Last week, I discussed five surprising American League starting pitchers sitting among the leaders in SwStk%. All of them had enjoyed surging versus 2016. Today, I’ll discuss pitchers on the other side of the coin, surprises toward the bottom of the SwStk% leaderboard, all of whom have suffered declines compared to last season.
Feeling the injury or underperformance blues? It’s your lucky day!
Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate to validate which of the surprise HR/FB rate leaders appear to have legitimately enjoyed a power surge in the early going. Today, I’ll look at the surprising names closer to the bottom of the HR/FB rate leaderboard, all of whom are validated by shockingly low xHR/FB rate marks. Like for the leaders, this doesn’t necessarily mean it’s panic time if you’re an owner, but simply that it appears poor fortune has little to do with the power outage. The batter simply hasn’t been barreling it up like he typically has, for whatever reason.
For the third week in a row, we once again use Statcast’s Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event) as the primary component of my xHR/FB rate, to analyze hitter HR/FB rates. Today, I’ll use xHR/FB rate to validate some of the surprise HR/FB rate leaders. This doesn’t necessarily mean the hitter is going to sustain this pace — their Brls/BBE could certainly decline, and given that it’s likely quite high now, it probably will — but that what has happened so far looks like a legitimate power breakout, rather than a small sample fluke.
We all know that names like Chris Sale, Danny Salazar, and Chris Archer are going to rank among the top tier in SwStk%. So let’s instead discuss the surprising names inside the top 20 in the American League of SwStk% that have all enjoyed surges from last season.
As usual, injuries have thrust players we typically ignore in most fantasy leagues into more active roles, which is usually the theme of these player recommendations.
Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to discuss the hitters whose actual HR/FB rate marks sat significantly below their expected marks. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters whose actual HR/FB rates are significantly higher than their xHR/FB rates. As a reminder, these are the marks unadjusted for home park.
Last week, I discussed the early Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event) leaders and laggards from the Statcast leaderboard. Let’s continue our look at the metric, this time using my new Statcast fueled xHR/FB rate equation to identify the hitters whose xHR/FB rates are significantly higher than their actual HR/FB rates. The gap suggests these hitters could enjoy an imminent surge in home run power.
Last week, I identified and discussed eight American League starting pitchers that have seen their fly ball rate increase most versus last year. Let’s flip the coin this time and check in on those starters that have seen their fly ball rate decline.
Hope you need outfielders, because I got two for ya.
