Poll 2024: Which Group of Hitters Performs Better? A Review

During the all-star break, I polled you fine readers about hitters and your expectations in the second half. The poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into. Let’s now review what happened.

As a reminder, below are the aggregate averages of the two groups through the pre-all-star break period. Remember that you were voting solely on 2nd half wOBA. Group A was composed of the xwOBA overperformers and B, the underperformers.

1st Half Group Averages Comparison
Group BA     xBA     SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA Diff
A 0.275 0.243 0.460 0.382 0.343 0.301 0.042
B 0.234 0.265 0.393 0.467 0.306 0.347 -0.040
League Average 0.243 0.247 0.397 0.408 0.310 0.317 -0.007

The poll results were as follows:

Nearly 69% of you figured Group B, the xwOBA underperformers, would post a higher 2nd half wOBA. That sounds like quite the majority, but it was actually lower than 2023’s nearly 78% vote! Clearly some of you weren’t as enamored with the names in Group B. What’s also fun is a nearly identical percentage of voters went with the Neither option as they did in 2023.

Interestingly, the top vote-getter in both wOBA range polls was .320-.339. Even though Group A’s xwOBA was significantly below their wOBA and vice versa for Group B, there must have been some feeling that the gap in xwOBA and wOBA wasn’t entirely luck and that the two groups would converge to post relatively similar marks the rest of the way…though with Group B ending up on top given the result of the first poll.

The second highest vote-getter makes a bit more sense. Since Group A’s xwOBA was just .301 in the first half, about 34% of voters went with the .300-.319 2nd half wOBA range, suggesting luck would catch up with them and their actual results would start to mirror their expected. Similarly, the .340-.359 wOBA range was the second leading vote-getter for Group B, which follows their .347 1st half xwOBA. But here, the third most frequently voted range was .300-.319, and it garnered a much higher percent of the votes than the third range in Group A, suggesting some voters weren’t entirely sure whether it was just bad luck afflicting Group B or a lack of skills not being properly accounted for in xwOBA.

Now on to the second half results:

Group A – The xwOBA Overperformers
Player BA     xBA     SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA Diff
Josh Smith 0.215 0.247 0.300 0.470 0.249 0.341 -0.092
Steven Kwan 0.206 0.249 0.302 0.356 0.284 0.319 -0.035
Ezequiel Tovar 0.261 0.243 0.479 0.444 0.321 0.309 0.012
Isaac Paredes 0.202 0.230 0.291 0.320 0.282 0.306 -0.024
Daulton Varsho 0.233 0.204 0.411 0.349 0.314 0.279 0.035
Jeimer Candelario 0.173 0.213 0.327 0.357 0.236 0.266 -0.030
José Ramírez 0.291 0.274 0.566 0.482 0.380 0.348 0.032
Jose Altuve 0.277 0.221 0.405 0.350 0.329 0.289 0.040
Masyn Winn 0.247 0.259 0.427 0.393 0.310 0.305 0.005
Ceddanne Rafaela 0.250 0.271 0.349 0.370 0.276 0.304 -0.028
Group Average 0.242 0.245 0.396 0.395 0.305 0.311 -0.006
League Average 0.244 0.243 0.403 0.401 0.311 0.312 -0.001

Group B – The xwOBA Underperformers
Player BA     xBA     SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA Diff
Christopher Morel 0.186 0.188 0.273 0.300 0.240 0.253 -0.013
Dansby Swanson 0.281 0.247 0.443 0.422 0.344 0.324 0.020
Taylor Ward 0.272 0.262 0.461 0.452 0.345 0.345 0.000
Bo Bichette 0.375 0.216 0.375 0.254 0.331 0.206 0.125
Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.267 0.288 0.578 0.557 0.366 0.368 -0.002
George Springer 0.213 0.214 0.366 0.372 0.293 0.295 -0.002
Paul Goldschmidt 0.271 0.267 0.480 0.490 0.340 0.343 -0.003
Julio Rodríguez 0.285 0.278 0.482 0.499 0.350 0.355 -0.005
Shea Langeliers 0.241 0.245 0.472 0.443 0.341 0.333 0.008
Francisco Lindor 0.306 0.298 0.574 0.572 0.402 0.396 0.006
Group Average 0.261 0.254 0.456 0.453 0.337 0.334 0.002
League Average 0.244 0.243 0.403 0.401 0.311 0.312 -0.001

Group Averages Comparison
Group BA     xBA     SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA Diff
A 0.242 0.245 0.396 0.395 0.305 0.311 -0.006
B 0.261 0.254 0.456 0.453 0.337 0.334 0.002
League Average 0.244 0.243 0.403 0.401 0.311 0.312 -0.001

Let’s start with the answers to the poll questions. Group A’s wOBA plunged to just above their 1st half xwOBA. While xwOBA is not meant to be predictive, it sure did a good job predicting future performance for this group! As a result, the group posted a meaningfully lower second half wOBA than Group B, who enjoyed a nice rebound, though fell a bit short of their first half xwOBA.

