For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton appeared just once this past week, and it was a rocky cameo to say the least. Big Jon allowed 3 runs and 3 walks against the Padres on July 5th. To put that in perspective, Broxton coughed up a total of 4 runs in April and May combined. His numbers for the year are still terrifying, as he leads all relievers in FIP (1.39) while placing ever so slightly behind teammate Ramon Troncoso in WPA (2.64 to 2.63). Broxton’s 14.75 K/9 ranks nearly three whole K’s per nine above second-place Octavio Dotel.

Heath Bell, Padres

The first-time All-Star selection worked twice this week, with a 1.2-inning save vs. the Dodgers on the fourth (he allowed 1 run, 1 H and 1 BB), and then tossing a scoreless inning in a non-save chance the following day. One would assume that Bell (5th in WPA, without giving up a homer in 36.1 frames) is on the trading block. He’s pretty darned good, but has more utility to the also-run club as a trade chip.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod appeared once this week, allowing a homer to Manny Ramirez against the Dodgers on the 8th. The Queens closer is arguably in the midst of his worst season in the majors, despite posting his second-lowest ERA (1.77). Rodriguez’s FIP sits at a mediocre 3.69, the product of 9.07 K/9 and 5.09 BB/9. The lack of control is becoming a serious concern; this is the 4th straight year that K-Rod’s BB rate has increased, and he isn’t missing as many bats as he used to either. Opponents have responded by swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone. Rodriguez’s O-Swing% has dropped from 30.2% in 2007 to 23.6% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman got into just one game this week, picking up a bumpy save (2 walks and 1 hit) against St. Louis on July 8th. Trevor walked one batter in his first 18 appearances, but he has issued 6 free passes in his last 7 trips to the mound. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a long ball in 24.1 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected 3 saves in 4.1 scoreless innings this week. Hitters touched up Qualls more than usual in June as he fought through forearm tightness (85.1% contact rate that’s 6 percent above his 2009 average, with 8 R in 9.2 IP), but Arizona’s closer appears to be back on track.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps got into just one game this week, racking up a save vs. the ‘Stros on July 7th. He walked just two batters in 11 June innings and has pitched two-walkless frames in July, a happy development after Capps issued 9 walks in 15.2 frames during April and May. The Texan’s Zone% was 56.8% in June, after posting marks of 51.6% in April and May.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street soaked up 4 innings this week, allowing 1 run while collecting three saves. His WPA (1.46) is already higher than every full season other than his 2005 rookie campaign (3.70). Street’s Zone%, which dipped to a below-average 47.5 in 2008, is back up to 51.6% this year. That helps to explain how his walk rate has been shaved down from 3.47 in ’08 to 2.35 in 2009.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Last year’s WPA leader (5.37) still ranks dead last in 2009 (-2.18) by a considerable margin. He collected two save vs. the Mets on the 4th and 5th, but Bad Lidge reared his ugly head again against the Reds on the 7th (2 H, 1 R, 1BB while taking the loss). Lidge did collect another save vs. Cincy yesterday. Opposing hitters have made contact with 85.7% of Lidge’s pitches within the zone, about 11 percent above his career average.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero collected two saves this week, with scoreless frames against the Cardinals on the 4th and the Phillies on the 7th. Cincy’s closer has a WPA (2.02) that places him among the top 10, but it’s been something of a high-wire act. Cordero’s 1.88 K/BB is his worst mark since 2000; a very low BABIP (.251) and HR/FB rate (3 percent) have veiled a drop in K/9 from 12.22 in 2007 to 7.50 in 2009.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde picked up one save in three appearances this week, punching out 5 batters and surrendering 1 run in the process. Though Papa Grande has endured some long ball woes (17.4 HR/FB%), he also totes rates of 11.44 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9. Valverde’s mid-90’s gas hasn’t hit the mark often enough (-1.06 runs/100 pitches), but his mid-80’s splitter has been stellar (+2.10).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Equipped with rugged facial hair and a brand-spankin’ new cutter, Franklin owns a microscopic ERA (0.83) and 20 saves in 21 chances. Still, color me very skeptical. While Franklin’s K rate (6.61) is higher than usual, his .209 BABIP, mind-bending 99.2% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (6.1%) portend to bumpier days ahead.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson whiffed three while getting the save vs. Houston on July 5th, but the Marlins filleted him for 3 hits and two runs on the 6th (he still got the cheapie save anyway). By WPA, Wilson has been one of the worst 15 relievers in the bigs (-0.84). In sunnier news, his 2.8 K/BB ratio is a career-high.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano has picked up the last four save opportunities for the Braves, as Bobby Cox appears to be leading toward the man who ranks fourth in WPA (2.51) and 3rd in FIP (1.94). Gonzalez (0.80 WPA, 3.31 FIP) gave up 3 runs to the Nationals on the fourth, got two holds in scoreless frames on the 7th and 8th vs. the Cubs, then coughed up 2 more runs vs. the Rockies yesterday in his third straight day of pitching.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg got the save against the Braves on the 6th, then gave up 2 runs vs. Atlanta in a non-save situation on the 8th. Overall, Gregg holds a 0.70 WPA, with rates of 8.92 K/9 and 3.66 BB/9. Chicago’s stopper is using his low 80’s slider more than ever 30.6% of the time), though the breaker hasn’t been as effective this year (-0.41 runs/100 pitches, +0.70 in 2007 and 2008).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer are filling in

It’s hard to say just who will get the call in the 9th for the Fish. Since Lindstrom hit the shelf, Meyer and Nunez have collected two saves apiece. In terms of 2009 performance, the back-from-the-dead Meyer (once a prized prospect for the Braves and A’s) has Nunez beat in FIP (3.58 to 4.38) and WPA (1.22 to 0.46). Meyers’ past as a top starting prospect is still apparent out of the ‘pen, as he has used three different pitches to quell hitters. His 91 MPH fastball (1.13 runs/100 pitches), mid-80’s slider (+3.24) and high-70’s change (+4.19) are all working right now. Nunez also uses the same three offerings often. His 94 MPH heater (+2.24) and mid-80’s slider (+2.34) are dynamite, while an oft-utilized hard changeup (-1.75) is getting hit hard.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal is fantasy baseball’s equivalent of “in case of emergency, break glass.” If you have no other ninth-inning options, then I suppose you might be desperate enough to use Washington’s “stopper.” Then again, you might just want to run out of that burning building instead. MacDougal’s K/BB ratio for the year is 10/19 in 21 innings. Sure, he throws hard (95.2 MPH), but that hasn’t stopped batters from making contact with 87% of his pitches.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

No Mo Runs: Rivera hasn’t seen a runner cross home plate on his watch since June 12th, a stretch of 10.1 innings in which he’s whiffed 11 and walked none. The Panama native has an obscene 43/3 K/BB ratio, with a 2.73 FIP that’s dropping like a lead balloon has his early-season homer woes subside. Rivera’s cutter is heating up:

