Electing the Hitter All-Profit Team

In honor of Election Day tomorrow, let’s elect the starters at each standard hitting slot that would compose an all-profit team. These are the 14 hitters that earned the most profit for their fantasy owners at each position. How many of these hitters did you own?

This is quite the interesting list, as you have hitters all over the map in terms of cost. Typically, we wouldn’t expect much profit potential from hitters purchased for more than $30, and yet two of them made this list, with the most profitable hitter of them all costing an average of $39. Amazingly we find no hitters in the $20-$29 range, while four hitters sit in the first range of double digits. Of the remaining eight hitters, seven of them cost in the single digits, while one of them failed to find a single roster straight out of the auction.

It’s not like fantasy owners were down on William Contreras, as he was still the third most expensive catcher in NFBC league auctions. However, he suddenly became a true five category contributor, thanks to increases across the counting stat board. Despite ranking just 427th out of 566 hitters in Sprint Speed and 354th out of 533 hitters in 90 foot running speed, he managed to swipe a career high nine bases in just 11 tries. His HR/FB rate also marginally rebounded after a significant decline in 2023, while both his runs scored and RBI totals finished over 90. He could definitely afford to hit a higher rate of fly balls, especially given his elite HardHit% and maxEV, so more home run power could be in his future, but it could cost him BABIP and perhaps batting average.

There was no reason to doubt Cal Raleigh’s power, but a weak batting average is likely what resulted in being tied for just the 12th most expensive catcher. Amazingly, his batting average actually fell this season, but more PAs bumped up his home run total again and he reached the 100 RBI plateau, for a big 25 RBI gain over 2023. He even chipped in six steals, as everyone seems to be getting in on the stolen base action after last year’s rule change. Unlike Contreras, Raleigh takes full advantage of his power as he hit fly balls at more than a 50% clip.

Like many, T-Mobile Park has really crushed Raleigh’s production. Over his career, he has posted just a .291 wOBA at home, versus a .343 mark on the road. Similarly, his HR/FB rate and ISO are significantly higher away from T-Mobile as well. It’s something to consider when setting your lineups if you have a reasonable alternative to replace him when he’s at home.

As realized in my series of first base ranking review posts, this was a particularly poor year for the position. Josh Naylor was the biggest profit maker at the position, but he earned just $8 in profit, which was a full $6 less than the second least profitable hitter at any position. Naylor’s full season stats look good, but it really was just a first half thing. Over the first three months of the season, he swatted 20 home runs, and then 13 over the next three. All of his Statcast metrics look about the same as 2023, so it’s not clear how he was able to set a career high HR/FB rate and ISO without adding any power. The increased PAs really helped his totals here, but even in a repeat, I’d look for his home run total dropping back into the mid-20 range next year.

My gosh, how many of you dropped Eugenio Suárez by the end of June, when he had hit just six home runs, while batting a sad .196?! I can’t remember exactly when, but he was dropped in my shallow 12-team league at some point during those first three months. I was desperate for a third baseman after somehow ending up with Yoan Moncada out of the auction, so I was picking up a bunch of guys and hoping someone sticks. Suárez was one of those names, but I, too, dropped him before he went mad.

He suddenly morphed into a superhuman in July, hitting 10 home runs in that month alone, and batting .333. He was essentially back to normal in August, with five homers and a .260 average, but then finished out strong in September, with another nine home runs and a .347 average. I imagine the percentage of owners who drafted him that stuck with him long enough to enjoy his superb final three months is quite low! His full season numbers look fairly normal and now make his down 2023 look like the fluke. Still, at 33 years old, with no speed, and a batting average that’s going to be neutral at best, I have little interest in rostering him next year at a possibly second half inflated price.

Remember just above how I said I went through a carousel of third base options to find someone I could stick with? Welp, Matt Chapman was one of those names, so while it would have been nice to have held onto Suárez, I didn’t regret it too much thanks to Chapman’s production. While his home run power fully rebounded off his 2023 low, it was mostly the surprising speed that made him such a profitable player. He came into the season having stolen just 11 bases over his entire career, so naturally he decides to steal a whopping 15 bases this season. Oh, and he was caught just twice, which is the same number of times he was caught in each of the previous three seasons…in far less attempts of course.

It’s good to see the power back, but this was fairly obvious given his elite Statcast metrics in 2023. I have no idea how those metrics resulted in just a 9.9% HR/FB rate, so he was pretty much a lock to rebound there. It’s anyone’s guess if he’ll steal double digit bases again, and since he’s not going to help your batting average, he’ll be a risky choice if his price is inflated.

Wow, Ketel Marte finally ended his up, then down, then up, then down pattern of power output. Seriously, his power has been so maddingly inconsistent, it was impossible to predict what you were going to get from him in a particular season. This year, he posted career bests in HR/FB rate and ISO, thanks to his first HardHit% over 50% and double digit Barrel%. This was probably overdue though if you look at his elite maxEV history. I would guess that much of his hardest hit balls have been on the ground historically, but man, very few hitters ever post maxEV marks consistently over 115 MPHs, and those that do almost always post HR/FB rates over 20%. Marte had never done it until this year. While I certainly wouldn’t bet on this again, I wouldn’t be surprised if he repeated given those elite Statcast metrics.

