Late last season, the wonderful people at MLBAM graced us with a gift from the heavens — a new stat called Barrels. While there’s specific criterion that must be met to be considered a “barrel”, essentially, it’s a ball that a batter hits the crap out of. The stat is available on the Statcast leaderboard, which also includes the total number of batted ball events recorded for the batter. That allows for the calculation of an easy ratio, dubbed Barrles per Batted Ball Event, or Brls/BBE. I used this metric as the primary component of my Statcast-fueled xHR/FB rate. So now that the fine folks over at MLBAM have updated the numbers for the season, it’s time to dive in. Let’s begin by simply checking in on the leaders.

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With all the talk about hitters increasing their launch angles, and therefore they fly ball rates, that would mean pitcher fly ball percentages are rising as well. Remember though that unlike for hitters, it’s less black and white as to whether an increased fly ball rate is a good or bad thing. It’s heavily dependent on context, such as the pitcher’s outfield defense and home park. So let’s take a look at which AL starting pitchers have seen their FB% jump most versus last year and determine whether it’s a positive change or not.

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This is an interesting pair of recommendations, as an established vet shares the same low ownership as a younger, relatively unknown quantity.

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Yesterday, I discussed 10 hitters whose FB% has increased the most compared to last year. So now let’s check in on the other end of the list — the hitters whose FB% has declined the most versus last season. These hitters may be in danger of disappointing in the home run department.

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With the availability of Statcast data from the past couple of years, all we hear about now is exit velocities and launch angles. Armed with new data, players are adjusting and learning to become the best versions of themselves. We keep hearing about hitters that are increasing their launch angles, which is just a fancy way of saying they are hitting more fly balls. More fly balls usually results is more home runs. And home runs are good. The league fly ball rate currently sits at its highest mark since 2011, but since the HR/FB rate is at a historical high tied with last year, home runs are flying out like never before.

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Last week, I discussed the American League starting pitchers that have improved their Z-Contact% the most. Let’s now check in on the pitchers whose Z-Contact% has risen the most.

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It’s time once again to dive into the free agent pool to uncover some hidden gems.

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Earlier this year, I developed the newest incarnation of my xHR/FB ratio, this time taking advantage of the Splits Leaderboard sent from the heavens. When researching the components of the equation, I calculated a 0.229 correlation between Fly Ball Pull% and HR/FB rate. That’s no surprise, as most batters have far greater pull power than power to any other part of the field. So then it follows that a batter who suddenly pulls their fly balls at a significantly higher rate could enjoy a power breakout. Let’s take a gander at the fantasy relevant hitters that have seen the largest gains in Fly Ball Pull% versus last year.

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In his debut season last year, Ryan Schimpf enjoyed one of the most extreme set of underlying skills I have ever observed. He posted the second highest fly ball rate over a single season since 2002, the first year we have data for. He also hit a ton of pop-ups and few line drives. Oh, and he struck out over 30% of the time and walked at a double digit clip. He was a man of extremes.

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What do we do to analyze players this early in the season? Focus on the underlying metrics that stabilize quickest and try to spot early changes. While our sample size stabilization points don’t include any advanced metrics, I would bet that the plate discipline metrics, including Z-Contact%, would sit on the low end in terms of how many plate appearances or batters faced they require to reach the calculated stabilization points. So let’s dive into the American League starting pitchers that have improved their Z-Contact% most from last year. Is there anything more illustrative of the quality of a pitcher’s stuff than making a batter miss a pitch in the strike zone?

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