Runs/100 for Rivera’s cutter:
April: +1.54
May: +0.57
June: +2.45
July: +6.13

Joe Nathan, Twins

There’s little to report on the Nathan front: Joe hasn’t gotten into game action since the Fourth of July, as the Bronx Bombers swept the Twins in a three-game set. Nathan’s FIP (1.88) is second among relievers, with his fastball (+3.05 runs/100), slider (+2.28) and curve (+1.70) firing on all cylinders.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria notched 4 saves this week, twirling 4.1 innings of scoreless relief vs. the White Sox, Tigers and Red Sox. He K’d 7 and walked no one. In between DL stints for a barking shoulder, Soria has posted rates of 11.74 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9, giving him a career-best 4.29 K/BB ratio. Soria’s contact rate is at a career-low 70.5%, and his First-Pitch Strike% is also the best of his big league tenure (64.5%, 58% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

By no means has Papelbon been bad this season; he just hasn’t been the absolutely dominant, Irish-jigging force that we have become accustomed to seeing. Boston’s stopper has a 3.89 FIP, the product of an inflated walk rate (4.26 BB/9). His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has dropped over 4 percent from 2008, and his signature mid-to-high 90’s cheese has been merely good (+0.71 runs/100 pitches; +2.23 career average).

Of course, all of this worrying could be for naught. Fretting too much about a half-season’s worth of pitching from a reliever is a good way to get yourself in trouble by selling low. Relief performance is notoriously volatile; Papelbon could resume his fire-breathing, door-slamming performance in the second half and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks quietly turned in an excellent first half, with 8.79 K/9 and 1.88 BB/9. An inflated HR/FB rate (18.5%) has left his line looking merely good, but Bobby has reduced his percentage of contact within the zone nearly 10 percent from 2008 (93.1% to 83.6%). He’s missing bats, displaying sharp command and still burning worms (54.2 GB%). That’s a recipe for success.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco picked up a clean save against the Rays on the 5th, but he served up a dinger to Juan Rivera in a non-save situation vs. the Angels on the 7th (his second HR allowed since being activated from the DL). The 6-3, 230 pounder might be throwing too many strikes in July. His Zone% is 62.3 this month, and opponents have made contact with 90.6% of those offerings within the zone (his Zone% for the year is 53.7, and his Z-Contact% is 80.8). Even with the rough return, Frank holds a 4.29 K/BB for the year, with a 1.91 Win Probability Added that ranks just outside the top 10.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey got some well-deserved rest this week. Though fantasy owners are probably gritting their teeth at Oakland’s moribund offense (the rookie stopper collected a 1.1 inning save vs. Cleveland on the 5th, and hasn’t pitched since), Bailey is on pace to toss 94 frames in 2009. That’s probably not as worrisome as it sounds, though, as Bailey is a converted starter. Four of the 25 year-old’s nine saves have tasked him with getting at least four outs. Imagine that: using your best reliever when the situation calls for it. Oakland isn’t afraid to call on Bailey to get a tough out in the 8th and then pitch the 9th, a good thing for A’s fans and Bailey owners alike.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Dan Wheeler got a save yesterday afternoon, but don’t worry too much. J.P. needed a day off after working back-to-back games against the Jays. The best reliever no one talks about, Howell’s bass-ackwards curveball and changeup-oriented arsenal has produced rates of 10.67 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9. The curve (+2.01 runs/100 pitches) and change (+3.50) have been devastating, perhaps allowing Howell’s mid-80’s heat to play up (+0.97) as hitters sit off-speed.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes picked up his 24th save of the season on July 5th, but hasn’t taken the bump since. The former Colorado southpaw has lowered his walk rate for third season (from 3.38 BB/9 in 2007 to 2.76 BB/9 in ’09), a curious development given that his percentage of pitches within the zone has dipped from 52% in ’07 to 47.1% this year. Fuentes’ slurvy breaking pitch hasn’t been sharp (-1.19 runs/100), but his 90 MPH fastball (+1.91) is perplexing opponents.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs returns from the DL just as the Blue Jays unceremoniously dump former closer B.J. Ryan (not that Ryan’s diminished high-80’s fastball and frisbee slider posed much of a threat). The 33 year-old Downs had a superb first half (28/5 K/BB, 2.14 FIP in 27.1 IP). The question going forward will be: can Downs continue to get batters to chase his high-80’s sinker and big-breaking curve? One might be inclined to think Downs’ reduced walk rate (1.65 BB/9, 3.42 BB/9 career) is the product of sharper control, but that’s not the case. His Zone% is just 44.3. Rather, his O-Swing% is at 33%, 11 percent above his career mark and 8 percent above 2008’s clip.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a save vs. the A’s on Independence Day, then another versus the White Sox yesterday. It will take a long time for Kerry’s numbers to recover, though. For the year, he has issued 4.85 BB/9, with a -0.81 WPA. Believe it or not, Wood’s 96 MPH fastball has been one of the least effective in the majors (-1.47 runs/100). After garnering a 31.3 Outside-Swing% in 2008, Wood has baited batters to chase just 18.2% of the time in Cleveland (24.9% MLB avg.). That’s the third-lowest rate among relievers.

George Sherrill, Orioles

After a superb June (11 IP, 8/2 K/BB, 1 R), Sherrill’s July has been a mixed bag. He has surrendered 3 runs in 3.2 frames, with 5 K’s and 3 walks. The 32 year-old has a career-best 1.40 WPA and walk rate (3.06 BB/9). Is it time for the O’s to cash out?

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma picked up a spotless save against one of his former employers (Boston) on July 4th, but the control-challenged righty then had a disastrous appearance against Baltimore on the 8th (no outs recorded, 4 H, 5 R). He collected another SV versus the Rangers yesterday. Aardsma remains a good candidate to regress in the second half.

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

After a turbulent June (12 IP, 13 H, 9 R, 10/10 K/BB), Rodney has posted a 7/1 K/BB ratio in July. Still, Rodney’s K rate (8.05 per nine) is down, his Zone% (48.3) is a career-low, and opponents are making contact with his pitches within the zone at the highest rate (82.8%) since 2002.

Andruw Jones bashed three home runs last evening, taking his total up to 14 long balls for the season. Jones’ triple-slash line rests at .250/.348/.581, with a wOBA of .392. On a per-at-bat basis, Andruw has by far been Texas’ most productive hitter. Can you believe this is the same fellow who had to settle for a one-year, $500K deal this past winter?

One year ago, Jones was public enemy number one in Los Angeles. The ink was barely dry on the Curacao native’s two-year, $36.2M pact before the questions started rolling in. Jones looked to be following the David Wells training regimen, and a balky knee bothered him throughout the season. Jones produced one of the most execrable lines that you’ll ever see while in L.A. In 238 trips to the dish, Andruw “hit” .158/.256/.249, which translates to a wOBA of .234. For reference, Tony Pena Jr.’s career wOBA is .238.