Also note how close the two groups finished to their aggregate xwOBA this time. And this time, the luck was reversed! Group A actually underperformed their xwOBA, though only marginally, while Group B overperformed their xwOBA, albeit only slightly. So if there had been any semblance of thought that xwOBA was failing to capture something these two groups were or were not doing in the first half, the second half numbers squash those feelings.

Group A’s wOBA finished in the second most voted on range, while Group B’s finished in the highest vote-getting range. So this year, the voters went two for three, after a three for three sweep in last year’s hitter poll.

Now let’s talk specific hitters, beginning with the overperformers. One of the most surprising first half hitters was Josh Smith, who posted a .379 wOBA, leading the xwOBA overperformers. He then seemingly forgot how to hit overnight, as his wOBA plummeted to just .249 over the second half. Or did he forget how to hit? His second half xwOBA was actually higher than his first half mark, but the hits just weren’t falling like they did over the first half. That’s just how lady luck works.

Since I didn’t own Steven Kwan, I had no idea how far he fell in the second half. Since he owns limited power and ran less this year, he needs to hit at least like .280 to deliver fantasy value, which is always risky to bank on given the variance in BABIP.

Ezequiel Tovar actually improved his skills in the second half enough so that even though his wOBA did decline, it only did so marginally and his xwOBA rose to reduce the gap between the two significantly. I’m also never sure how much Coors Field messes with those xwOBA rates.

In the first half, Isaac Paredes continued overperforming like he did all of last year. It all came crashing down in the second half, as his xwOBA remained nearly identical, but the hits weren’t falling in and the power disappeared. I love the plate discipline skills here and his fly ball tendency, but his raw power simply needs to improve, as relying on a ton of pulled flies isn’t a sustainable strategy.

José Ramírez said screw regression and enjoyed a monster second half, overperforming his xwOBA by nearly the same degree as in the first half. He hasn’t been a consistent xwOBA overperformer though, so I would be a bit cautious about his price next year coming off the best fantasy season of his career.

Now let’s move on to the underperformers. The first half’s leading underperformer was Christopher Morel, who was brutal in the second half. It wasn’t only the results, but his xwOBA plunged to just .253 as well. The Rays got just a .243 wOBA from him and a .098 ISO. I don’t think that’s what they were expecting.

Dansby Swanson was surprisingly awful during the first half, but he picked it up and returned to normal in the second half. Thanks to a career high 19 steals, he still ended up delivering similar fantasy value as 2023.

What the heck do we make of Bo Bichette next year?! He got off to a terrible start and then ended up recording just 336 PAs due to injury. Though he underperformed his xwOBA, even that mark was well below expectations at just .302. He definitely had some bad BABIP luck, but it’s the power that went M.I.A. His Barrel% was more than cut in half, despite HardHit% and maxEV marks more or less in line with history, driving a HR/FB rate decline to just 5.3%. Since he doesn’t steal bases anymore, he needs that 20+ home run power to return to one of the better fantasy shortstops. He’ll only be 27 next year, so it would be silly to give up on him. I have a feeling I’ll own him in several leagues.

After a 32 homer and 37 steal season during his sophomore campaign, Julio Rodríguez was a top 10 pick in fantasy leagues this year. So it was a surprise when he got off to such a slow start. He ultimately salvaged his season by posting a .350 second half wOBA, though his season numbers still missed expectations. The strong second half will likely ensure there’s barely a discount next year, if any.

With a .341 first half wOBA, there was no real rebound we expected from Francisco Lindor, as that mark was right in line with his career. But he underperformed his xwOBA, which suggested that if he maintained those skills, a big second half could be in the cards. Sure enough, that big second half did indeed manifest, as he posted a .402 wOBA, and even upped his xwOBA to nearly meet that performance. He ended up posting his highest HardHit% and Barrel% of his career.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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