Mike Podhorzer’s 2016 Bold Predictions

It brings tears to my eyes seeing the Bold Predictions series I first started here at RotoGraphs back in 2011 so enthusiastically embraced. In that first post, I actually doled out 20 boldies, giving myself double the chances to look like a fool! This year, few of my bold predictions will be a surprise, as the majority of these names have appeared in at least one of my preseason articles, signaling a clear bullish or bearish stance.

1. Stephen Piscotty hits 25 home runs

Shocked I would lead off with Piscotty, huh? Two months ago, I asked if Piscotty was the “Superest of the Stars“, as I analyzed his rookie performance. I am most excited about his power potential. Last year, Eno discussed the mechanical changes Piscotty made during the 2014 offseason to tap into his power. While the .189 ISO he posted with the Cardinals is pretty good, more impressive was the 301 average batted ball distance and 20.6% xHR/FB rate. If he hits second all year and remains healthy, he’ll reach 650 plate appearances. He would have to post a 16% to 17% HR/FB rate to reach 25 homers, assuming the same strikeout and fly ball rates he posted in 2015.

2. Juan Nicasio strikes out 150 batters

One of this spring’s surprising stars, I identified Nicasio Wednesday as a spring strikeout rate surger and potential breakout candidate. It was later announced that day that he had officially won a rotation spot. The Pirates had to give him that chance after he struck out nearly 41% of the batters he faced during the spring. His ability to record 150 strikeouts will depend on whether he can throw enough innings to even have any chance whatsoever. There are two obstacles he must overcome to amass enough innings — he has only thrown more than 100 innings in the Majors once and recorded just 58.1 last year, and his career ERA stands at 4.88, so he’ll have to actually pitch well enough for the Pirates to allow him to reach an innings level to get those strikeouts.

Let’s remember that before last season, he had pitched his entire career in the hitter’s haven known as Coors Field, which reduces strikeouts and inflates offense. If the subtle mechanical changes he has made under Ray Searage’s tutelage sticks, he maintains the majority of the velocity he found as a reliever last year, that extra oompsh improves his slider, he mixes up the location of his pitches better, and it all leads to major improvement versus lefties, then perhaps he’ll get the innings needed to reach 150 strikeouts. That’s a lot of ifs though, which is why this is BOLD.

3. Xander Bogaerts ranks outside the top 7 shortstops

SURPRISE! Just kidding, you’re not surprised at all. You know exactly what I’m projecting for Bogaerts this year. In two full seasons, his batted ball distance has not exceeded 270 feet. Those expecting a power spike are just wishcasting. So what if that power doesn’t improve like we all figure it will (some more so than others, obviously)? What if his BABIP regresses even more drastically than forecasted? What if the steals completely disappear and revert to his 2014 level? What if he quickly shows himself as an empty .270 batting average and gets dropped in the order, out of the favorable three hole? That’s the downside and it is clearly being ignored given his hefty draft day price.

4. Every member of the Royals opening day rotation (Edinson Volquez, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura, Chris Young, Kris Medlen) will post a sub-4.00 ERA

Last year, only Volquez and Young did. This season, Medlen transitions back to the rotation after returning from TJ surgery and serving in a relief role, while Kennedy comes over from the National League after posting a 4.28 ERA. The key here is the insanely good Royals defense. They are projected to be the best defense in baseball again…by far. They also figure to feature the best outfield defense in baseball, which will help Young keep outperforming his SIERA and be a boon for Kennedy as a fly ball pitcher. Medlen is now further away from surgery and his velocity has been up this spring. Ventura posted a 3.69 SIERA last year. He doesn’t even need to exhibit growth, just enjoy some BABIP improvement. Volquez makes me the most nervous, but his new lower strikeout, better control self is fine on a team with such a fantastic defense.

5. Zack Cozart ranks inside the top 10 among shortstops

Cozart was one of the pickiest of the Pod’s Picks this year, and you all wondered what the heck I was smoking. Good news has already come in the form of Bryan Price’s announcement that Billy Hamilton will open the year at the bottom of the lineup, while Cozart sits at the top. Even if Hamilton eventually finds himself back at leadoff, there’s always the possibility that Cozart simply gets bumped down to the two hole, while current two-holer Eugenio Suarez drops to the bottom. Obviously, it will likely depend on how each is hitting at the time.