Jones’ plummet was difficult to foresee. He entered the 2008 campaign at a listed age of 31. Subjectively, a player with a broad-based skill set such as Andruw’s would seem to be a good candidate to age well. During a “down” 2007 season, he was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, a near-All-Star level of performance. Yet, he just couldn’t hit anything. It scarcely mattered what the opposition decided to toss, Jones would be headed back to the dugout accompanied by a smattering of boo’s:

Jones’ runs/100 pitches, 2008:

Fastball: -1.01
Slider: -1.38
Cutter: -7.67
Curveball: -3.49
Changeup: -2.86
Splitter: -7.51

Despite his macabre work on the West Coast, the Rangers decided to give Jones an opportunity to make the club. Texas’ no-risk acquisition has rewarded them, big time. Jones had severe issues making contact last season (36.4 K%), but he has reduced his K rate to a more reasonable 25% this season. After grounding out 47.8% of the time with the Dodgers (well above his 41.4% average dating back to 2002), Andruw has rolled over the ball 36.9% in 2009. There’s a big rebound in his number of flyballs hit (38.8% in ’08 to 46.7% in ’09).

Jones has jumped on fastballs this year, with a run value of +2.14/100 pitches. He’s also in the black against sliders (+0.84) and changeups (+0.90), while posting negative values against cutters (-0.52) and curves (-2.36).

In less than 200 trips to the plate, with limited time in the field, Andruw has already managed to accumulate 1.4 WAR. Jones has some relatively minor performance bonuses based on PA’s, but he has delivered a massive return on investment for the Rangers. It’s probably too late to snatch Jones off the waiver wire, but he looks locked in right now. Expecting this level of offense is likely unreasonable. But if he continues to hit anywhere near this well, the Rangers are simply going to have to find more AB’s for the former Braves star. Jones stumbled badly last year, but he’s back to being an asset.

Stock Up

Brad Penny, Red Sox

A fastball-centric pitcher (throwing his heater nearly 71 percent of the time during his career), Penny saw his 2008 season blow up like a cheap ACME bomb as a shoulder injury robbed him of his cheddar (-1.44 runs/100 fastballs). The 31 year-old reclamation project got off to a rough start in Boston (6 K’s and 11 walks in 17.2 April innings), but Penny has heated up as his fastball has improved. Check out this trend:

Penny’s runs/100 value for his fastball

April: -2.95
May: +0.24
June: +0.82
July: +0.44

Penny’s FIP is down to 4.21 in 2009, with 6.19 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Dave Cameron noted Pavano’s unusually strong performance earlier this season , as the oft-injured tabloid punch line finally made some noise on the field. It was starting to look as though another injury was bothering Carl, as he surrendered a stunning 23 runs in a three-start stretch from June 10th to the 24th. However, Pavano has rebounded to turn in two excellent starts vs. the light-hitting White Sox and A’s (a combined 9 K, 2 BB and 4 R in 13.2 IP). The 33 year-old has an inflated 5.36 ERA in 2009 (the product of a .344 BABIP), but his FIP sits at a stellar 3.74.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

After suffering some absurdly high BABIP figures early in the season, Nolasco has been on a roll as of late. Then again, he wasn’t exactly pitching poorly prior to his demotion to AAA:

April: 2.44 K/BB, .393 BABIP
May: 3.75 K/BB, .285 BABIP
June: 6.6 K/BB, .284 BABIP
July: 6.0 K/BB, .214 BABIP

Nolasco’s K rate is up this year (8.72 from 7.88 in 2008), and he’s still been pretty sharp with his control (2.13 BB/9). His FIP checks in at 3.38 (over two runs lower than his 5.42 ERA) after a 12-strikeout mauling of the Pirates on Sunday.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

St. Louis’ number one prospect has been pretty aggressive at the dish (5 BB%, with a 51.3 Swing% above the 45% MLB average), but it’s pretty difficult to criticize a 22 year-old with a .204 ISO and a wOBA of .350. The lefty has already accumulated 2.6 Wins Above Replacement during his rookie year, third among all center fielders. Some of that is due to Colby posting out-of-his-mind UZR numbers (+26.9 UZR/150), but he has smacked 10 homers (including 3 already this month). His control of the zone should improve as he gains experience. Rasmus posted a walk rate of nearly 13 percent at AAA Memphis in 2008.

Brandon Inge, Tigers

Freed from the intense physical demands of the catching position, Inge has gone on a power binge that includes 19 big flys and a .374 wOBA. Inge’s .244 ISO is over 80 points above his career average (.162). While it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect this level of lumber production to persist, Inge is a better hitter than his career .239/.308/.401 line would indicate. That line is weighed down by a .199/.260/.330 showing in nearly 1,300 PA’s as a backstop. As a third baseman, Inge is a career .258/.330/.435 batter. That’s about what ZiPS expects from the 32 year-old during the rest of the ’09 season (.250/.331/.433).

Stock Down

Joe Saunders, Angels

A few months back, I wondered just how long Saunders could continue to post a mid-three’s ERA despite a minuscule K rate. Joe’s strikeout totals have trended upward as of late (6.2 K/9 in May and 6.6 K/9 in June), but the extra punchouts have come with more free passes (2.59 BB/9 in May, 3.79 BB/9 in June). Saunders’ ERA now sits at 4.44. According to XFIP (which judges a pitcher based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate), the lefty has trended south for the 4th straight season. He compiled a 4.58 XFIP in 2006, 4.62 in ’07, 4.75 in ’08 and 5.05 this year. This is basically who Saunders is: an average Joe 4th or 5th starter.

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Without revisiting the whole starter/reliever debate (which isn’t much of a debate when one digs deeper), Chamberlain still needs to make strides in terms of being more efficient on the bump. Joba just hasn’t located all the well this season, with 4.36 BB/9. The former Cornhusker has placed just 43.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, well below the 49.2% MLB average. With Joba battling his control, opposing batters have wisely kept the bat on their shoulders. Hitters have swung at just 37.9% of Chamberlain’s pitches (45% MLB average). The 23 year-old has an awfully bright future, but he’s not quite ready for prime time.

Brendan Harris, Twins

It’s a little strange that the Twins have decided to play a lesser defender at a premium position, but Harris has compensated by doing his best Punto impression at the dish (.302 wOBA). The 28 year-old righty batter posted a .341 wOBA as a regular with the Devil Rays in 2007, then turned in a .318 wOBA in his first year with the Twins. In ’09, Harris has barely cracked a .100 ISO (.103), while walking just 6 percent of the time. Breaking stuff has stymied him this year (-1.76 runs/100 pitches against sliders, -0.94 versus curveballs).

