We continue our tour of the infield with my second base rankings. I’m hoping to wrap up these rankings pretty quickly with the two up-the-middle positions this week and finish the rest next week.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Traditionally, shortstop has been the lowest non-catcher position in the scarcity hierarchy but second base is really pushing it this year. Mookie Betts stands alone on top of the rankings but he’s bound to lose his eligibility after this season. There are some solid options after him but once you get to 10 or 11 players deep, there’s a group of players with big questions surrounding their production and then a significant drop off. Trevor Story’s injury certainly didn’t help either. Because Ottoneu requires you to start a middle infielder in addition to the two standard positions, the scarcity at second base makes planning your strategy for these three positions pretty tricky.

There are a number of bottom-tier options that do have some potential upside if you’re open to taking on a bit of risk. If you’re stuck with a mid-tier player, one of these youngsters could be a nice partner to give you a bit more ceiling at the position if that sleeper does break out. The other nice thing about the mid- and lower-tier options is that so many of them are eligible at multiple positions. Hitting your games played caps is incredibly important in Ottoneu and these flexible players give you plenty of options when you’re filling out your daily lineups.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Brandon Lowe – I think the big difference here is a belief that Lowe’s struggles last year were all injury related. A back injury hampered him all season long and he ended up missing large portions of the year because of it. His ailment obviously sapped a lot of his power last season — his isolated power dropped over 100 points to a career-low of .162 — but he did show some improvement in other areas of his approach. His strikeout rate was a career-best 22.9% and most of that was due to a significant improvement in two-strike counts. His overall swinging strike rate and contact rates were within the realm of his career norms, but when the at-bat was on the line, he was able to reduce his whiff rate leading to a lower strikeout rate. Assuming his back is fully healed this year and his two-strike approach sticks, he’s poised to be one of the most potent bats at a very shallow position.

Ryan McMahon – It’s always tricky rostering Rockies players since their home/road splits often require a platoon mate to pair with them when they’re playing outside of Coors Field. McMahon isn’t necessarily an exception to that suggestion — his away split is a decidedly not-nice 69 point difference in wOBA — but he made some key improvements under-the-hood that could indicate a higher ceiling for him. He reduced his overall swing rate by more than three points and increased his zone contact rate up to 83%. Those two changes led to some higher contact quality and a career-low swinging strike rate. It didn’t necessarily show up in his results — his strikeout rate was still a bit elevated and his power output actually fell from his previous three-year norms — but the adjustments indicate a better approach at the plate.

Brandon Drury – When a journeyman enjoys a mid-career breakout, it’s always important to ask if it’s sustainable. You can read more about my thoughts on Drury’s career-year last season in my deep dive from December but it essentially boils down to this: he made significant improvements to his batted ball quality while also honing his approach at the plate to make contact a lot more often. And with eligibility at three positions, he’s a flexible piece of depth for any Ottoneu team.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Jazz Chisholm Jr. – It breaks my heart to put Chisholm down here because he’s an extremely fun player to watch. His combination of power and speed make him one of the most dynamic young players in baseball. Unfortunately, only one of those tools will be useful in Ottoneu making him a much more valuable player in 4×4 or 5×5 formats. Then, there’s the added complication of a position move, as the Marlins have decided to try him out in centerfield this year. Maybe he takes to the transition without a hitch, but it also presents some uncertainty that, combined with his back injury last year, makes me hesitate to rank him any higher. I really hope I have to eat my words at the end of the year.

Luis Arraez – I like Arraez and Chad and I have him in the same tier, but I think I’m a little lower on him. Arraez’s old school, contact-heavy approach is pretty unique in this day and age and his move to Miami’s pitcher’s paradise shouldn’t hurt him as much since he wasn’t hitting for power anyway. But with an offensive foundation so heavily reliant on good outcomes on all his batted balls, he’s more susceptible to bad luck than most. His career BABIP is .336 and none of his individual seasons look like extreme outliers, but any dip in that metric will have significant effects on his results.

