Home runs. That’s it. Yesterday, I discussed 11 hitters you might investigate if you have a hankering for stolen bases. Today, I’ll flip over to home runs. But this time, I’m going to do things a bit differently. That’s because all the home run hitters are generally going to be owned. So instead, let’s review names that really only contribute in the one category. The idea here is that if you solely need home runs and don’t want to also have to pay for other categories you might be secure in, you might want to target names whose value is almost entirely derived from that one category.

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With just over two months to go, it’s more crucial than ever to play the categorical standings. Sure, Anthony Santander just keeps homering, but he hasn’t hit for batting average and isn’t expected to, and doesn’t steal bases. So if you’re atop the home run standings, he ain’t doing you much good at the moment, outside of keeping you at the top. Instead, you might see four stolen base points in your sights, so perhaps shifting toward speed is now your optimal strategy. These are 12 lesser-owned names that could help gain you those stolen base category points.

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Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which group of hitters you expect to post a better wOBA over the rest of the season. One group was composed of the 10 biggest xwOBA overperformers, while the other comprised the underperformers. Let’s now shift over to starting pitchers by comparing ERA to SIERA, pitting the SIERA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period. This is the poll I began with back in 2013.

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Since 2013, I have polled you on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. In recent years, I added a hitter poll, pitting the xwOBA overperformers versus the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period, and asking you which group you expect to perform better over the remainder of the season. We know that xwOBA isn’t perfect. Neither are SIERA, xERA, and the rest of the ERA estimators. In fact, no estimated/expected/forecasted equation is going to be perfect, because there will always be players that do something we have a difficult time quantifying. Furthermore, there will always be players each year that fall into either end of the extremes for no other reason than complete randomness (luck). So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing these two groups.

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Yesterday, I discussed the Triple-A hitter HR/FB rate leaders, and uncovered a few names that might be worthwhile pickups if they get recalled. In that post, I mentioned that I pivoted away from reviewing the wOBA leaders because many of those marks are driven by unsustainably high BABIPs. I have decided to run that list anyway since overall performance ultimately is what leads to a callup, and the first step to accruing fantasy value is getting to the Majors to begin with! So let’s review the Triple-A wOBA leaders who have recorded at least 200 PAs at the level and are not currently in the Majors.

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With the trade deadline only a couple of weeks away, we’re likely to see a slew of minor leaguers get their opportunity to ascend to the Major Leagues. Since the timing of these promotions are unpredictable and heavily depend on a roster slot opening up, it’s never too early to gather a list of names to monitor so you’re the team that picks them up before having to spend lots of FAAB while competing with your leaguemates.

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Not every top prospect immediately plays at an all-star level during their rookie campaign. Not every former top prospect improves each and every year in lockstep until their big breakout. Sometimes prospects take at least a season or two before it all clicks. Sometimes it clicks, but then pitchers or hitters adjust, and they regress before rebounding. Sometimes prospects simply need some additional time in the minor leagues to iron out their kinks before returning with a bang. Every player is different, so it would be silly to write off former top prospects just because they didn’t meet expectations immediately.

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It’s an exciting upcoming week for owners of Rockies hitters. If you don’t count yourself among that group, then this might be the week to join in on the fun. That’s because the team will be embarking on a full seven game homestand! For weekly transaction leagues, that means a full slate of games, all of which come at hitter friendly Coors Field. In these instances, I like to see which Rockies hitters languish in my leagues’ free agent pool so I could potentially take advantage of the strong schedule. So with that in mind, let’s actually review every single Rockies hitter, as any number of them could be available in your league depending on format and size.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters whose FB% marks had changed the most compared to last year. We care about FB% because it directly impacts home runs. All else being equal, the greater the FB%, the higher the home run total. Similarly, pulled fly balls travel over the fence with significantly greater frequency than those hit straightaway or to the opposite field. So it stands to reason that an increased fly ball pull rate would raise a hitter’s HR/FB rate, while the opposite would be true.

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A hitter’s fly ball rate is important to track because the vast majority of home runs are hit via that batted ball type. In fact, according to Statcast’s batted ball type buckets, there have been 10 times more home runs hit on fly balls than on line drives since 2022. So let’s find out which hitters have seen their FB% marks change the most compared to last year, which could explain a jump or dip in home run totals, compared to expectations at this point in the season.

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