Ryan Sweeney, Athletics

With Scott Hairston now in green and gold, Sweeney could find himself relegated to fourth outfielder duty. A former top prospect with the White Sox, Sweeney is now 24 years old. The power some had anticipated developing in his 6-4, 215 pound frame just hasn’t appeared: his career ISO in the majors is .091. Sweeney is a gifted fielder; maybe he’ll develop in a Randy-Winn type whose glove compensates for a lack of punch. But the more likely scenario entails a long career as an extra fly catcher.

Chris Duncan, Cardinals

The fact that Duncan is even playing Major League Baseball is a testament to modern medicine, as he had a prosthetic disc inserted into his back last year. However, the 6-5, 230 pounder appears to have left some of his thump on the operating table. Duncan creamed the ball in 2006 (.296 ISO) and 2007 (.221), but that figure dipped to .117 during an injury-marred 2008 season and hasn’t recovered much in the first half of the year (.139). The 28 year-old hit the ball on the ground just 39.9% of the time in 2007, but that mark has climbed to 50.3% in 2009. Combine Duncan’s less-than-thunderous bat with his normally rocky fielding, and you have a replacement-level player (0.1 WAR).

Philadelphia Phillies fans are a little uneasy these days. Sure, the defending world champs sit atop the NL East standings, but by the narrowest of margins. Florida is just one game out, with New York and Atlanta each three paces back. Jimmy Rollins’ bat has gone the way of Jimmy Hoffa, and-gasp!- ace Cole Hamels holds an unsightly 4.98 ERA.

Before the Philly Phanatic (no doubt frustrated) resorts to another mascot beat down, I come bearing good news on the Hamels front. The 25 year-old changeup artist might have troubling surface numbers, but he’s arguably pitching better than he did during that magical 2008 season. Here are some reasons to believe Philly’s ace is headed for a big second half:

Hamels’ FIP is well below his ERA

Cole has punched out 8.15 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 1.91 BB/9. That 4.28 K/BB ratio has led to a sparkling 3.58 FIP, which ranks 20th among starting pitchers tossing at least 80 innings. Hamels has been victimized by a .371 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), the highest mark among starting pitchers by a wide margin (Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey is a distant second, at .352).

The Phillies largely have the same players on hand that let the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in 2008, but they rank more toward the middle of the pack this season (11th). Even if Philly isn’t scooping up balls put in play at least year’s vacuum-like pace, one would expect Hamel’s BABIP to regress heavily in the second half.

Cole’s career BABIP is .297, and flyball pitchers (his career GB% is 40.3%) tend to have lower BABIP figures in general. According to Baseball-Reference, the NL BABIP for flyballs is .222 in 2009, compared to .230 for groundballs. Hamels, by comparison, has allowed a .268 BABIP on grounders and .314 BABIP on flyballs. He is allowing line drives at an elevated clip (25.7%), which in part explains the higher overall BABIP (line drives tend to fall for hits around 73% of the time), but given his strong peripherals it would be difficult to say that opposing batters are squaring up his pitches all that often.

The 1.4 run difference between Hamels’ FIP and ERA is the second-highest among starters. Only Cleveland’s Carl Pavano (5.36 ERA, 3.75 FIP) has more to gripe about in 2009.

Cole’s contact rates are down from last season

Overall, opposing batters have made contact with 76.2% of Hamels’ offerings, below the 80.6% MLB average and slightly lower than last season’s 76.9% mark. On pitches within the strike zone, Hamels’ contact rate is 80.1%. That’s well below the 87.7% MLB average, and more than three percentage points below 2008’s rate (83.4%).

Hamels’ stuff is the same

Here are Hamels’ 2008 and 2009 figures for horizontal (X) and vertical (Z) movement (a positive X number indicates tailing action in on the hands of lefty hitters, while a negative Z number indicates that the pitch breaks downward more than a ball thrown without spin):

(FB=fastball, CH=changeup, CB=curveball)

2008

FB: 1.9 X, 12 Z
CH: 6.2 X, 7.9 Z
CB: -1.7, -4.0 Z

2009

FB: 3.1 X, 12.5 Z
CH: 7.5 X, 8.2 Z
CB: -1.1 X, -4.0 Z

Hamels’ fastball is tailing in on southpaws a little more, but the differential between his fastball and changeup, in terms of horizontal and vertical break, is basically unchanged. The difference in horizontal break between the fastball and changeup was 4.3 inches in 2008, and 4.4 inches in ’09. In terms of vertical movement, the changeup dropped 4.1 inches more than the fastball in 2008, and 4.3 inches in ’09. Velocity-wise, the gap between fastball and changeup was 10.5 MPH in 2008. In 2009, it’s about 9.7 MPH.

This would be a great time to try and pry Hamels away from a vexed owner, who expected big numbers and might be willing to part with him for a lower sum. Hamels is the same superb starter he has always been, and his surface stats should begin to align with his peripherals in the coming months.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Aside from showing Zen-like plate discipline by drawing a bases-loaded walk against K-Rod, Rivera collected three more saves this week (taking him to 20 for the year). Mo mowed down 3 hitters in 3.1 innings, allowing 1 hit. That takes his K/BB ratio for the year up to a ridiculous 40/3 in 32.2 IP. Rivera’s XFIP figures since 2006: 3.64, 3.06, 2.44, 1.93. For more on how Rivera has managed to make hitters look silly with essentially one pitch for a decade and a half, check out Dave Allen’s piece on two very different kinds of cutters. It may technically be the same pitch, but Rivera works both sides of the plate against righty and lefty hitters alike.

Joe Nathan, Twins

The 34 year-old Nathan could be turning in the best season of his career. His K/BB ratio is an obscene 6.5 in 2009 (a career-high), with a 1.95 FIP bested only by LA’s Broxton and Atlanta’s Soriano. The last time Nathan allowed a run was May 15th, a stretch of 16.2 IP. During June, this far-from-ordinary Joe whiffed 18 batters while issuing a single walk in 11.2 IP.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim collected two saves this week, slamming the door on the Pirates June 28th and the Twins the following night. Soria’s FIP is 2.39 for the year, with 23 K’s in 18.2 IP. The 25 year-old has an awfully deep mix of pitches for a reliever, and he’s mixing it up more since his rookie season. In 2007, Soria tossed his fastball 77.2% of the time. He used the heat 72.4% last year, and 67.6% in 2009, as he relies more on a wicked 70 MPH curveball (+4.76 runs/100 pitches career) and low-80’s change (+0.98).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon picked up 3 saves this week, while blowing one opportunity vs. the O’s on the 30th as part of that absurd 11-10 Baltimore comeback. Perhaps Papelbon’s early-season control issues are in the rearview mirror: he has issued just 1 free pass over his past 5 innings. Still, his FIP (4.21) is well above his accustomed level (2.01 in ’08 and 2.45 in ’07), with just 8.74 K/9 (10 K/9 in ’08, 12.96 in ’07).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks pitched just twice this week, getting a W vs. the cross-town Cubbies June 27th and getting the save against the Royals yesterday. The 6-3, 275 pounder is turning in a superb year, with 8.79 K/9 (a marked increase from last year’s 5.55 K/9) and 1.88 BB/9. Some poor luck on flyballs has put a damper on the overall numbers, but Jenks has recovered his strikeout ability and velocity (95.4 MPH fastball in 2009, 93.8 last year) while further refining his control.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Re-inserted as Texas’ closer, Francisco had a rough return when the Angels pummeled him for 3 runs, two walks and a homer on July 1st. In a season interrupted by elbow and shoulder pain, Frank has posted a 26/7 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings. His split-finger pitch is stifling the opposition, with a +4.58 run/100 pitch value in 2009. Normally a wild child (4.43 BB/9 career), Francisco has issued 2.66 BB/9 this season.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey continues to crush hitters in the late innings. While he didn’t get a save this week, he eviscerated the competition to the tune of 7 K’s and 1 hit in 3 innings (his FIP sits at 2.65 for the year). Bailey’s three-pitch mix has limited batters to a Z-Contact% (percentage of contact made on pitches within the strike zone) of 70.8%, light years below the 87.7% MLB average.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes didn’t give up a single run in June (8.2 IP, 11 K, 3 BB), and he started off July with another scoreless frame against the O’s yesterday. His walk rate is down to 2.86 per nine innings (a career low), with a 3.11 FIP that trumps the 3.34 mark posted by the Queens-bound man he replaced in Los Angeles.

