s look like the MIRP that turns game over to Steck or Giles or visa-versa?

Paul Sporer: Yes I think it plays out that way. I don’t think Sewald closes and instead remains the fireman pitching key moments that could span more than an inning

Brad: Any post-hype sleeper guys you like this year?  I’m kinda into Brandon Marsh cause his batted ball data is nice and his whiff rates don’t suggest a 30% plus strikeout rate going forward

Paul Sporer: Nate Pearson, Cristian Pache, Carter Kieboom, Joey Bart, Ha Seong Kim

Leeroy Jenkins: Hit us all with the Muncy links if they’re legit, plz

Muncy: https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2021-11-29/dodgers-max-mu…

Hh: 10 team points league  picking out of the 10 spot. How likely is it I can start my draft Acuna, Alvarez, Robert and Buxton?

Paul Sporer: Definitely possible and that way you can fill your IL spots right away 😏

Salty: Do you think Magill has a spot in the Mets rotation, or is he potentially going to fall to next-man-up guy?  I’m optimistic for him next year, but he’d be tough to hold on to in a 14-team ML league without that coveted rotation spot.

Paul Sporer: As is, I think he has a spot. They could get someone else once the lockout is done, but I think they like Megill and will end up getting him a good # of innings this year

McLovin: AJ Pollock everyday outfielder for LAD until he gets hurt?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I can really only project 350-400 PA for him given his health, but they will likely be a good 350-400 PA

SS for days: How would you rank the long term dynasty value of Volpe, Mayer, and Peraza?

Paul Sporer: Probably Mayer, Volpe, Peraza for me

Optimist: Give me one SP in the top ~60 most likely to outperform his rank by 30 spots…

Paul Sporer: Luis Patiño, Joe Ryan, Patrick Sandoval

Phil: In a dynasty context (with K/9 as extra cat) would you trade now to acquire Kershaw? The risk is enormous, but if I waited until he was throwing/seemed healthy, the price would jump way up.

Paul Sporer: If you believe, yes, buy now. Older pitchers are already treated like lepers in dynasty leagues so throw in an injury history looming over him and Kershaw is likely very cheap to acquire

McLovin: Tyrone Taylor worth keeping for $3 or throw back and hope for $1?

Paul Sporer: Probably cutting and trying to get back for $1. League type matters, too, but it’d have to be an NL Only to consider keeping Taylor IMO or a very deep mixer

Fat Tub of Goo: Does Riley Greene strike you as another Andre Eithier?  Not that it’s a bad thing but the approach and swing are eerily similar.

Paul Sporer: I hadn’t made that connection, but ya that isn’t bad at all. That’d be great if he had that kind of career

Steve: What are your thoughts about George Valera possibly getting significant time in the Guardians’ OF this year?  What do you think he can do in ’22 and beyond?

Paul Sporer: It’s not impossible, but I’d say unlikely. The 21 yr old will likely play some more at Double-A and he’d have to just stand out at both AA and AAA to get a call this yr. Now maybe 10 yrs ago, I’d have said NO SHOT he can make it this yr based on how players were promoted, but he is at least on the radar in today’s gm, though a definite longshot

Salty: With your overall success last year (congrats), what is your plan for this year – stick to last year’s script or do you plan to make any general changes to draft prep/strategy for 2022 (without giving too much away)?

Paul Sporer: Thank you! I’m not making any sweeping changes in terms of the preparation as I feel that was the strongest part of my season last year so I will continue to focus on player pool knowledge and then I do have some in-season things I will be improving, adding to, tweaking to hopefully have another strong season

Salty: Speaking of Tylor – have read suggestions the Mets should make a play for Boyd – he would seem like a good pitcher for some team to speculate on.  Any sense where he may end up, and if the Mets did sign him, would he be a candidate for the rotation, or more likely a AAA stash since he should come cheap?

Paul Sporer: Not sure where he will end up, but I could see the Mets for Boyd or a Boyd-like substance which of course would hurt Megill in the short-term, but there is plenty of risk in their rotation such that Megill will get his innings

Clu Heywood: How would you recommend figuring out innings cap limits? I’m in a shallow ten team league that starts 3 SP, 2 RP, and 3 P (usually filled with closers).

Paul Sporer: I think a lot of leagues have been going around the 900 IP range at this point given how SP innings are evaporating

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, gotta be a tight hour this week, but I’ll be back next week with some time to go beyond the normal hour! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!