Isaac Paredes – Paredes finally got a chance at near-full-time at-bats in Tampa Bay last season and produced a pretty good 116 wRC+ in just under 400 plate appearances. His excellent plate discipline provides him with a solid foundation but I’m not sure he’ll be able to replicate his power output without some significant changes to his batted ball profile. He blasted 20 home runs last year and his isolated power was .230, the highest it’s been at any level in his professional career. Despite all those extra-base hits, his barrel and hard hit rates were just 6.4% and 37.6%, respectively. Both marks are below league average wouldn’t normally indicate such a high ISO. He was able to hit so many homers because he optimizes his batted balls for pulled contact in the air. Still, without improving his batted ball quality, there’s some risk that he won’t produce as much power this year.

After going through the catching position last week, I’m turning my attention to ranking the rest of the infield this week, beginning with first basemen. Do you need a big thumper to power your offense? Do you like strategic draft decisions at a deep position with plenty of mid-tier talent? Look no further.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

First base is always a deep position and this year is no different. If you miss out on one of the top guys, I count up to 20 or so secondary options that could provide solid production for your team. That’s not to say you should ignore those guys in the top tier and just wait to grab a mid-tier option. If you have the opportunity to pick one of Freddy Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Paul Goldschmidt, you won’t regret it. They’ll carry a large portion of your offense on their own — if you pay for that kind of production.

There’s a group of young first basemen who have either just established themselves or are on the verge of debuting, led by Vinnie Pasquantino. If you miss out on the Italian Breakfast, Nathaniel Lowe, Triston Casas, Jose Miranda, and hopefully Spencer Torkelson all bring a bit of youth to a position that has traditionally skewed pretty veteran heavy.

There are a bunch of bounce back candidates that can be found for really cheap to pair with a mid-tier option if you want to go that way. Brandon Belt’s projections are off the charts, but the health of his knees will always dictate how much he’s able to produce. Jared Walsh, Trey Mancini, and Dominic Smith also fit this bill. If any of those guys are healthy and producing, they could return some excellent value for just a buck or two, and because the position is so deep, they can be jettisoned pretty easily if they’re not hitting well early in the season.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Vinnie Pasquantino – I’m expecting pretty big things from Pasquantino in his sophomore campaign. In his first taste of the major leagues, he showed phenomenal plate discipline with a walk rate a few decimal points above his strikeout rate; he didn’t chase and made contact at an elite rate. With that kind of foundation, he’s already a step ahead of most young prospects. And when he puts the ball in play, he does it very hard and in the air. All of the skills he showed are exactly what you’d want to see from a young hitter and already make him one of the better hitters in the league at just 25-years-old.

Yandy Díaz – Díaz possesses all the same skills that make Pasquantino an elite presence at the plate — low chase, high contact, and high hard hit rates. The only thing that’s lacking is an ability to elevate the ball regularly. That didn’t hold him back from posting a career-high 146 wRC+ last year. The projection systems believe in this new ceiling he showed last year and even project a bit of power growth for him this year. I’m not sure if that’ll happen without a significant change in his batted ball profile, but he’s already proved he can be productive without a higher fly ball rate. Buy the elite skills, and if he does make the launch angle adjustment, reap even greater rewards.

Joey Meneses – Anyone who bought into Frank Schwindel’s “breakout” in 2021 can tell you to stay away from Meneses. Late career breakouts like these are just so hard to predict and rarely last long. There are a few reasons why I believe Meneses’s leap will stick this year. His hard hit rate was significantly higher than Schwindel’s, giving him a higher power ceiling. His plate approach isn’t great; the combination of low strikeout and low walk rates make him pretty dependent on batted ball outcomes. Even if his BABIP regresses back toward league average, his ability to impact the ball gives him a solid foundation to be an above average hitter.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Christian Walker – Walker posted a career-year in 2022, setting career-highs in all sorts of offensive categories. I’m not necessarily down on him because of that — though he’s likely to regress back towards his career norms. The biggest adjustment he made was to swing a lot less aggressively, reducing his overall swing rate to just under 45%. His batted ball peripherals all looked fairly similar to his breakout season in 2019. Without any significant changes to his underlying ability to hit for power, the likelihood that he repeats his career-year in 2023 comes down to whether or not his new plate approach is sticky.

