Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 5th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Happy New Year!

Paul Sporer: I’m getting my lunch together and made a mess, sorry for the delay lol

James: Paul! Long time no chat (for me, at least). Where would you rank Gallo among OFs in a league where AVG is replaced by OBP?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got him mid-30s right now and I’d probably jump him 10-12 spots in OBP leagues

Paul Sporer: I’ve got Gilbert highest by a good bit. Unquestioned spot unlike Houck and not coming off a substantial injury that ended his season early unlike Sandoval. It’s a great trio so I’m interested in rostering any of the 3, but Gilbert is the choice if it’s just 1 pick: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2022-sp-rankings/

SH: Houck, Sandoval or Gilbert for 2022? Explain

Paul Sporer: Should probably put the question I’m answering FIRST! I’ve had a few weeks off for chats, so I’m rusty!!!

Yuniesky Betancourt: Who does MLB: The Show do the dirtiest? Someone who is much better in real life than in the game?

Paul Sporer: Hmmm that’s a great question. I can think of the inverse instantly as both Mike Zunino and Joey Gallo are GODSSSS in the game while not playing quite as well IRL (though big Z had an excellent season in ’21). On the other end, hmmm… and we’re only talking Live Series cards here bc specialty cards usually make up for these shortcomings… I think my pick is Emmanuel Clase. His live card doesn’t fully capture his amazingness.

Hale: are you as terrified to draft Louis Robert as I am, healthy he is worth the price. If not its a disaster, am I crazy for being scared of him?

Paul Sporer: I can understand some concern paying a top 20 pick for someone with 124 MLB gms under his belt, but the skills profile is so rich for fantasy. As someone who hasn’t been afraid to pay up for Mondesi and Buxton over the years, I can get behind taking the shot on Robert

Guest: Why is Sewald going so low amongst closers? He had the job at the end of the year and was very good too? Is the disconnect SEA signing more bullpen help, or lack of track record?
He had the 2nd highest K% among relivers with 60+ IP in 2021

Paul Sporer: Wasn’t Steck mostly closing down the stretch. I think he’s being seen as the guy coming into ’22 which is why Sewald isn’t going all that high

GZ: Which SP do you think has the highest floor, or is most likely to finish as an SP1? Including health risks.

Paul Sporer: if I’m picking *most* likely to finish #1, it’d be Cole or Buehler

Paul Sporer: and then if we get word on deGrom’s health being ready to roll, he jumps back to the top

Datt Mamon: Keibert Ruiz – viable fantasy C for 2022?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! He’s widely regarded in the market so far, going at 8th C off the board (ADP of pick 153).

Sean: Is it crazy to think India will be better than Albies next year?

Paul Sporer: Not crazy at all. I’m an Albies guy through and through, but they are close enough to prefer India if you like him better

BBall: When are the ATC projections coming out?

Paul Sporer: Would have to check w/Ariel on that!

Lloyd: Paul, 15 teamer, keeper round in parenthesis, please pick 5.
Sandy Alcantara (4)
Schwarber (7)
J. Montgomery (8)
Ray (15)
Rodon (15)
Severino (15)
Votto (15)
Teoscar (16)
Jorge Polanco (20)
Many thanks!

Paul Sporer: Polanco, Teoscar, Ray, Votto (does one up go up to 14 if you keep two 15s?), and even though he’s essentially full price, I’ll take Alcantara as the 5th. You’re getting so much plus value on the other four that I think you can afford to just take the best player w/the 5th pick

Broken Bat: heard your pod regarding Houck. The splits between first half and Second half  show real,growth. Former first rounder and huge. He will be top 45 starters in 2022 IMO. Easy to pass Hill and Wacha. His stuff (slider led) is makings of Of an Ace. Regret placing him 70ish?

Paul Sporer: No no, I don’t regret it. I’m big on Houck. The main reason he is down there is uncertainty regarding his workload. I think his upside is top 45 SPs, but I can’t slot him there to start the year

Greg: Who would you be surprised most at winning a Cy Young in 2022: Webb, Snell, or Rogers?

Paul Sporer: Just based on their recent work, it’d have to be Snell even though he has 1 under his belt. All 3 have the talent to contend for the award, though

Bob Villar: Anthony Rendon or Christian Yelich in a 5×5 OBP based league?

Paul Sporer: Rendon for me. Both have some health concerns, but Rendon hasn’t really seen the skills fall off that Yelich has

Retirees: Buster Posey and Kyle Seager are the rare retirees who were still fantasy relevant. We were trying to remember who else retired on a roster in our 10-teamer over the last decade and came up with Big Papi. Can you remember anyone else who retired rosterable in shallow leagues?

Paul Sporer: It was kind of a forced retirement, but Jermaine Dye jumps out. His 2009 was a drop from his big 2008, but he was still a good hitter that had 27 HR, 81 RBI, and 78 R. Even at 36, it was still shocking he couldn’t land anywhere!

