Zimmermann: Best Rookie Pitcher?
While no rookie starting pitcher has exploded onto the scene a-la-Dontrelle Willis in 2003, MLB fans have been treated to a steady stream of premium young arms getting their first extended looks in the majors. The Cahill’s, Anderson’s, Porcello’s, Price’s and Hanson’s have all gotten plenty of attention. However, another extremely gifted youngster has largely gone under the radar in our nation’s capital. The Washington Nationals may be plagued by a laundry list of issues, but Jordan Zimmermann ’s starts are turning into must-see TV (well, MLB.TV) for this fan.
Since making his debut April 20th, the Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point product has posted a 3.55 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Zimmermann has punched out an excellent 8.91 batters per nine innings, while limiting the free passes with 2.55 BB/9. Among starters tossing at least 60 innings, the 23 year-old righty has the 23rd-best FIP. His 3.45 K/BB ratio ranks 18th, just ahead of Florida’s Josh Johnson. Yet, Zimmermann’s ERA sits at 4.65. What’s the deal?
Unfortunately, the 6-2, 200 pounder is backed by the worst defensive squad in baseball. The Nationals rank last in team Ultimate Zone Rating and 29th in Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs). While a strikeout pitcher like Zimmermann isn’t as harmed by lousy D (he doesn’t put the ball in play as often), his BABIP sits at .331.
In terms of the things Zimmermann has more direct control over, he has been superb. Opposing hitters have hacked at pitches outside of the strike zone 28.4% of the time (24.9 MLB average). Zimmermann is inducing contact on the first pitch or getting ahead of the batter 0-and-1 often. His First-Pitch Strike% sits at 66.3, well above the 58% MLB average. His rate of first-pitch strikes places 7th among starters tossing at least 60 frames.
Zimmermann also comes equipped with a power pitcher’s arsenal. He utilizes a 93 MPH fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curveball and a mid-80’s changeup. While the fastball (-0.53 runs/100 pitches) and curve (-0.43) have been ordinary, Zimmermann’s slider (+1.65) and changeup (+2.08) have been wicked.
You wouldn’t know it from a cursory look at his numbers, but Jordan Zimmermann has pitched like an ace during his rookie season. He’s striking out nearly a batter per inning, limiting the walks (his 53.4 Zone% is about 4 percent above the MLB average) and possesses stuff that compares favorably to any other rookie in the majors. Time will tell who becomes the most successful out of 2009’s batch of rookies, but Zimmermann is certainly deserving of a place in the conversation.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
He looks good so far today in Florida. Josh Johnson on the other hand… what’s up with the intentional walk to Nieves to get to Zimmermann, only to let him single in a run? Makes no sense to me.
I don’t think it was part of the strategy to let Zimmermann hit a single.
Brad,
I think it actually makes plenty of sense. There were two outs and first base was open when Nieves came up to bat. Why not put him on first and pitch to the guy who gets paid to pitch rather than swing the bat? I think lots of managers would have played it the same way….
Because that guy that gets paid to swing the bat actually hits like he’s paid to pitch.
Another rookie pitcher (also pitching today) not getting enough recognition is Ricky Romero in Toronto
Wrong link – his name has an extra “n” at the end.
I think Koji Uehara (3.51 FIP, 6.48 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9) would be in this conversation if he could stay healthy and get deeper into games. Of course, there is the argument that he’s not much of a rookie, being a 34 year old Japanese import.
The fact these import “rookies” can qualify for RoY, just makes me lol…
Id say Ricky Romero is the best rookie pitcher out there so far. Unlike every other rookie, he is consistently going deep into games, and it’s not because he throws a lot of pitches, he is very efficient. He is averaging 6 1/2 innings per start, and has in fact pitched into the 7th in all but 3 of his starts. It’s a shame he was injured, otherwise he would have somewhere around the tune of 16 starts and would be on everyone’s radar.
In plate discipline, compared to Zimmermann, hitters are making far less contact on his outside-zone pitches (49.7% to 69.3%) and overall (76.9% to 80.6%), but his first pitch strike and zone rates are at or below league average. Everything else is very similar.
His FIP may be a little high, but thats almost certainly because of his 17% HR/FB rate. He also gives up a lot less line drives (17.4% to 24.5%), so he helps his own cause by making it easier for fielders to record an out. His K/9 and BB/9 of 7.55 and 3.02 aren’t too shabby either.
Its a close one, but personally i think its more important to get a lot of innings out of your starter and to rest your bullpen, and the 2 are close enough to make the innings advantage important.
And his defense just got better with the addition of Nyjer Morgan.
Nice use of the possessive form. That’s the type of bold grammar usage that keeps me coming back to Fangraphs over and over again.
Randy Wells and his 3.24 FIP and 6.3 IP/start would beg to differ. Sure, Zimmerman and Romero maybe have more long-term upside, but Wells has been a revelation in Chicago. Groundball tendencies, impeccable command (2.0 BB/9), and a great presence on the mound point. When he first came up this year he was asked what the most important thing he had ever been told about pitching was and he answered “Throw strikes or go home” – not the kind of mentality most young pitchers have. Obviously he is already 26, but if we’re talking about best performance as a rookie and not not best chance of future success, Wells has to be in the conversation.
I would argue that Brandon Webb should have gotten more attention than Willis in 2003
I agree Zimmermann deserves much more credit, but even if he had better “mainstream” stats, he would probably not finish in the top 3. I’m not saying this because I don’t like him, it is just that he pitches for the Nationals, and no matter his production, there is no way in today’s game that he will garner enough attention.
Another rookie who pitched very well was Hanson on the 4th. 7 innings of 3 hit, 1 walk ball with only a solo home run allowed to Adam Dunn that snapped his 26 shut out innings streak. He would’ve received the win if not for a bullpen meltdown. Considering his ERA, record (can’t believe it is still used as a factor), and uber prospect status, I think he has to be a front runner for ROY.
Atlanta Braves’ Tommy Hanson by the end of the year will have the best stats.. Mid 90s Fastball and a Curve that falls off a table. This kid will be a stud!