Andrew Vaughn – Last season, Vaughn increased his hard hit rate four points, up from 46.4% to 48.4%, putting him in the top ten percent of the league. Even though he was able to impact the ball with authority more often, his barrel rate fell by three points and his isolated power fell by two points. Therein lies the problem. Despite hitting the ball extremely hard, it’s too often put on the ground instead of in the air. To make matters worse, his plate discipline slipped a bit as well, with his walk rate falling to 5.6%. Despite these issues, his wRC+ was still decent at 113. If you’re drafting him and expecting a breakout, there are a lot of things that will need to change first to get there.

Matt Mervis – Mervis had a ton of helium after posting a fantastic 156 wRC+ across three different minor league levels last year. He slashed .309/.379/.605 and blasted 36 home runs as he moved from High-A all the way up to Triple-A in the span of a single season. It’s certainly possible he’ll make his major league debut this year but I’m pumping the brakes on picking him as a breakout candidate. Last year was just his second professional season after going undrafted in the abbreviated, five-round 2020 draft. In 2021, he posted just an 85 wRC+ while spending most of his time in Single-A. The Cubs were obviously not ready to hand the reins over to him this year either; they signed both Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini to play first. Neither of those two veterans will block Mervis if he continues smashing the ball in the minor leagues, but he has to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke first.

I’m taking a break from my rebuilding series this week to start my Ottoneu rankings for 2023. It’s a little late — the cut deadline has already come and gone — but I’ll try and get them done quickly so they’re available before draft season starts in earnest. Between these and Chad’s rankings (found below), hopefully you’ll have everything you need to prepare for your drafts this year.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Playing a catcher is a necessary evil in fantasy baseball, and in Ottoneu, you have the opportunity to play two at a time (though be careful with your position games played cap). The top players at the position will give you legitimate production but things drop off quickly from the top two tiers. If you can’t (or don’t want to) grab one of the top seven or eight players at the position, you’re probably better off picking two of the mid- or low-tier options and hoping to find some kind of production out of that combination. If you really wanted to, you could grab a couple of catchers for $1 at the auction and then just churn through the position in season until you find something that works.

There’s a pretty large group of young backstops who are either just getting established in the big leagues or are on the verge of being called up. The leap from the minors to the majors is always hard for youngsters, but it’s particularly difficult for catchers. I don’t recommend relying on one of these prospects unless you pair them with an established veteran to mitigate some of the risk.

One note about Daulton Varsho: based on playing time alone, he should probably be included in the top tier since he’ll be playing nearly everyday, but I would be shocked if he held onto his catcher eligibility next year. You could draft him as your primary catcher alongside some of the top options at the position, but next year, you’re going to have to choose whether or not to keep him as an outfielder only. Weigh his salary accordingly.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Will Smith – Technically, we both ranked Smith in the top tier so we don’t actually diverge all that much on his position, but I considered ranking Smith in a tier of his own above any other player at the position. His combination of elite plate discipline and good power for the position is unrivaled as a catcher. Both his projected points per game and points per plate appearance stand apart from any other backstop.

Danny Jansen – This ranking comes down to how much you think he’s going to play behind Alejandro Kirk; his projected production is fantastic. Those two were paired up as the starting catcher and designated hitter last year once Jansen returned from his early season injury. The Blue Jays brought in Brandon Belt this offseason and he might take away a portion of the playing time at designated hitter against right-handed pitching, but do you really think his knees (or lack thereof) are going to hold up for a whole season? I’m expecting Jansen to get plenty of playing time as the primary backup to Kirk and at DH, just like last year.

Mitch Garver – This one also comes down to playing time. In his first season in Texas, Garver spent nearly half the season on the Injured List and he was just okay when he was on the field. Still, he put up a 136 wRC+ over his previous three seasons before last year and that includes a 43 wRC+ in 2020. The Rangers don’t really have a great option at designated hitter and Garver could slot in there which is what he did for most of last year.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Francisco Álvarez, Bo Naylor, Shea Langeliers, etc. – This goes back to that note I had above about young catchers. They’re full of risk and I wouldn’t count on them to carry your production at the position. If you want to grab one as a future investment, that’s fine, but if you’re competing for a top spot in your league, I’d be more inclined to find some more consistent production from a different mid-tier option. Álvarez in particular seems like a significant risk. The talent with the bat is evident, but the Mets clearly don’t trust him behind the plate yet. New York signed Omar Narváez and extended Tomás Nido to pair at the position, pushing Álvarez back to the minors as he continues to develop his defensive skills. It’s possible he’ll get an opportunity at designated hitter, which certainly changes some of the calculus, but that’s no guarantee yet.

