Author Archive: Mike Podhorzer

About four years ago, Matt Swartz helped me find that strikeout and walk rates posted during spring training for starting pitchers do have some predictive value. It’s very small, of course, but it’s there, and using the data improved the pre-season projection. The findings were validated when Dan Rosenheck completed an exhaustive study and discovered the same thing a year ago. It’s not the surface stats that matter, which we knew, but the underlying skill metrics, like strikeout and walk rates, that hold some value. It’s not much value, but it’s not nothing like some of us may have thought.

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At last, it’s the final Pod’s Picks and Pans, as we finish things off with catcher. In the past, there have been years I haven’t even published a catcher version because there just wasn’t much disagreement. Which is strange because often times we all know the top tier, which is Buster Posey first, a couple of guys in the next couple of slots, and then a massive tier where we could make a reasonable case for a slew of guys to finish the season at said ranking at season’s end. Luckily, this year there does seem to be some disagreement worth discussing. Here are the updated consensus rankings.

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You’re not sick of reading about my Picks and Pans yet, right? Of course not, you love them! We’re winding down the series and today we move along to the starting pitchers. As you no doubt have argued in the comments, my valuations take innings into consideration. It has to. We’re valuing the player’s contributions to our team. This is from a strict dollar value perspective. This is different than where I might suggest drafting the player in a snake draft, as I’d be more willing to take a lower ranked pitcher projected for better ratios than a higher ranked one with worse ratios, but more innings.

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Let’s go picking and panning once again, this time at the second base position. The updated RotoGraphs consensus rankings, from which I am comparing mine to the rest of the gang’s, are here.

For the second base position, my Picks will only include those in my top 20 and my Pans will only include those in the Consensus top 20.

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It’s another day of picking and panning, and today we move onto the shortstop position. A discrepancy in ranking could really only be for one of two reasons (or both) — either a difference in projected performance or a difference in converting that projected performance into a ranking or dollar value. It’s not always easy to figure out what is causing the gap, but it is always interesting to discover who I am more bullish and bearish on than the gang.

For the shortstop position, my Picks will only include those in my top 20 and my Pans will only include those in the Consensus top 20.

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Last week, I brought back the Pod’s Picks series, though renamed it this time since not every player was technically a “pick”. Pod’s Picks and Pans compares my ranking to the consensus (excluding my rank) at each position to determine who I am most bullish and bearish on relative to the rest of the rankers. Thanks to commenter bubba munga, I have calculated the rankings difference using a new method, involving the LN function on Excel. This properly weighs the more significant difference between picks five and 10 versus 35 and 41, despite the latter pair being six picks apart, as opposed to just give in the former.

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Expect the Unexpected.

That’s the mantra you must repeat to yourself daily as you head into your auction or snake draft. Because as much as you think you know your room and how you feel about every player, you are wrong. Trust me.

On Saturday morning, I headed to SiriusXM studios in New York City for one of the best days of the year — the American League Only Tout Wars league auction. Here’s a brief review of the rules:

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Last week, we kicked off updated rankings season. Several years ago, I began a series that has become an annual tradition – Pod’s Picks. When I manually project players for my Pod Projections, I rarely look at what the other systems are projecting. So I typically have little idea as to whether I’m bullish or bearish on a player, or my expectations are similar to everyone else’s. Outside of the projections, we all use different valuation systems. Even given the same projected line, two fantasy owners could potentially arrive at drastically different values for the same player. All this is a way of me saying that I never know who I like and who I dislike, compared to the market, until I see my rankings or dollar values directly compared to other sets.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Let’s rewind to spring training of 2015. It was one in which the hype became deafening for Taijuan Walker. He pitched 27 innings, allowing just two runs, for a microscopic 0.67 ERA. His underlying peripherals (ya know, the spring stats that might actually matter) were strong too, but it was most certainly that tiny ERA that took Walker from sleeper and breakout candidate into that risky territory in which he has to break out just to break even for his fantasy owners. So how were his new owners rewarded? With a luscious 4.56 ERA. Oops. His skills were excellent though and he managed to post a more respectable 3.69 SIERA. So is this the breakout year?

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It’s time for another (and perhaps final) comparison between my Pod Projections and Steamer. Today we’ll look at another starting pitcher who I am significantly more bullish on by ERA than Steamer.

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