Richie: Hey Paul. Is Bellinger someone you’d be targeting in keep forever 5×5 leagues? Would you rather have him or Matt Olson? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Bellinger is OF-only so it’s an OF v. 1B and a price debate. Belly is about 60 picks cheaper so do we think the discount is enough to buyback. I think I’d still prefer the more expensive Olson. Not to fence sit (Olson is the pick if you just want my one choice over the other), but I’d be open to rostering both

James: If you had to handicap Akil Baddoo’s chances of putting together a 20/20 season, what would they be?

Paul Sporer: Like a % chance? Let’s say with a PA qualifier otherwise it’s a little too broad. If he reaches 550+ PA, I’d give him like a 60-65% chance of getting there. I reeeaaaallly liked his development in-season last year and think there is a bright future ahead!

Jacob Hernandez: Who do you think finds more success next year and over the next three years: Meadows or Verdugo?

Paul Sporer: I like Verdugo by a little. Strong plate skills build that strong AVG foundation while Meadows’ profile isn’t super hard to replicate elsewhere in the draft. Plus, Verdugo could see his pwr grow in the coming years and become even better

SP: If McCullers looks healthy in spring training, where would he move up to on your SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: Maybe a handful of spots, but it won’t be a substantial move. Love the talent, but the health has been a persistent issue and he’s coming off injury so even if healthy in spring, I’m still penciling him for 130-140 IP max given his history

Guest: I have a slew of backend keeper options in my 5×5 with a 400 player universe (and 32 N/A prospects) and I am having trouble ranking them. Which 4-5 jump out the most to you?

Josh Rojas $6 (3yrs eligibility), Segura $7 (3yrs), Gleyber $10 (1yr), Baddoo $2 (3yrs), Matt Chapman $4 (1yr), Amed Rosario $1 (3yrs), Hampson $9 (3yrs), Kirk $3 (3yrs), McGee $14 (3yrs), Aguilar $15 (3yrs), Trevor Bauer $18 (1yr), Royce Lewis $1 (4yrs), Nolan Jones $3 (4yrs)

Guest: (I had asked that backend keeper question earlier…Aguilar is $15 not $10 – sorry!)

Paul Sporer: Baddoo, Chapman, Rosario, Kirk, Gleyber jump out. I want to like Rojas… I mean, I do like him, but I want to like him more in this list, yet I can’t when I see Segura for just a dollar more. He’s a better bet in that instance.

G Money: Is Suarez a top 25 starting pitcher?

Paul Sporer: Not for me – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2022-sp-rankings

Paul Sporer: Don’t forget to bookmark our draft kit w/all the pertinent links for 2022 drafts including mine & Justin’s rankings: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2022-fangraphs-draft-kit/

Yoshida: Ariel said 2.5 weeks on twitter on January 3rd

Paul Sporer: re: ATC projections

Guest: Which ace SP’s are you staying away from this year?

Paul Sporer: Ray is probably the only market ace that I’m not paying the price for. He’s SP16 in the market and I have him down at SP25

Paul Sporer: BTW, I just realized I haven’t added my SP rankings to that Draft Kit link so I’m here directing ppl to it for SP ranks that aren’t even on there yet. I’m sorry, that’s on me. Adding right now!

G Money: Where do you feel T Story will end up and if he leaves Col, can he still be a top 20 player?

Paul Sporer: I’d be really surprised if they re-sign him, but they seem to always do the unexpected (often on the stupid end) so maybe. As for his status as a potential Top 20 outside of Coors, it’ll depend a ton on how much he runs in a new place and what kind of AVG he can sustain. Coors is great and definitely helps, but it doesn’t make a player so I think his power output will be fine. Can he hit .260 plus and swipe 20+ bases in his new home?

AJ: Jared Walsh or Rhys Hoskins in 2022 year? Explain.

Paul Sporer: I’m a Walsh guy, but I did move Hoskins up from the 1B rankings you see on site (up to 14). I still have some concerns about Hoskins’ health, but I realized after getting some pushback on the ranking that it’s not quite as concerning as I originally believed

Zigs^: Surprised to hear you so down on conforto. Guy was a top 20 hitter as of a couple year ago and is still young headed to a better ballpark. Is there something I’m missing here? Seems like an injury season

Paul Sporer: When was he a top-20 hitter? 2019 was great, but I don’t think he finished quite that high. He’s 29 and we don’t know where he’s going yet. I’m just playing it a bit cautiously right now, but I’m not too far off the market (he’s OF50 in early drafts)

Dave: Hypothetical: you can magically be friends with another MLB pitcher instead of Snell but you’d have to stop being friends with Snell – who (if anyone) would you pick?

Paul Sporer: I don’t want to overstate our friendship, but Blake is the man. I wouldn’t trade, not even for Verlander. Snell has been such a good dude that even in the hypothetical I can’t move on lol

Zigs^: Why does everyone think soto has the closer job over Fulmer in DET? Fulmer finished the season with the job, has the skills, and the contract. You are the Detroit guy, what do you think?

Paul Sporer: Well Soto was named closer by Hinch

Paul Sporer: https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2021/10/05/detroit-tiger…

Messi: Expectations on Starling Marte? Killed it last year

Paul Sporer: More greatness! I doubt another 47 SBs are on the way, but I don’t see a big fall off. He will remain a wonderful power-speed stud

Guest: Quick Outlook on Garrett Whitlock and Aaron Ashby? both look to possibly move to starters but with Whitlock there is a chance he stays in the Pen?

