Paul Sporer’s 2022 SP Rankings

Almost done with the first set of rankings as I still have OF and RP coming after the SPs today. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.

Let’s discuss in the comments!

SP Rankings
1 Gerrit Cole
2 Walker Buehler
3 Jacob deGrom
4 Corbin Burnes
5 Max Scherzer
6 Brandon Woodruff
7 Zack Wheeler
8 Sandy Alcantara
9 Shane Bieber
10 Chris Sale
11 Aaron Nola
12 Logan Webb
13 Julio Urías
14 Max Fried
15 Joe Musgrove
16 Lucas Giolito
17 Lance Lynn
18 Kevin Gausman
19 Freddy Peralta
20 Frankie Montas
21 Justin Verlander
22 Trevor Rogers
23 Shohei Ohtani
24 Shane McClanahan
25 Jack Flaherty
26 Charlie Morton
27 Robbie Ray
28 Luis Castillo
29 José Berríos
30 Pablo López
31 Zac Gallen
32 Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진
33 Eduardo Rodriguez
34 Blake Snell
35 Yu Darvish
36 Alek Manoah
37 José Urquidy
38 Dylan Cease
39 Ian Anderson
40 Framber Valdez
41 Marcus Stroman
42 Clayton Kershaw
43 Tyler Mahle
44 Logan Gilbert
45 Shane Baz
46 Joe Ryan
47 Michael Kopech
48 Ranger Suárez
49 Tarik Skubal
50 Sean Manaea
51 Nathan Eovaldi
52 Carlos Rodón
53 Steven Matz
54 Lance McCullers Jr.
55 Drew Rasmussen
56 Luis Patiño
57 Aaron Civale
58 Triston McKenzie
59 Germán Márquez
60 John Means
61 Anthony DeSclafani
62 Sonny Gray
63 Luis Garcia
64 Chris Bassitt
65 Noah Syndergaard
66 Luis Severino
67 Mike Clevinger
68 Patrick Sandoval
69 Jordan Montgomery
70 Alex Cobb
71 Kyle Hendricks
72 Jon Gray
73 Tanner Houck
74 Aaron Ashby
75 Zach Plesac
76 Cal Quantrill
77 Casey Mize
78 Bailey Ober
79 James Kaprielian
80 Eric Lauer
81 Jameson Taillon
82 Carlos Carrasco
83 Tylor Megill
84 Huascar Ynoa
85 Adam Wainwright
86 Alex Wood
87 Wade Miley
88 Kyle Gibson
89 Josiah Gray
90 Domingo Germán
91 Cristian Javier
92 Garrett Whitlock
93 Nate Pearson
94 Adbert Alzolay
95 Reid Detmers
96 Luis Gil
97 Nestor Cortes Jr.
98 Andrew Heaney
99 Adrian Houser
100 Taijuan Walker
101 Dane Dunning
102 Yusei Kikuchi
103 Luke Weaver
104 Glenn Otto
105 Tony Gonsolin
106 Rich Hill
107 Zack Greinke
108 Stephen Strasburg
109 Corey Kluber
110 Matt Manning
111 Jesús Luzardo
112 Kris Bubic
113 Carlos Hernandez
114 Jake Odorizzi
115 Mike Minor
116 Zach Eflin
117 Marco Gonzales
118 Zach Thompson
119 Roansy Contreras
120 Brady Singer
121 Michael Pineda
122 Sixto Sánchez
123 Mike Soroka
124 Drew Smyly
125 Edward Cabrera
126 Garrett Crochet
127 Taylor Hearn
128 Chris Flexen 플렉센
129 Michael Wacha
130 Kyle Freeland
131 Cole Irvin
132 Elieser Hernandez
133 Dylan Bundy
134 Hunter Greene
135 Ryan Weathers
136 Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현
137 Chris Paddack
138 Miles Mikolas
139 Nick Martinez
140 Nick Pivetta
141 MacKenzie Gore
142 Tucker Davidson
143 Michael Lorenzen
144 Mitch White
145 Cody Morris
146 Jaime Barria
147 Dakota Hudson
148 Max Meyer
149 Ross Stripling
150 Mitch Keller
151 Chad Kuhl
152 Spencer Howard
153 Daulton Jefferies
154 Tyler Beede
155 Sammy Long
156 Kyle Muller
157 Eli Morgan
158 José Suarez
159 Danny Duffy
160 Grayson Rodriguez
161 Nick Lodolo
162 Austin Gomber
163 Ryan Yarbrough
164 Patrick Corbin
165 David Peterson
166 James Paxton
167 Brad Keller
168 A.J. Alexy
169 Erick Fedde
170 JT Brubaker
171 George Kirby
172 Cade Cavalli
173 Tyler Anderson
174 Justin Dunn
175 Merrill Kelly 켈리
176 Daniel Lynch
177 Vladimir Gutierrez
178 Yonny Chirinos
179 Caleb Smith
180 Madison Bumgarner
181 Matt Liberatore
182 David Price
183 Jordan Balazovic
184 Asa Lacy
185 Reynaldo Lopez
186 Griffin Canning
187 Matthew Boyd
188 Kyle Wright
189 Reiver Sanmartin
190 Cole Winn
191 Antonio Senzatela
192 Johnny Cueto
193 Johan Oviedo
194 Clarke Schmidt
195 Touki Toussaint
196 Brent Honeywell Jr.
197 Jakob Junis
198 Zach Davies
199 Sam Hentges
200 Chris Archer

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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What to do about Buehler is the most fascinating question of ranking season for me. He’s coming off a career low K% (26.0) and beat all his ERA estimators by quite a bit, with xFIP (3.57) and SIERA (3.73) strongly disputing the idea that he deserved anything close to his 2.47 ERA. Do you see anything in his profile that suggests he’ll post a similar ERA in 2022 despite underlying numbers that look a lot more like Jose Berrios (your SP29) than the guys you’ve ranked around him?

casey j
casey j

Hard to argue with 207 innings of that sort of quality, on a team like that, as well as at least a theoretical better of odds of staying healthy


I don’t think ehalt found it hard to argue about that at all. LOL

Buhners Rocket Arm
Buhners Rocket Arm

Buehler’s floor is Berrios’s ceiling. With Buehler’s age he’s and past track record he’s about as safe a bet to return his investment as a SP1 as can be. 5×5 is about minimizing risk at the top of the draft, so if you want to grab a frontline starter he’s less likely than the guys listed after him to yank your team, even if his ceiling is a bit lower than others. I’m generally not buying a lot of the Steamer projections that seem to be vastly overrating 2020.

casey j
casey j

My exact point. You just said it better: The innings, the home park, the team he’s on, the wins, the chance that he will make every start. If upside is his drawback, I’ll take it, because there is all kinds of upside there as well.


One thing to consider is that Dodger starters consistently beat their FIP, as a staff, for multiple seasons now. WB beat his by more than usual, but Dodger starting pitching as a unit over the last 4 seasons is a quarter run better than it’s FIP. That’s a lot of innings and pitchers for the sample to be due to randomness alone.