Quick Looks: Smith & Kingham

Caleb Smith

If I didn’t give Smith a Quick Look, I feel I was failing. I watched the 26-year-old lefty’s game from the 22nd (good camera angle) when he went 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K’s, and 0 walks.

• Fastball: 91-94 mph. Kept it down and commanded it well. Hitter just couldn’t get a read on this pitch but I couldn’t tell exactly why. Some hitters are seeing it well since it has given up all his home runs.

• Change: At 83 mph and straight. Its deception was based on a speed difference. It’s been effective so far with a 21% SwStr% but I could see it get worse if hitters can sit on it.

• Slider: 79-82 mph. Just nasty with a 20% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%). It broke hard-and-down to his glove side and will give lefties nightmares. He was not afraid to backdoor it to righies.

• He throws straight to home with no weird arm angles. I suspect he’ll have less of a split because of the traditional windup.

Conclusion: Smith has some good pieces but I’m not sure how they fit together. In the game I watched, his control was spot on but he has a 5.0 BB/9 on the season. I wonder if his control comes and goes.

Smith’s profile reminds me of Chris Sale with an effective and commandable 4-seamer, great slider, and a token changeup. It’s tough to find a lefty with his pitch mix and command.

For a value going forward. He’s at 24% Fantrax ownership but I think it should be around the 86% level (75th starting pitcher) with other effective unknowns like Jakob Junis, and Miles Mikolas. I would not have an issue if an owner valued him around 50 overall with the likes of Rich Hill and Luis Castillo.

Nick Kingham

I watched the righty’s major league debut from yesterday when he dominated the Cardinals.

• Four-Seam Fastball: 90-94 mph and straight. He commanded the pitch well but it was dominating in any other way.

• Slider: 84-86 mph and loopy with a downward break. I see it more as a slurve. Hitters weren’t able to get a read on this pitch and took a ton of half and full swings at it (34% SwStr%). A possible new reason for its effectiveness is that it is a new pitch for him this year and the Cardinals may be working off old scouting reports.

• Sinker: 92-93 mph with some sink and glove side run. Nothing special

• Curveball: An 80-83 mph pitch with a nice 12-6 break. This pitch used to be his best non-fastball and could work as a nice third pitch.

• Changeup: 85-86 mph. This pitch had almost no movement and was below average.

• Kingham had some batted ball luck with a couple of balls to the warning track which might have gone for extra bases when the temperature rises. Also, the strike zone expanded a bit in the later innings as the perfect game was still intact.

• His fastball velocity noticeably dropped during the game from around 94 mph in the first inning to 91 mph in the final inning.

Conclusion: His slider is a game changer to go with his above-average command. I don’t know how he was getting players out without it.

I’m not sure where I’d value him on just this start but I think he is a must own in every league as he reveals his true talent level. I could see him be a 9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 which puts him in the Tyler Skaggs and Tyson Ross level of pitcher. Buy now or the chance to own his, if it evenexists, will pass.