Cozart enjoyed a mini breakout last year before busting up his knee that cut his season short. Sure, it was a small sample size and all, but it’s hard to fluke your way into a 25 foot jump in batted ball distance and a 10 point jump from his previous career high, set back in 2012. He also pushed his fly ball rate above 40% for the first time, further validating that he was consciously tapping into more power. Cozart did show power in the minors leagues, and he’ll get the huge counting stat boost from all those extra plate appearances while batting first.

6. If you roster Victor Martinez, you get nothing! You lose! Good day sir! More specifically, V-Mart is worthless

Assume that worthless is based on Zach Sanders’ end of season value calculation, which is calculated for 12-team mixed leagues. I was inspired to balance the scales on the rabid bullishness displayed by my RotoGraphs brethren after Chad Young shared the most common bold predictions. For some odd reason, a 37-year-old is fueling excitement about a bounceback year. Perhaps this is due to the flukiest of the fluky performance Martinez enjoyed in 2014. He hit 32 home runs that season, a career high. He posted a 6.6% strikeout rate, a career low. He posted a 16% HR/FB rate, a career high. Since when do 35 year olds have career years?! The answer is when it’s a fluke.

Pretend that season never happened. Ignore it. Remove it from your performance history when forecasting for this season. Martinez is already dealing with injury issues. He can’t run and would be lucky to break 70 runs scored. Without the prospect of a dramatic power rebound, you see the risk you endure when you roster a player reliant on BABIP and batting average. Sure, he wasn’t fully healthy last year, which is certainly party to blame. But again, he’s 37 years old this season!

7. Zack Greinke ERA above 3.50

Greinke is coming off an historic season. How historic? His 86.5% LOB% was the fifth highest in baseball history among qualified starters (among the 9,358 player seasons on FanGraphs), while his .229 BABIP ranked as the 112th lowest. This is quite remarkable given that Greinke’s career LOB% pales in comparison to the league’s best pitchers, while his BABIP actually sits above the league average. His strikeout rate is good, but far from elite, and now he’s 32 years old. His SIERA sat at 3.27 last year, and he hasn’t made it a habit of outperforming it through his career (3.35 ERA versus 3.50 SIERA).

But the most significant driver of my pessimism is the park switch. For the vast majority of his carer, Greinke has played in a home park that has suppressed offense. No longer. Chase Field in Arizona sports a 104 Basic park factor, which ranks tied for fourth highest in baseball. It boosts doubles, triples, and home runs, and reduces pop-ups. So, park factors + luck regression + skill erosion due to age makes this an easy bold prediction call.

8. Wil Myers goes 25-90 (homers-RBI)

Can you believe that Myers is still just 25 years old?! It seems like he has been disappointing forever. Myers made it onto my “hitters with major HR/FB rate upside” list two months ago, as his batted ball distance hit a new career high after surging by 28 feet, leading to an impressive 21.9% xHR/FB rate. He should be past his wrist issues and looks to be fully healthy. Whether he can stay that way is an open question, of course. He’s slated to hit cleanup, which will afford him a ton of RBI opportunities. Only bad health could seemingly get in the way of hitting those milestones.

9. Corey Dickerson ranks outside the top 50 outfielders

So let’s see — Dickerson leaves the game’s best offensive environment for one of the worst, is a lock to sit against southpaws, stopped stealing bases, and dealt with plantar fasciitis last year, which is a condition that tends to linger. And yet he’s the 35th outfielder off the board in NFBC leagues?! Even if he played all season while starting against righties, I’m still unsure he would crack the top 50. Throw in the real risk of missed time due to injury, and he’s quite clearly being overdrafted.

10. Rubby De La Rosa outearns Shelby Miller

It’s been rather trendy to predict decline for Miller, but he has still been the 45th starting pitcher taken in NFBC leagues. Rubby, on the other hand, is outside the top 100 at 113! The bear story on Miller is obvious — the park switch hurts (see Greinke’s blurb above), and his SIERA has sat above 4.00 for the past two seasons. How long can he continue to suppress BABIP and HR/FB?

Rubby is on the other end of the spectrum, underperforming his peripherals. However, his underlying skills aren’t all that impressive. In fact, they are actually very similar to Miller’s, who I’m criticizing. But here’s the difference — Rubby seemingly has major skills growth potential, which should drive his SIERA, and ERA, significantly lower. His four-seamer (which averages 94+ mph), slider and changeup were all better at inducing swinging strikes than the league average last year, so the stuff is clearly there, but hasn’t translated into a strong strikeout rate…yet. The HR/FB rate will come down, but he’ll need to figure out how to get lefties out. That’s something we just have to hope he can accomplish, as it’s really all that’s between him and a major breakout.