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has taken the past five save chances for the Rays, a great development for fantasy owners. The 26 year-old converted starter is among the very best ‘pen arms in the majors, with 10.71 K/9, and a 2.47 FIP. J.P. supplements a deceptively effective mid-80’s fastball (+0.87 runs/100 in 2009) with a knockout 80 MPH curve (+2.28) and changeup (+2.91). He may not fit the fire-breathing closer archetype, but he’s damned hard to make contact against. Howell’s 68.3% contact rate ranks 6th among relievers tossing at least 30 IP. If the save chances keep on coming, he’ll surely climb this list.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood didn’t get a save chance this week, but he and the Indians will gladly take two scoreless innings, given his turbulent beginning in Cleveland. The 32 year-old Texan still has a walk rate nearing 5.3 per nine innings, with a -0.99 WPA that places him in the bottom 10 among all relievers. The Tribe acquired another hard-throwing, control-challenged ‘pen arm in Chris Perez (acquired from St. Louis along with a PTBNL for Mark DeRosa), but he doesn’t seem likely to challenge Wood this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill was shellacked by Boston on July 1st, walking three and giving up 2 runs in a 6-5 loss. Overall, the 32 year-old southpaw has a 3.62 FIP and a 1.22 WPA. Sherrill’s shiny 2.51 ERA and “Proven Closer” moniker could make him attractive to bullpen-starved teams. The O’s are reportedly still unsure of whether or not to ship Sherrill elsewhere, but it definitely seems to make sense. The club has an outstanding crop of talent, but the A.L. East is a whole different beast; they’re not contending now, and George won’t be part of the next competitive Baltimore team.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma collected a save vs. the Dodgers on June 28th, then tossed a scoreless frame against the Yankees (no save) yesterday in an 8-4 win. The flame-throwing 27 year-old is fooling plenty of hitters (11.33 K/9, with a contact rate in the low-70’s), but his XFIP (4.01) is considerably higher than his ERA (1.45). If there’s a place Aardsma can keep defying convention, though, it’s Seattle (the flyball righty resides in a park that suppresses homers and has the benefit of Gutierrez and Ichiro! in the outfield).

Jason Frasor (Scott Downs on the DL with a toe injury), Blue Jays

Frasor didn’t get a save op this week, but he did make two scoreless appearances (vs. Philly on June 28th and Tampa on July 1st). He did walk two in two innings, however. Frasor’s walk rate will be worth monitoring in the following weeks. He has issued just 2.28 BB/9, but that’s more the product of more outside swings (25.1% O-swing% in ’09, 19.7 in 2007) than some newfound ability to paint the corners.

Meanwhile, Downs is on the comeback trail (he threw off a mound for the first time June 30th). Downs seems to feel he’s close to a return…

“It’s progress,” Downs said. “It wouldn’t be the first time I pitched through discomfort. It’s not discomfort enough to where it’s affecting my mechanics and that’s the main thing.” (mlb.com)

…While manager Cito Gaston is less convinced…

“I hope he is but I really dont know,” said Gaston. “I have no confidence in that at all.” (Jordan Bastian)

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney dips back down to “Watch Your Back” territory, following a flammable June that saw him get hammered for 9 runs in 12 IP. Fernando issued an ugly 10 free passes during June, locating just 45% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.2% MLB average). Rodney’s FIP has ballooned to 4.04. Granted, Zumaya (5.05 FIP, 5.47 BB/9) hasn’t been some beacon of stability. But the Tigers could explore trade possibilities over the next month.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton had a relatively light week of work, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing considering that he’s on pace to chuck 76 innings this season (that’s nothing compared to Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario, however: Troncoso is on a 105-inning pace and Belisario projects to throw 96 frames). Jon notched one save in two appearances vs. Colorado, whiffing five batters in the process. If Broxton is wearing out, it’s certainly not showing up in his velocity readings: his average fastball checked in at 97.3 MPH in June (97.5 MPH for the year). The 25 year-old has increased his fastball velocity every season in the majors, from 94.4 MPH in 2005 to that near-98 MPH reading in ’09. His run values for the pitch (per 100 pitches) since 2005? 0.17, -0.30, +0.69. +1.38 and +1.60 in 2009.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath corralled the state of Texas this week, notching a save vs. the Rangers on June 28th and another against Houston on the 30th. Bell still hasn’t been taken deep in 33.2 innings this season, racking up a +2.17 Win Probability Added (WPA) that’s tied for 7th among relievers. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, could Bell be switching uni’s? The Padres have considerable work to do on the rebuilding front, and hording a 31 year-old reliever, no matter the quality, wouldn’t seem to be a wise move.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez had an embarrassing week, featuring what is likely the lowest point of his distinguished career: a bases-loaded walk to closer deity Mariano Rivera, of all people. K-Rod walked three in that appearance against the Yankees on the 28th, got a spotless save against Milwaukee July 1st then blew up again yesterday afternoon in a rain-drenched affair against the Pirates (4 H, 2R, 1 HR in 2 IP). Is it time to be concerned here? In 2006, Rodriguez posted a 3.5 K/BB ratio with the Angels. In 2009, that figure has nearly been cut in half (1.82 K/BB). He’s lost 3 punchouts per nine innings since ’06, and his walk rate (4.99 BB/9) is up for the 4th straight season. Rodriguez has never jumped out ahead of hitters, but check out his First-Pitch Strike% totals (MLB average is 58%):

