• Shane Greene came on to start the ninth inning tonight in a 0-0 game and unfortunately was unable to finish the inning after allowing a lead off walk to Denard Span, a homer to C.J. Cron and a solo shot to Brad Miller. Buck Farmer relieved Greene in the ninth but Joe Jimenez and Alex Wilson both figure to be in line for saves if a change occurs in Detroit. After tonight’s outing, Green is supporting a 5.73 ERA and matching 6.00 FIP. He won’t carry a 20.0% HR/FB all season and a 65.2 LOB% either but his .310 BABIP doesn’t portray someone who’s been getting killed by luck, although his sequencing certainly has left a lot to be desired. We had Greene safe before tonight’s blow up so I won’t sound the alarms but it’s hard to carry an ERA touching 6 and feel comfortable. As mentioned, Joe Jimenez would be next in line. His strikeout rate could be on the up and up with a 11.7 SwStr% but only a 18% K% but overall he’s not quite as dominant as you might like to see with someone next in line.

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Caleb Smith

If I didn’t give Smith a Quick Look, I feel I was failing. I watched the 26-year-old lefty’s game from the 22nd (good camera angle) when he went 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K’s, and 0 walks.

• Fastball: 91-94 mph. Kept it down and commanded it well. Hitter just couldn’t get a read on this pitch but I couldn’t tell exactly why. Some hitters are seeing it well since it has given up all his home runs.
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Last week, I reintroduced my Small Sample Normalization Services (SSNS), analyzing strong starts by Dylan Bundy, Jose Berrios, and Patrick Corbin in the context of other small samples within their respective careers or recent histories. This time, I discuss three more odd starts among starting pitchers and their implications.

Chase Anderson, MIL SP

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It’s always interesting to look back at lopsided trades like the one that sent Teoscar Hernandez to Toronto, especially because the team that gave him up was the Houston Astros, a franchise that the vast majority of knowledgeable fans would agree tends to make many more smart decisions than dumb ones. With that in mind, I think what was amazing about the Teoscar deal is just how down the Astros were on the talented young outfielder.

On July 31, 2017, the Astros traded Teoscar and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays. The return? Francisco Liriano, who brought with him a truly shameful 5.88 ERA, which was largely fueled by his 4.68 BB/9. Even at the time, it seemed pretty clear that the Astros knew Liriano was washed up, as the club converted him to a glorified LOOGY. Liriano pitched a grand total of 16.2 IP with the Astros — 14.1 IP in the regular season, 2.1 IP in the playoffs — over the course of 25 appearances.

Of course, this post is not about Liriano, but it’s important to contextualize how little the Astros valued Teoscar that they were willing to part with him (and Aoki) for 16.2 IP of replacement-level relief pitching. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Derek Fisher, and Jake Marisnick hanging around the major-league club — and stud prospect Kyle Tucker climbing through the minors — it’s certainly true that the Astros were dealing from depth. Still, the Jays did one hell of a job landing Teoscar in exchange for a 34-year-old pitcher fighting to keep his ERA under 6.00.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we look at a sleeper prospect behind the plate for the Cubs, a first baseman that could impact the playoff race for the Mets, an outfielder that could help fill in the gaping hole in left field for the Astros, and another intriguing arm in the Rays system.

Miguel Amaya, C, Cubs: If you like deep, deep sleepers then keep an eye on Amaya, who could be developing into an intriguing offensive-minded catcher if the early season returns are a sign of things to come. Signed back in 2015 for $1.25 million, the 19-year-old athlete was assigned to full-season ball in just his second season in North America. Amaya is hitting .279 and showing excellent power. Nine of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases (including three home runs). Perhaps more impressively, he’s shown a good eye and has eight walks to go with 13 strikeouts. Defensively, he’s caught just two of 21 runners attempting to steal and he has a lot of work to do behind the plate. It will be interesting to see how the young backstop holds up to the rigors of a full season of catching, although the club has also been giving him some time at first base.

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Last Friday, I announced our new no rake GPP with FantasyDraft. To help set the appropriately sized contest, we’re doing freerolls this week Monday through Thursday. Signing up for the free roll can help us to get bigger guarantees in the future.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. DFS First Take
3. Weather Reports
4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
5. SaberSim Says…
6. Fluky Catch

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Bullpen Report – March, 30th 2018

With only eight wins on the season, the Orioles closer job has been pretty tough to speculate on so far this season. However, manager Buck Showalter did fantasy owners a big favor Sunday night by laying his cards on the table in their 5-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers.

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With about a month of the season in the bag, it’s finally time to analyze my newest version of xHR/FB rate unveiled last year. This is the best method publicly available for calculating an expected HR/FB rate, so ignore any analysis solely revolving around Brls/BBE or exit velocity. So let’s find out which hitters have posted xHR/FB rate marks at least 10% above their actual marks. These hitters are due for imminent improvement.

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How my work week is going with my vacation approaching:

Give @raysbaseball some love, they’ve won EIGHT in a row.

A friendly bounce here and there always helps. #Statcast pic.twitter.com/87HnNO6txv

— MLB (@MLB) April 29, 2018

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4/29/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @pitcherlist – Nick Pollack, Special Guest

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

• Paul and Nick deep dive on Luis Castillo in light of his poor April and disastrous start on Friday.

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