Is Teoscar Hernandez Really This Good?

It’s always interesting to look back at lopsided trades like the one that sent Teoscar Hernandez to Toronto, especially because the team that gave him up was the Houston Astros, a franchise that the vast majority of knowledgeable fans would agree tends to make many more smart decisions than dumb ones. With that in mind, I think what was amazing about the Teoscar deal is just how down the Astros were on the talented young outfielder.

On July 31, 2017, the Astros traded Teoscar and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays. The return? Francisco Liriano, who brought with him a truly shameful 5.88 ERA, which was largely fueled by his 4.68 BB/9. Even at the time, it seemed pretty clear that the Astros knew Liriano was washed up, as the club converted him to a glorified LOOGY. Liriano pitched a grand total of 16.2 IP with the Astros — 14.1 IP in the regular season, 2.1 IP in the playoffs — over the course of 25 appearances.

Of course, this post is not about Liriano, but it’s important to contextualize how little the Astros valued Teoscar that they were willing to part with him (and Aoki) for 16.2 IP of replacement-level relief pitching. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Derek Fisher, and Jake Marisnick hanging around the major-league club — and stud prospect Kyle Tucker climbing through the minors — it’s certainly true that the Astros were dealing from depth. Still, the Jays did one hell of a job landing Teoscar in exchange for a 34-year-old pitcher fighting to keep his ERA under 6.00.

If I’ve been hesitant to buy into Teoscar, that was the primary reason. “If he was actually good, there’s no way Houston would’ve traded him for a Liriano rental,” said the voice in my head, and who am I to argue with that logic. Yet, a month into the 2018 season, Teoscar is taking the majors by storm. For fantasy purposes, he’s been one of the hottest waiver pickups of the young season.

For their part, it’s not like the Jays instantly fell in love with their new acquisition either. Teoscar impressed in his September call-up last year, hitting .261/.305/.602 with eight homers in 95 plate appearances, yet Toronto still went out and beefed up their outfield depth by adding Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk in the offseason. That effectively squeezed Teoscar out of a job and sent him back to Triple-A. Even though it didn’t take him long to find his way to the majors in 2018 — he was recalled when Josh Donaldson hit the DL on April 13 — it’s still noteworthy that this wasn’t the original plan.

But that’s enough about how we got here. Let’s discuss what Teoscar is doing with the opportunity, starting with a simple look at his major-league numbers over the course of his three partial seasons.

• 2016 (112 PA): .230/.304/.420, .190 ISO, 9.8% BB, 25.0% K
• 2017 (95 PA): .261/.305/.602, .341 ISO, 6.3% BB, 37.9% K
• 2018 (64 PA): .316/.391/.702, .386 ISO, 10.9% BB, 23.4% K

My goodness, what’s not to like about this? Obviously, these are all somewhat small samples, but it still means something when literally everything is significantly better than it was in his first two stints in the majors. It’s mighty impressive how he’s maintained and even increased his power production, while also making massive strides in the plate discipline department. It would be great to determine how sustainable these improvements are, so let’s try to find an answer.

Unfortunately, it does look like the improvements in his K-rate — and probably his AVG too — are somewhat small-sample mirages. Teoscar currently has a 16.0% swinging strike rate, which is tied with Joey Gallo and Matt Olson for the 9th-highest whiff rate in the majors this season. That’s a tiny improvement from last year’s 16.6% SwStr, but I’ll just say that guys with a 16% whiff rate don’t typically hit .316, or anywhere near .316 for that matter. Something’s got to give here.

When it comes to his power production, well that’s a different (and more optimistic) story. As Josh Shepardson pointed out in his Statcast column last week, Teoscar is a Statcast darling so far this season. As of this writing, Teoscar’s 96.7 mph average exit velocity is the seventh-best rate in the majors, and there’s plenty to like in his batted-ball data too, like his 26.2% line-drive rate and 52.4% hard-hit rate. For those of you looking for a nice visual of his power, I’d like to direct your attention to this unreal homer to center, this pulled no-doubter, this oppo bomb from yesterday, etc.

The wild card for his fantasy value is whether or not he can translate his plus speed into stolen-base production. So far in the majors, that has not happened, as the one bag he’s swiped so far this season is his only steal in 271 career major-league plate appearances. Still, considering he stole 169 bases in 3,078 PA in the minors with a solid 75.4% success rate, it certainly wouldn’t be shocking if he managed to chip in 10+ steals over the course of the season.

Once his strikeout rate climbs a bit, and his .368 BABIP decreases, Teoscar realistically levels out as a .250-.260 hitter when it comes to batting average. On the other hand, he’s shown a lot of in-game power at the major-league level — probably moreso than scouts ever expected of him — and it’s not like he’s getting lucky with cheap homers that sneak over the fence down the line.

Even if he doesn’t produce much in the way of stolen bases, Teoscar’s power should keep him relevant for fantasy purposes — as will the fact that he’s the No. 2 hitter in a decent lineup that plays in a hitters’ park. Hitting second for the Jays is already paying big dividends for him, as he’s picked up 12 runs and 11 RBI in his 14 games.

The batting average is the only part of his game that I think is a bit of a mirage. As long as you don’t expect him to hit .300+ all year, I think he’s a relatively safe bet for production, which is a serious compliment when you’re discussing a relatively unheralded 25-year-old prospect.

Of course, there’s always a chance the wheels fall off and he ends up whiffing his way out of a job, proving the Astros right about him in the process. I just don’t see that happening though. There is almost certainly some regression coming, but he should remain a valuable mixed-league fantasy asset even if/when that regression arrives. Also, he still has some untapped upside in the form of stolen bases, so his ceiling might be even higher than his excellent current production. I’m buying in.