2006: 57.4
2007: 57.2
2008: 54.5
2009: 48.8

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor was touched up for two runs and 4 hits against the Giants on June 27th, then came back to pick up a save vs. the Mets on the 29th (his 18th). Like the man who replaced him in San Diego, Hoffman hasn’t surrendered a home run this year. Believe it or not, his 85 MPH fastball has been remarkably effective in 2009. Among relievers tossing at least 20 innings, Hoffman’s +3.03 runs/100 with the pitch ranks 2nd. Hoffman’s vaunted low-70’s changeup (+3.60/100 pitches) has also been dastardly. The fastball/changeup combo is all about working up and down the for all-time saves leader: his fastball and changeup barely move horizontally at all (1 inch of tail in on righties for the fastball, with 3 inches of tail for the change). However, there’s a half-foot of difference in terms of vertical movement (12.4 inches for the fastball, 6.6 for the changeup). The MLB average is less than 4 inches of difference.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Pitching at less-than-optimum health (strained forearm), Qualls surrendered 8 runs in 9.2 frames during the month of June. Opponents slugged .535 against him during the month, as he punched out 5 batters. Qualls’ numbers for the season (8.16 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, 64.6 GB%) are excellent, but have been dragged down by a .350 BABIP.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge had another stomach-churning appearance on June 26th, coughing up 2 runs and 2 walks in 1/3 of an inning vs. the Blue Jays. He did recover to collect a save two nights later against Toronto. Let’s try to be positive here: Lidge has suffered from a .371 BABIP and a 17.9 HR/FB rate. Still, his walk rate (5.6 BB/9, 46 Zone%) is troubling. None of Lidge’s pitches are working. His fastball (-3.45 runs/100 pitches) is the least effective among all relievers, and the oft-utilized slider comes in at -0.59/100 pitches (+2.50 in 2008).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Coco Cordero threw a scoreless frame versus Cleveland June 27th (no save), picked up a SV against Arizona July 1st and got a W despite walking three batters against the D-Backs the following night. Cordero’s K/BB ratio has dipped to 1.93, with his K rate falling by a decent margin (7.68 K/9, down from 9.98 last year). His low BABIP (.264) and HR/FB rate (3.2%) suggest that the 1.85 ERA is more smoke and mirrors than great pitching. Cordero’s XFIP (based on K’s, walks, and a normalized HR/FB rate) sits over two runs higher (3.93).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps picked up two saves this week (against the Royals and Cubs), but it wasn’t a particularly good week for the Big Bull Rider. He served up a homer to Mark Teahen on June 26th, then took a loss against the Mets yesterday afternoon. Capps won’t be 26 until September, but don’t be entirely surprised if his name enters trade discussion over the next month. The Pirates surely aren’t shy about jettisoning players if they feel the return is right.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street sealed the deal twice this week, with saves against his former employer (the A’s) on June 27th and 28th. After a mediocre 2008 season (-0.01 WPA), Street has rebounded by increasing his K/BB ratio from 2.56 to 3.90 (+0.98 WPA). After locating just 47.5% of his pitches in the zone last season, Huston has increased that figure to 51.2% with the Rockies (49.2 MLB average, 51.4 career average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande pitched twice this past week, blowing a save against Detroit on June 28th (2 R, including a homer by Brandon Inge). Working his way back from a nasty calf injury, Valverde hasn’t gotten ahead of hitters as well as he normally does. His First-Pitch Strike% is just 55.1 (65.3 in 2007 and 61.4 in 2008). To boot, opponents are making contact with 84.1% of his pitches within the zone (76.2 career average). Despite all that negativity, Valverde still has a 20/5 K/BB in 16.2 innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Franklin continues to defy logic by holding an eye-popping 99.1% strand rate and a .206 BABIP. Those measures say “regression” in bold, glowing, neon lights. Yet, St. Louis’ stopper hasn’t given up a run since May 20th (a stretch of 13 appearances). It helps that Franklin just plain doesn’t walk anyone (1.45 BB/9; he last gave up a free pass May 27th).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had his 13-appearance scoreless streak busted on June 27th vs. the Brewers, as he was beaten to the tune of 3 runs and 4 hits in 0.2 innings. He then came back to notch a 1.1-inning save vs. St. Louis on June 30th. On the positive side, Wilson’s 96 MPH heater is humming (+1.50 runs/100). On the other hand, he’s throwing about 5 percent fewer pitches within the strike zone (54.3 in ’08, 49.2 in ’09). His WPA for the year sits at -0.87. That’s in the same territory as discarded Twin Luis Ayala and maligned middle man Aaron Heilman.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzalez notched a save against the Red Sox on June 28th, with Soriano picking up a SV yesterday against the Phillies after Ryan Madson coughed up 3 runs. Soriano bests Gonzalez in WPA (2.2 to 0.97) and K/BB ratio (3.77 to 3.4), and he was used in more high-leverage situations than Gonzo in June (1.68 Leverage Index to 1.48 for Gonzalez). They’re both qualified, and figuring out who gets the 9th-inning opportunity will come down to matchups and recent usage compared to just pigeonholing one guy as “closer” and the other “set-up man.” Imagine that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg turned in a much-needed, serene week for the Cubs. He gathered three saves (one against the White Sox and two vs. the Bucs), whiffing three and not surrendering a hit in 3 IP. Gregg’s numbers for the year aren’t anything to write home about, but his WPA is up to 0.45 and he has stopped handing out walks like they’re sticks of Juicy Fruit (1.5 K/BB in April, 2.4 in May and 3.67 in June).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Nunez appears to be the guy pegged for save ops for Florida in Lindstrom’s absence. The lithe, live-armed 25 year old (formerly of the Pittsburgh and Kansas City organizations) boasts a 94 MPH fastball, mid-80’s slider and a hard mid-80’s change. While those offerings didn’t lead to many whiffs in 2008 (4.84 K/9), Nunez has punched out 8.49 batters per nine innings this season. Opponents aren’t making a whole lot of contact with his stuff (72.4% overall, compared to the 80.6% MLB average), but Nunez could stand to stop getting into so many hitter’s counts (53.4 First-Pitch Strike%).

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal picked up a save against the O’s on June 28th, while also seeing one of his competitors (Joel Hanrahan) shipped to the ‘Burgh. Not that the former Royal and White Sock should enjoy any great job security: in 18.2 IP, MacDougal has a 10/15 K/BB ratio.

While no rookie starting pitcher has exploded onto the scene a-la-Dontrelle Willis in 2003, MLB fans have been treated to a steady stream of premium young arms getting their first extended looks in the majors. The Cahill’s, Anderson’s, Porcello’s, Price’s and Hanson’s have all gotten plenty of attention. However, another extremely gifted youngster has largely gone under the radar in our nation’s capital. The Washington Nationals may be plagued by a laundry list of issues, but Jordan Zimmermann ’s starts are turning into must-see TV (well, MLB.TV) for this fan.