Paul Sporer: Gotta direct you to the pod where both are discussed in detail! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-997…

Jon: Think teoscar has another level or have we seen his peak?

Paul Sporer: I missed on him bc I didn’t wanna pay full price for 2-month season since there weren’t any real profile changes. So of course he goes out this past yr and makes the 2-month run look legit with tangible profile changes en route to a brilliant year. I’d tab that as a the peak, though. He could plateau and hold this level, but I’d be surprised if there was another level still.

Bro Pat: In a keep 5 forever league, did I miss my window to trade Jacob deGrom for his highest value?

Paul Sporer: Definitely. He was obv still great last year, but being limited to 92 IP puts a big damper on him for many fantasy folks

Jacob Hernandez: Rank the chances at a closer spot next year: Treinen, D. Williams, or Loaisiga.

Paul Sporer: Their chances are in the order listed IMO. Treinen will close if they don’t bring Jansen back, Dev will still be behind Hader, and Loaisiga is def behind Chapman and perhaps even behind Green

Analyst: Is there any chance FGs could create transcripts for Podcasts? Podcasts are of little value for the hearing impaired and those of us who don’t have the time to listen.

Paul Sporer: You’re not the first to ask and I’ve been meaning to look into this. It’s on my to-do and I will see if there is a way we can get that done for the pods!

DFan: Bassitt at 64? Seems like he should be in the 30s. Is his low ranking due to his injury or other factors?

Guest: Reading the comments in response to your SP rankings, it seems the most common theme is “how dare you rank these players in a different order than they finished last year!” Does it drive you insane to have to deal with that?

Paul Sporer: DFan, I’m not trying to roast you, but these comments came in back-to-back and it was kinda perfect bc you’re not the first to pushback on the Bassitt ranking and it is obviously influenced quite a bit by just how well he did last year. He was great and I like him, but do we really think a 33-yr old command and control profile who just hit his peak IP (157.3) is a good bet for a top 30-40 season this year? I could see another ’19, but even that was only SP45

Paul Sporer: And re: the specific question about comments leaning so much on the previous, it doesn’t drive me insane. I totally get it, but I do think we as a fantasy community lean waaaaay too hard on the most recent year for our analysis

Broken Bat: Trout, Buxton, Betts, Judge in a 4×4. You get one for 2 years. Rank them.

Paul Sporer: Betts, Trout, Judge, Buxton. I know the 4×4 could really help Buxton, but he’s going against 3 dudes w/MVPs or at least MVP-caliber seasons so I’d def lean toward any one of them over him first

John: Standard 12 team 5×5 with 360 players. Would you consider and how would you rank Nico Hoerner, Nick Senzel, and Sam Hilliard?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Hilliard, Hoerner, Senzel. Senzel is just impossible to trust w/his health profile

Andy Dirks: Andy Dirks

Paul Sporer: Agreed!

Fureal: Lol at India even close to Albies

Paul Sporer: Based on what? I imagine you’re just look at the 2021 lines but that’s just such a narrow focus. India was a rookie. Again, I’m an Albies guy all the way, but if you don’t think they’re even close then I can’t really help ya

Turgid: Keep Trea for $44 or Starling for $17?

Paul Sporer: I think the discount is too sharp not to take Marte there

Paul Mushroomer: how do you feel about The Show using attributes that are above 100? Tommy Lasorda is rolling in his grave right now!

Paul Sporer: I like it. I think we need to move beyond a 0-99 (or 100 in OOTP’s case) for Overalls on cards.

Bro Pat: Are you and Justin further apart on Pavin Smith than you and Rob Silver are on Wordle?

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL

Paul Sporer: I can understand Rob’s beef with mock drafts, but I think he was just playing the role of curmudgeon with the Wordle take. It’s a fun new game that is super popular right now. It reminded me of the cartoon where one character is pinching the other’s lips and whispering to him “let people enjoy things” or something to effect!

Paul Sporer: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/let-people-enjoy-things

Paul Mushroomer: Another Show question: what’s your hitting approach? Hitting is hard (like real life), I could use all the tips I can find.

Paul Sporer: Patience, patience, patience! I’m not a great player by any stretch, but I’m above average and I didn’t really take a step forward until I stopped getting myself out all the time by flailing at the first or second pitch of every at-bat. Sometimes I will literally set the controller on my lap until 2 strikes. Sure, sometimes it’s 0-2 right away, but plenty of time I wind up in a deep count and now the pitcher is coming into the zone with a hittable fastball

quincy: Who do you like better r Ortega, Connor joe or lane Thomas . All the same price

Paul Sporer: I’m on the Lane Thomas train. That train is starting to fill up, but it’s still very open for newcomers! Could be the latest ex-Cardinal to incense their fans when he pops off elsewhere, but this is just payback for the years of Devil Magic they’ve enjoyed. Thomas should have a full-time role and likely leading off, too. Think he’s an easy double-double (10+ HR/SB) with some 20-20 upside

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow and Friday and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!