Last week, I identified and discussed eight American League starting pitchers that have seen their fly ball rate increase most versus last year. Let’s flip the coin this time and check in on those starters that have seen their fly ball rate decline.
Hope you need outfielders, because I got two for ya.
Yesterday, I shared with you the top 15 hitters in the Statcast metric Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE). Today, I’ll tackle the bottom of that list, the laggards. These are the batters who have displayed no punch behind their batted balls. Since this list is far more boring and less interesting than the leaders, I will only pluck the fantasy relevant names, and those that are a bit of a surprise. There’s no need to list guys like Billy Hamilton as we know they will sit at the bottom.
Late last season, the wonderful people at MLBAM graced us with a gift from the heavens — a new stat called Barrels. While there’s specific criterion that must be met to be considered a “barrel”, essentially, it’s a ball that a batter hits the crap out of. The stat is available on the Statcast leaderboard, which also includes the total number of batted ball events recorded for the batter. That allows for the calculation of an easy ratio, dubbed Barrles per Batted Ball Event, or Brls/BBE. I used this metric as the primary component of my Statcast-fueled xHR/FB rate. So now that the fine folks over at MLBAM have updated the numbers for the season, it’s time to dive in. Let’s begin by simply checking in on the leaders.
With all the talk about hitters increasing their launch angles, and therefore they fly ball rates, that would mean pitcher fly ball percentages are rising as well. Remember though that unlike for hitters, it’s less black and white as to whether an increased fly ball rate is a good or bad thing. It’s heavily dependent on context, such as the pitcher’s outfield defense and home park. So let’s take a look at which AL starting pitchers have seen their FB% jump most versus last year and determine whether it’s a positive change or not.
This is an interesting pair of recommendations, as an established vet shares the same low ownership as a younger, relatively unknown quantity.
Yesterday, I discussed 10 hitters whose FB% has increased the most compared to last year. So now let’s check in on the other end of the list — the hitters whose FB% has declined the most versus last season. These hitters may be in danger of disappointing in the home run department.
With the availability of Statcast data from the past couple of years, all we hear about now is exit velocities and launch angles. Armed with new data, players are adjusting and learning to become the best versions of themselves. We keep hearing about hitters that are increasing their launch angles, which is just a fancy way of saying they are hitting more fly balls. More fly balls usually results is more home runs. And home runs are good. The league fly ball rate currently sits at its highest mark since 2011, but since the HR/FB rate is at a historical high tied with last year, home runs are flying out like never before.
Last week, I discussed the American League starting pitchers that have improved their Z-Contact% the most. Let’s now check in on the pitchers whose Z-Contact% has risen the most.
It’s time once again to dive into the free agent pool to uncover some hidden gems.