So, you’ve made the difficult decision to start rebuilding in your dynasty fantasy baseball league. Maybe you’re coming off a competitive window but salary inflation and arbitration have conspired to prevent you from running the same roster back again this year or you had a really unlucky season and need to tear everything down. Whatever the case may be, you’re here now and need to start somewhere. Last week, I walked through that decision-making process and how to start evaluating your roster, now you need to start making things happen.

Read the rest of this entry »

The process. Taking a step back. Tanking. However you put it, nearly every team in Major League Baseball has been faced with the decision to rebuild at some point in the recent past. Sometimes it’s a quick retool lasting a year or two or maybe it’s a full tear-down with a multi-year cycle before sniffing the playoffs again. Dynasty fantasy baseball — and Ottoneu in particular — is no different, where the decision to build for the future is one of the core experiences of the format.

When Ottoneu was established, it was designed to try and emulate the job of an MLB general manager as closely as possible within the confines of a fantasy baseball setting. That meant deep rosters, access to the full minor leagues, and the ability to truly build for the future. I’ve played fantasy baseball for over 20 years and have been playing Ottoneu since 2011 when it was first established. It’s my favorite format I’ve played in all those years, and luckily, I’ve managed to avoid a major rebuild in any of my leagues until now.

My very first Ottoneu team was in League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams and I’ve held onto this team ever since. I’ve finished as high as second in this league and never lower than sixth until 2021. The prospect of rebuilding was never really all that appealing to me. I preferred to draft and wheel and deal my way into contention every year even if that “always compete” strategy never resulted in any championships. I thought it was more fun to try and push for that top-three finish than to “waste” a year (or years) rebuilding. Unfortunately, without a strong foundation to stay competitive every year, the tank has finally caught up with me.

I thought it would be helpful and instructive to walk through this rebuild to impart any lessons I learn to you, dear reader. My hope is that a guide to rebuilding in Ottoneu should be different enough thanks to the quirks and nuances of the unique format while still having some value for those of you who don’t play Ottoneu. Perhaps it’ll make your decision to start rebuilding a little easier or help you along the way if you’re already knee-deep in your own step-back cycle.

Making the Decision

I finished the 2021 season in seventh place and foolishly tried to run it back again last year. There were tons of holes on my roster but I thought I had enough pieces to be competitive with a good draft. It didn’t work. I quickly fell into last place once the season started as injuries and poor talent evaluation both dragged my team to the bottom. By May, the writing was on the wall — this team stunk and I’d need to do a lot of work to turn it around.

And that’s one of the first lessons I should have learned: you need to be brutally honest with your position. From 2017–‘19, I finished in sixth place for three straight seasons. That should have been a huge warning sign that my strategy of trying to compete every season wasn’t working. Those teams had some nice pieces like MVP-era Christian Yelich, Coors-era DJ LeMahieu, Whit Merrifield, and J.T. Realmuto. What they didn’t have was any sort of keepable pitching what-so-ever. That should have been evident in the final points-per-game (P/G) and -per-innings-pitched (P/IP) each season but I (arrogantly) thought I could overcome that hindrance.

To be fair, I did a pretty good job of building a competitive offense (thanks to the juiced baseball!) but I just couldn’t figure out an answer for my pitching staff. It regularly sat in the bottom half of the league by points-per-innings-pitched and was the downfall of those offensive powerhouses in 2018 and ‘19. A more honest evaluation and reflection after each of those years could have resulted in a decision to start rebuilding a lot sooner.

Evaluate Your Roster and Develop a Plan

These next two steps really go hand-in-hand. Once you’ve decided to start rebuilding, laying out a rough roadmap towards contention is your next step. A rebuild without an exit strategy hews too close to how the Marlins approach each season in the big leagues. It’s too easy to push the goalposts back each year if you’re not making progress so having a concrete plan in place helps you break out of that cycle.

You can’t really build that timeline until you’ve evaluated your roster and figured out who is coming along for the ride and who is dead weight. Rebuilding teams aren’t just deciding to keep players for next year, they have to take into account their timeline back to contention. Because of salary inflation and arbitration, the players you keep today will be that much more expensive down the road. If you’re looking at a quick one- or two-year retool, keeping a player with $1–$5 of surplus value makes a little more sense than if you’re looking to rebuild for multiple years. Those borderline keepers should turn into easy cuts if their salary in a few years prices them out of your roster.