Since making his debut April 20th, the Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point product has posted a 3.55 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Zimmermann has punched out an excellent 8.91 batters per nine innings, while limiting the free passes with 2.55 BB/9. Among starters tossing at least 60 innings, the 23 year-old righty has the 23rd-best FIP. His 3.45 K/BB ratio ranks 18th, just ahead of Florida’s Josh Johnson. Yet, Zimmermann’s ERA sits at 4.65. What’s the deal?

Unfortunately, the 6-2, 200 pounder is backed by the worst defensive squad in baseball. The Nationals rank last in team Ultimate Zone Rating and 29th in Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs). While a strikeout pitcher like Zimmermann isn’t as harmed by lousy D (he doesn’t put the ball in play as often), his BABIP sits at .331.

In terms of the things Zimmermann has more direct control over, he has been superb. Opposing hitters have hacked at pitches outside of the strike zone 28.4% of the time (24.9 MLB average). Zimmermann is inducing contact on the first pitch or getting ahead of the batter 0-and-1 often. His First-Pitch Strike% sits at 66.3, well above the 58% MLB average. His rate of first-pitch strikes places 7th among starters tossing at least 60 frames.

Zimmermann also comes equipped with a power pitcher’s arsenal. He utilizes a 93 MPH fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curveball and a mid-80’s changeup. While the fastball (-0.53 runs/100 pitches) and curve (-0.43) have been ordinary, Zimmermann’s slider (+1.65) and changeup (+2.08) have been wicked.

You wouldn’t know it from a cursory look at his numbers, but Jordan Zimmermann has pitched like an ace during his rookie season. He’s striking out nearly a batter per inning, limiting the walks (his 53.4 Zone% is about 4 percent above the MLB average) and possesses stuff that compares favorably to any other rookie in the majors. Time will tell who becomes the most successful out of 2009’s batch of rookies, but Zimmermann is certainly deserving of a place in the conversation.

Stock Up

Jason Hammel, Rockies

Out of options this past spring, Hammel was shipped from the Rays to the Rockies for minor league righty Aneury Rodriguez. While the 21 year-old Dominican is struggling with his control in Double-A (4.99 BB/9), Hammel has posted an impressive 3.73 FIP in 72.2 innings.

The 26 year-old Hammel has punched out 6.32 hitters per nine innings, while issuing 2.35 BB/9. That’s a marked improvement over his work with the Rays from 2006-2008, when he walked in excess of four per nine frames each season. Hammel’s fastball (-1.41 runs/100 pitches) and changeup (-2.8) are getting hit hard, but his mid-80’s slider (+1.33) and mid-70’s curve (+3.34) are getting the job done. Colorado’s starters rank 7th in the majors in team FIP. Who knew?

Seth Smith, Rockies

Dave Cameron’s Seth Smith Liberation Party scored a major victory recently, as new Rockies skipper Jim Tracy said that the 26 year-old lefty hitter will receive more playing time. Smith owns a .391 wOBA in 290 career plate appearances in the big leagues, while showing excellent plate discipline (14.9 BB%, 21.3 Outside-Swing%). That level of performance is unlikely to persist, but ZIPS sees Smith swatting a highly-useful .296/.371/.487 during the rest of the season.

B.J. Upton, Rays

Following offseason shoulder surgery and a short DL stint, Upton got off to an inauspicious start (.177/.320/.226 in April, .218/.285/.323 in May). Perhaps the 24 year-old is now fully recovered from going under the knife, as he holds a .333/.400/.556 line in June (4 HR). Has Upton recovered his bat speed? His numbers against fastballs certainly suggest that’s the case:

April: -1.85 Runs/100
May: -0.97 Runs/100
June: +2.76 Runs/100

To boot, B.J. is on pace to far surpass his stolen base total last season (44), with 28 swipes in 35 attempts. This is the player whom I likened to a young Carlos Beltran this past off-season.

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto’s sock is back. Geovany’s slugging percentages over the first three months: .130 in April, .354 in May and .559 in June. After hitting one dinger during the first two months, Soto has smacked 6 in June. It might take a while for his season numbers to look more in line with pre-season expectations, but Soto is allaying concerns that an early-season shoulder injury would wreck his 2009 campaign.

Randy Johnson, Giants

While Johnson’s 4.68 ERA looks unimpressive, The Big Unit is still pretty darned nasty. He has whiffed 8.17 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.94. Johnson has given up his fair share of homers over the past few seasons, but his 17.1 HR/FB rate well above his 10.8% mark in 2007. R.J.’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate) is 3.57 in 2009. That ranks 7th in the N.L. Don’t be surprised if that ERA continues to dip.

Stock Down

Adrian Beltre, Mariners

While he’s backing M’s pitchers with his customary stellar D (+16.7 UZR/150) and is beginning to hit the ball with more authority (.319/.347/.468 in June), Beltre will unfortunately have to undergo surgery to remove bone chips from his right shoulder. He could be out up to two months.

The 30 year-old will be an interesting free agent this winter. Though some seem to view Beltre’s deal with the Mariners as a mistake, Beltre was valued almost perfectly by Seattle. Inked to a 5-year, $64M deal prior to the 2005 season, Beltre has provided a total of 15.5 Wins Above Replacement. That has been worth $62.4M.

Prior to this year’s injury-plagued work at the plate, the righty hitter posted an average of 8.2 park-adjusted Batting Runs from 2006-2008. He’s a good hitter masked by Safeco, a wonderful fielder and one of the least appreciated performers in the game.

Mike Jacobs, Royals

Jacobs has done a better job of working the count this season (9.7 BB%, 7.9% career average), but he’s largely been the same contact-challenged (31.3 K%) platoon hitter who’s helpless versus lefties (.205/.284/.301). The arbitration-eligible Jacobs (making $3.25M this year) has provided -0.1 WAR for K.C. In other news, Kila Kaaihue
is hitting .273/.412/.508 at AAA Omaha, drawing a walk 19.6% of the time.

Shairon Martis, Nationals

Martis is another example of why Win-Loss records for starters just don’t mean very much. The 22 year-old Dutchman holds a 5-3 mark, but he just isn’t getting the job done at the major league level. Martis’ FIP is a grisly 5.43, as he has walked more hitters (4.10 BB/9) than he has struck out (3.57 K/9). Perhaps realizing that he could use more seasoning while simultaneously limiting his innings, the Nationals optioned Martis to AAA Syracuse.

Andy Sonnanstine, Rays

Sonnanstine has been scorched to the tune of a 5.10 FIP, as he has surrendered 1.65 HR/9. His XFIP is a less-ugly 4.62, but the Kent State control artist hasn’t been as sharp this season. Sonny’s K/BB ratio was 3.35 in ’08, but that dipped to 2.27 in 2009 as his K rate fell slightly (5.77 to 5.51) and his rate of free passes dished out rose from 1.72 to 2.42. Sonnanstine’s five-pitch mix led to a 64 First-Pitch Strike% in 2008 (9th-best among starters), but that figure has tumbled to a league-average 58% this year. The 26 year-old was optioned to AAA Durham to make way for Scott Kazmir.