This season wasn’t all that different for Willy Adames, as both his HR/FB rate and ISO were in line with his history and produced before, while his strikeout rate improved to a career best, but just barely. Instead, two factors contributed to the big fantasy season. First was a career high FB% that finished just below 50%, which fueled his second 30-homer season despite a HR/FB rate below his career average. Next was the need for speed, as Adames stole 21 bases after never stealing more than eight in a season prior. He was also caught just four times, so he also vastly improved as a basestealer like Chapman discussed earlier. Everything here looks repeatable, but only the Magic 8 Ball could tell you if he’ll steal double digit bases again.

After a 2023 debut that saw Zach Neto contribute some power and speed, he improved dramatically and enjoyed perhaps the quietest 20/30 season this year. While his Statcast metrics barely budged, his HR/FB rate jumped, improving his home run pace from 2023. But once again, it was the stolen bases that really made him a fantasy breakout. In 2023, he was essentially on a 10 steal pace over a full season, but he ended up swiping 30 bases this year. Unlike Chapman and Adames, he didn’t become a magnificent basestealer, settling in at around what we deem as the minimum acceptable success rate of 75%. It’s hard to imagine him matching this kind of fantasy production again next season.

Wowzers Jurickson Profar! You may have forgotten since it was over a decade ago, but Jurickson Profar was once one of the top prospects in baseball. Though he’s enjoyed some perfectly decent seasons, he clearly never lived up to the one-time hype. Then suddenly at age 31, he enjoys the best season of his career, with career bests all over the place. He was the only name on this list who failed to make a single roster out of NFBC auction leagues.

Profar showed his usual excellent walk and strikeout rates, but he upped his BABIP to a career high and the first time it jumped over .300. His power exploded, finally, as his HardHit% rose over 40% for the first time, while his Barrel% was a full percentage point higher than his previous career high. He also matched his career high with 10 steals.

It suddenly all came together for him, but without a standout skill, it’s going to be fairly easy for him to fall back to becoming free agent fodder in shallower leagues again. I wouldn’t bother here at what figures to be a price I’m unwilling to pay.

The strategy should always be to roster Aaron Judge the season after he misses time to injury. This is even more important in shallow leagues where your replacement is far better than what it would be in an AL-Only league, for example. There was nothing this year that Judge hadn’t done before, but a career high PA really helped, and oh, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. Doing that while not losing any power is pretty amazing.

Sure, Jackson Merrill was a top 10 overall prospect heading into the season, but he didn’t seem like an imminent fantasy force as he hadn’t shown a ton of power or stolen a ton of bases in the minors. Even worse, he hadn’t taken a single at-bat at the Triple-A level! So I wasn’t really interested here and clearly NFBC players weren’t either, rostering him for just $3 on average at auction. Boy were we wrong!

He ended up delivering across the board, with really solid metrics everywhere you look. In fact, his .376 xwOBA is meaningfully higher than his .352 actual mark, so if anything, he may have actually deserved even better results. The low walk rate is a concern and definitely cut into his runs scored total, but I love that he was a fly ball hitter, posting a sub-20% strikeout rate, and therefore only needed a 13% HR/FB rate to hit over 20 home runs. The scouting grades make me wonder how much more power upside he actually has, but the skills make him a pretty safe bet for a repeat.

After overperforming his xwOBA in about half a season in 2023, and potentially being part of a crowded outfield rotation, I was unsure about Jarren Duran heading into the season. Oops. Even with expected BABIP regression, he barely lost any batting average thanks to an improved strikeout rate. Plus, his power not only held, but actually increased, as his Barrel% jumped to the high single digits and ISO hopped over .200. His stolen base pace slowed from 2023, but he still swiped over 30 bags, giving him a 20/30 season in his first full year. I don’t see any reason to think he couldn’t come close to a repeat, though it’s worth noting that he led baseball in PA, which obviously greatly benefited his counting stats.

Remember above I said Neto may have enjoyed the quietest 20/30 season? I’m changing my answer, because Brenton Doyle definitely had an even quieter one. From a .257 wOBA in 2023 to a .328 one, while swatting 23 home runs and stealing 30 bases, he was one of the season’s biggest fantasy surprises. His strikeout rate improved by nearly 10 percentage points, which did wonders for his output. Everything here looks good and fairly repeatable, but you have to question whether he can maintain the massively improved strikeout rate. This is especially true considering he has posted 30%+ strikeouts rates everywhere he played since 2021. His fantastic defense should keep him in the lineup and Coors definitely provides a cushion, but I still worry this ends up being a fluke of an offensive performance, given his lackluster former prospect status.

It’s pretty incredible that the most profitable player of the season was a hitter that cost $39 on average, but that just goes to show you how incredible Shohei Ohtani was. While he did improve his strikeout rate for the third straight season to another career best, everything else offensively was right in line with his history. The difference this year was a career best 731 PA, which ranked second in baseball, and, of course, the 59 steals, which came after stealing 57 over the previous three seasons combined. More amazing about the 59 steals is that he was caught just four times! There are no words.

I do want to throw some caution to future Ohtani owners next year — since he figures to get back to pitching, that could cut into his PAs and possibly his performance as he won’t be solely focusing on hitting anymore.