Stock Watch: 6/29

Stock Up

Jason Hammel, Rockies

Out of options this past spring, Hammel was shipped from the Rays to the Rockies for minor league righty Aneury Rodriguez. While the 21 year-old Dominican is struggling with his control in Double-A (4.99 BB/9), Hammel has posted an impressive 3.73 FIP in 72.2 innings.

The 26 year-old Hammel has punched out 6.32 hitters per nine innings, while issuing 2.35 BB/9. That’s a marked improvement over his work with the Rays from 2006-2008, when he walked in excess of four per nine frames each season. Hammel’s fastball (-1.41 runs/100 pitches) and changeup (-2.8) are getting hit hard, but his mid-80’s slider (+1.33) and mid-70’s curve (+3.34) are getting the job done. Colorado’s starters rank 7th in the majors in team FIP. Who knew?

Seth Smith, Rockies

Dave Cameron’s Seth Smith Liberation Party scored a major victory recently, as new Rockies skipper Jim Tracy said that the 26 year-old lefty hitter will receive more playing time. Smith owns a .391 wOBA in 290 career plate appearances in the big leagues, while showing excellent plate discipline (14.9 BB%, 21.3 Outside-Swing%). That level of performance is unlikely to persist, but ZIPS sees Smith swatting a highly-useful .296/.371/.487 during the rest of the season.

B.J. Upton, Rays

Following offseason shoulder surgery and a short DL stint, Upton got off to an inauspicious start (.177/.320/.226 in April, .218/.285/.323 in May). Perhaps the 24 year-old is now fully recovered from going under the knife, as he holds a .333/.400/.556 line in June (4 HR). Has Upton recovered his bat speed? His numbers against fastballs certainly suggest that’s the case:

April: -1.85 Runs/100
May: -0.97 Runs/100
June: +2.76 Runs/100

To boot, B.J. is on pace to far surpass his stolen base total last season (44), with 28 swipes in 35 attempts. This is the player whom I likened to a young Carlos Beltran this past off-season.

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto’s sock is back. Geovany’s slugging percentages over the first three months: .130 in April, .354 in May and .559 in June. After hitting one dinger during the first two months, Soto has smacked 6 in June. It might take a while for his season numbers to look more in line with pre-season expectations, but Soto is allaying concerns that an early-season shoulder injury would wreck his 2009 campaign.

Randy Johnson, Giants

While Johnson’s 4.68 ERA looks unimpressive, The Big Unit is still pretty darned nasty. He has whiffed 8.17 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.94. Johnson has given up his fair share of homers over the past few seasons, but his 17.1 HR/FB rate well above his 10.8% mark in 2007. R.J.’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate) is 3.57 in 2009. That ranks 7th in the N.L. Don’t be surprised if that ERA continues to dip.

Stock Down

Adrian Beltre, Mariners

While he’s backing M’s pitchers with his customary stellar D (+16.7 UZR/150) and is beginning to hit the ball with more authority (.319/.347/.468 in June), Beltre will unfortunately have to undergo surgery to remove bone chips from his right shoulder. He could be out up to two months.

The 30 year-old will be an interesting free agent this winter. Though some seem to view Beltre’s deal with the Mariners as a mistake, Beltre was valued almost perfectly by Seattle. Inked to a 5-year, $64M deal prior to the 2005 season, Beltre has provided a total of 15.5 Wins Above Replacement. That has been worth $62.4M.

Prior to this year’s injury-plagued work at the plate, the righty hitter posted an average of 8.2 park-adjusted Batting Runs from 2006-2008. He’s a good hitter masked by Safeco, a wonderful fielder and one of the least appreciated performers in the game.

Mike Jacobs, Royals

Jacobs has done a better job of working the count this season (9.7 BB%, 7.9% career average), but he’s largely been the same contact-challenged (31.3 K%) platoon hitter who’s helpless versus lefties (.205/.284/.301). The arbitration-eligible Jacobs (making $3.25M this year) has provided -0.1 WAR for K.C. In other news, Kila Kaaihue
is hitting .273/.412/.508 at AAA Omaha, drawing a walk 19.6% of the time.

Shairon Martis, Nationals

Martis is another example of why Win-Loss records for starters just don’t mean very much. The 22 year-old Dutchman holds a 5-3 mark, but he just isn’t getting the job done at the major league level. Martis’ FIP is a grisly 5.43, as he has walked more hitters (4.10 BB/9) than he has struck out (3.57 K/9). Perhaps realizing that he could use more seasoning while simultaneously limiting his innings, the Nationals optioned Martis to AAA Syracuse.

Andy Sonnanstine, Rays

Sonnanstine has been scorched to the tune of a 5.10 FIP, as he has surrendered 1.65 HR/9. His XFIP is a less-ugly 4.62, but the Kent State control artist hasn’t been as sharp this season. Sonny’s K/BB ratio was 3.35 in ’08, but that dipped to 2.27 in 2009 as his K rate fell slightly (5.77 to 5.51) and his rate of free passes dished out rose from 1.72 to 2.42. Sonnanstine’s five-pitch mix led to a 64 First-Pitch Strike% in 2008 (9th-best among starters), but that figure has tumbled to a league-average 58% this year. The 26 year-old was optioned to AAA Durham to make way for Scott Kazmir.

Hank Blalock, Rangers

When is a projected 36-homer season not all that valuable? When it comes with a 5.3% walk rate and a .284 OBP. Hank is hammerin’ the ball (.266 ISO), but the all-or-nothing approach has led to a wOBA (.332) slightly below the league average. Counter intuitively, Blalock has become more of a free-swinger as the years have gone by. He drew a free pass 9.2% of the time in 2007 and 6.9% in 2008, before this year’s new low point.