Hank Blalock, Rangers

When is a projected 36-homer season not all that valuable? When it comes with a 5.3% walk rate and a .284 OBP. Hank is hammerin’ the ball (.266 ISO), but the all-or-nothing approach has led to a wOBA (.332) slightly below the league average. Counter intuitively, Blalock has become more of a free-swinger as the years have gone by. He drew a free pass 9.2% of the time in 2007 and 6.9% in 2008, before this year’s new low point.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon turned in his first poor week at the office, surrendering 4 runs, 2 walks and a homer (his first of the year) in two appearances against the Angels on June 20th and 21st. His numbers are still fantastic for the season, however: 14.38 K/9, a 1.41 FIP and a 2.79 WPA that leads all relievers.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell racked up 2 saves this week, while also picking up a win (4 IP total). Remarkably, Heath still hasn’t given up a homer in 31.1 innings. Bell has ratcheted up the use of his fastball in recent seasons (from 64% in ’07 to 76.2% this year), and with good reason: the pitch has a run value of +2.07/100 pitches this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod was touched up against the Orioles on the 18th (2 H, 2 BB), but he has tossed three scoreless innings (3 saves) since. Rodriguez’s peripherals continue to head south, however. His K rate (9.59) is down for a 4th straight season, and his walk rate (4.79 BB/9) is a career high. A .223 BABIP and a 2.2 HR/FB rate have kept his surface numbers at an elite level, but there are some cracks in the foundation here.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

With the Brew Crew rotation featuring Gallardo and four punching bags, Hoffman’s work has been scarce (Milwaukee has dropped 5 out of 6 games). Trevor has been mortal this month (including a blown save and 2 runs surrendered against the Indians on the 17th), but he still boasts a 19/4 K/BB ratio in 21.2 frames. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a big fly, either.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a turbulent beginning to the month of June while dealing with forearm soreness (7 runs in his first 6 appearances), Qualls delivered two scoreless appearances on the 24th and 25th. Qualls’ fastball velocity hasn’t suffered, but the pitch hasn’t been as effective this season. His heater has a -0.34 run value per 100 tosses, including an ugly -4.16 mark in June (+1.68 in 2008).

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge is off the DL following a pair of quality rehab appearances for Single-A Clearwater. “Lights out” returns to a line that includes some truly gruesome figures. He ranks dead last in WPA (-2.20), with the least productive heater among ‘pen arms (-3.36 runs per 100 pitches). Opponents have made contact with 87.9% of Lidge’s offerings within the zone, well above his 74.8% career average. Let’s hope that the rest and mended knee fix this previously dominant closer.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero finally served up a big fly this week, amazingly his first since September 20th, 2008. He picked up 3 saves during the week, with a 1.44 WPA for the season. Hitters continue to make more contact with Cordero’s stuff (64.5% in 2007, 70.7 in 2007 and 76.8% in 2008). However, nearly all of that extra contact has come on pitches outside of the zone: Cordero’s O-Contact% has gone from 35.1% in ’07 to 63.5% in ’09.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps hasn’t collected a save since June 14th, but he has tossed two scoreless frames since then, including a pair against the Indians. Happily, Capps’ normally razor-sharp control appears to be returning. He has issued just 1 walk in 9 innings this month, while locating 60.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (51.6% in April and May).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has been an awfully busy man for the surging Rockies, with 8 saves in June. Huston’s K rate has bounced back this season, from 8.87 per nine innings in 2008 to 10.16 per nine in ’09, and his walk rate is down from 3.47/9 last year to 2.61. Street’s slider has been deadly, with a run value of +4.07 per 100 pitches (one of the 10 highest rates among relievers).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has returned to ninth-inning duties rather well. He did blow a save against the Royals on June 24th, but he collected 4 saves since our last “Closer Report” while issuing just one walk. Valverde’s fastball (95.5 MPH) is humming, though opponents have made contact within the zone 85.7% of the time this season (76.2% career average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Has anyone seen Mr. Franklin? He hasn’t gotten into a game since June 20th, when he picked up a 1.1 inning save against the Royals. Franklin’s strand rate sits at an impossibly high 99.1%, making St. Louis’ ninth-inning man the best escape artist since Houdini. His FIP (3.21) is over 2.2 runs higher than his ERA (1.00).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Good Vibrations: The last time Wilson was scored upon was all the way back on May 21st. Since then, San Fran’s stopper has turned in 13.2 squeaky clean innings, with 16 K’s and four walks. His strikeout rate is up for a third consecutive campaign (6.85 in ’07, 9.67 in ’08, 9.79 this season), and his fastball run value (+1.71 per 100 pitches) is a career best.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano and Gonzalez appear to be engaged in a strikeout battle. Soriano (12.3 K/9) picked up the save against the Cubs on the 22nd, and now holds a 1.90 WPA. Gonzalez (11.65 K/9) has tossed five scoreless, walk-free frames since a 4-run meltdown on June 16th. His WPA sits at 1.20. Expect the time-share to continue for the foreseeable future. Both are well-qualified, and Bobby Cox knows that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Well, so much for Angel Guzman’s covert attempt to swipe the closer’s role. The Venezuelan’s talent is only surpassed by his propensity to end up on the trainer’s table (this time, it’s a right triceps strain).

Gregg continues to do his best Joe Borowski imitation. The former Angel and Marlin had been working on a 9.2 inning scoreless streak, but he then used up some of that good will by blowing a game against Detroit on the 23rd (Ryan Raburn took him deep). His WPA (0.09) is just slightly in the black. Gregg has really ramped up the usage of his low-80’s slider (32.4% this year, 23.6% in ’08), but the pitch’s run value has dipped from +0.70 in 2008 to -1.01 this year.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer and Renyel Pinto are candidates

After two more blow ups (a combined 5 runs and 7 hits in 1.2 IP), Lindstrom heads to the DL with a triceps injury. Perhaps the time off will mend whatever has caused him to lose control of the strike zone: the high-octane righty issued 2.82 BB/9 in 2007, 4.08 in 2008 and a stunning 6.21 this season. Lindstrom’s velocity wasn’t suffering, but his Zone% dipped to a below-average 48.8% this season (51.5% in ’08 and 54% in ’07). Lindstrom is not expected back until August.

In his absence, Nunez, Meyer and Pinto will battle for save ops. Surprisingly, Meyer has resurrected his career in Florida and looks like the best hope for fantasy owners. The former Braves and Athletics prospect has recovered from a nasty shoulder injury to author a 3.48 FIP and a 4.29 K/BB ratio.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal has a 4.2 inning scoreless streak going, but it’s hard to get excited when that comes with nary a strikeout and 2 walks. Mac has a K/BB ratio of 9/13 this season, with just 43.4% of his pitches hitting the strike zone (49.1% MLB average). It would be best to look elsewhere.