Players with tons of surplus value — $10 or more — make sense as long-term keepers because they’re the players that will be contributing on your next competitive roster down the road. These are your centerpieces to your team — usually young major leaguers who have already established themselves but who have a cheap salary right now.

For my team in League 32, those centerpieces are probably these four guys:

Even though Wander Franco doesn’t necessarily have a projected surplus value in 2023, the potential in his bat is off the charts. Even if he ends up not hitting for as much power as expected, if he’s healthy and continues his upward trajectory, he should be worth the large hit to my salary cap. The other three players all have plenty of surplus value and would likely fit on nearly every roster around the league at their price, even if their projections aren’t that gaudy.

Making those keep or cut decisions with a two- or three-year outlook can be pretty tricky. It’s hard enough projecting for next season, let alone a few years into the future. Luckily, ZiPS projects three years into the future so you can at least get an idea of how your roster might look in 2024 or 2025. Those long-term projections aren’t perfect, but they’re a good baseline to start from when determining which players to keep and which to cut.

On the other hand, if you’re just starting your rebuild, you’ll need valuable pieces to trade off during the season to continue replenishing your roster. This isn’t as important as determining who the long-term core of your team is, but they’ll be a critical part of moving your rebuild forward. Think of them as the MLB veteran signed to a one- or two-year deal to be used as trade bait during the summer. For my roster, that’s someone like my $25 Max Muncy or $21 Teoscar Hernández. Those two are projected to be solid contributors, and if they have a strong season in 2023, they’d both make fantastic trade pieces during the summer for a team looking to upgrade for the stretch run. They’re cheap enough to be keepers in 2023 and good enough to be a significant upgrade for a team during the summer.

Determining which players are long-term keepers and which players are sellable keepers might seem like they’re at odds. It depends on where you’re at in your rebuilding process. Since my team is still towards the beginning, I’ve still got sellable pieces on my roster that I can keep this year with the intention to move them for more valuable pieces later on.

Now we need to talk about prospects. For a rebuilding team, you’d expect that prospects are the bread and butter of the process. While that might be true to some extent, I’m here to argue that prospects are a trap. Yesterday, Lucas Kelly did a great job breaking down much of my argument in his piece on keeping minor leaguers. With prospects, you’re hoping that their development path and introduction to the majors is as smooth as Juan Soto’s while trying to keep them on your roster with a low enough salary if/when they hit snags along the way.

For example, Marco Luciano has an average salary of $5 in Ottoneu right now (and I happen to currently roster him in League 32). His ETA on his prospect profile says 2024, but he hasn’t played above High-A yet. Even if he does hit that ETA, it’s unlikely he’ll make an immediate impact until a year or two later. At that point his salary will be at least $7 and maybe higher if he gets any major league playing time. Will he be worth that salary then? Maybe, but it’s a risk you have to weigh and Luciano’s timeline might not line up with your own cycle. Lucas made the same argument with Jack Leiter in his article yesterday. With prospects that are multiple years away, are they even going to be contributing in the major leagues when you’re aiming to break out of your rebuilding cycle? I’m choosing to keep Luciano at $3 because the salary is low enough I can take the risk to see if he pans out and he might even make an enticing trade piece this summer if his minor league season is more successful than last year.

With that said, there are some prospects who do make sense to try and build around. With the new CBA incentivizing teams to promote their top prospects earlier in the season, it’s easier than ever to figure out which prospects are going to be given a full-season opportunity in the big leagues. These MLB-ready prospects are usually deep into their development process and can usually be trusted to return some modest value now while hopefully bringing back even more value later on. My team in League 32 has four guys like that: George Kirby ($10), Ezequiel Tovar ($3), Grayson Rodriguez ($3), and Shane Baz ($3). I’m betting that these guys will develop enough to become centerpieces on my roster in a few years and they’re close enough to the majors that I can make a call on whether or not they’ve developed sufficiently fairly quickly in my rebuilding process.

That’s it for now. My next installment in this series will examine my opening moves of this rebuild from last summer and dive into a potential draft strategy.