Nearly a year ago, I introduced the newest version of my xHR/FB rate, this time using the new Statcast metric, Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE). Along with Brls/BBE, I included two additional components — pulled and opposite field fly ball percentage, which I just lumped together for the second factor in the equation (oh, and also a park factor adjustment).
Well, I used to be able to create starting pitcher disabled list (DL) projections with the average chance hovering around 40%. Until this past season when DL estimate was off by 18%.
| Season | Predicted | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 43% | 45% | 2% |
| 2013 | 40% | 41% | 1% |
| 2014 | 43% | 43% | 1% |
| 2015 | 42% | 44% | 3% |
| 2016 | 42% | 47% | 6% |
| 2017 | 41% | 60% | 18% |
Even though the rates have climbed the past couple of seasons, it was nothing like the jump this past season and I 100% blame the 10-day DL. All my work to this point is moot.
Draft season has become a year-round endeavor for fantasy baseballers if so inclined. Usually the winter dotted with industry-based mocks that will appear in the magazines set to hit the shelves soon, but nowadays both NFBC and Fantrax get live leagues going so quickly that there’s barely any down time. I’ve done or am in the middle of a couple leagues of my own while also participating in a host of mocks and I’m noticing some early trends.
Trea Turner is a Top Fiver
When Sammy Reid and Doug Thorburn took Turner 4th overall in my AFL draft, I didn’t bat an eye and tipped my hat at their commitment to the 25-year old fantasy beast. I did think it’d be on the higher end of his upper range as I saw him settling in the back half of 15-team first rounders. Alas, they nailed it dead on as his current average draft position (ADP) is 4th overall. He’s even gone as high as 2nd overall, presumably behind Mike Trout.
As somewhat of an ode to the will-be-missed Mr. Swydan, I want take a page out of Paul’s book to highlight a number of players I’m excited to watch in 2018 (this is part one).
Having fun with some random comparisons, Justin Smoak finished a terrific 2017 with a career-high .371 wOBA (.270/.355/.529). Freddie Freeman also finished the summer with a .371 wOBA (.291/.378/.513)…after spending six weeks on the DL with a broken wrist. Before that DL stint, Freeman was arguably the best hitter in baseball, slashing .341/.461/.748 (.485 wOBA) over the first six weeks of the season. He was essentially unstoppable during that stretch, and at the age of 28, armed with one of the most consistent batted ball profiles in the game and a full season of health (plus 3B eligibility in some leagues), Freeman has all the ingredients for a truly special season in 2018.
With three seasons in the Statcast Leaderboard books, it’s time to dive in to its short digital history. While the various metrics published on the site are sure to provide a better understanding of what drives a handful of statistics, I’m most interested in what fuels home runs. The leaderboard shares a number of interesting metrics, several of which would intuitively correlate with HR/FB rates. Given the leaguewide home run surge — for the second straight year, HR/FB rate hit a new high since 2002, the first season FanGraphs has batted ball data — we might find some answers on the virtual pages of Statcast’s records.
Quite a bit has been written about batted ball data the past few seasons since the information has become publicly available. Fantasy owners have taken notice and are trying to find that next hitter who is raising his launch angle to be part of the “Flyball Revolution”. One major issue which is not being publicly discussed is the major effects backspin has on the ball. By knowing a hit’s spin rate, some of the anomalies seen between launch angle and exit velocity can be explained. The spin rate is a major batted ball component but is generally an unknown factor.
The importance of batted ball spin comes down to this simple table and explanation by Dr. Alan Nathan in a piece he wrote at the Hardball Times.
Finally, I want to take advantage of the fact that we have an aerodynamic model that accounts for most of the features of the data to investigate how flyball distance depends on the amount of backspin, here for a fixed exit speed of 103 mph and launch angle of 27 degrees. The results are given in the table below. They show that distance increases rapidly as the backspin increases from zero but eventually saturates, with very little gain in distance for spin rates exceeding about 1,500 rpm. The reason for the saturation is partly because air drag increases with increasing spin, essentially canceling the increase in lift.
Same launch angle. Same exit velocity. And the ball travels an additional 64 feet of distance because of backspin. Simply, how is a factor which can add an additional 60+ feet in travel distance not be part of our analysis?
Paul and I teamed up for our first co-chat. It was a blast. Here is the transcript.
| 1:53 |
: Hey folks, we’re going to get started here in a few minutes. Paul and I are trying a little something different – I think it’s been a very long time since RotoGraphs had a two person chat |
| 1:54 |
: Just to set some expectations and ground rules, we’re planning on having more back and forth discussion rather than rapid firing through everyone’s questions. Sadly, if you need our help on deciding your 11th keeper, this may not be the chat for you! |
| 1:55 |
: Disclaimer aside, I think this is going to be a lot of fun! We’ll begin once Paul checks in. |
| 1:55 |
: Who is winning?
Brad (6.3% | 6 votes)
Paul (15.9% | 15 votes)
Bartolo (77.6% | 73 votes)
Total Votes: 94
|
| 1:55 |
: Always Bartolo |
| 1:55 |
: No contest, right? |
The impetus for this post arises from a Tweet by our very own Al Melchior:
Holy BABIP, Willie Calhoun pops out a lot! pic.twitter.com/BDyHtfJsZJ
— Al Melchior (@almelchiorBB) January 3, 2018
This is, in no way, meant to shame Melchior; if anything, he has afforded us a valuable learning opportunity, especially because it became clear to me there likely exists a large swath of FanGraphs users who routinely misinterpret the relatively new Minor League batted ball data. (Through no fault of their own, by the way. The new data didn’t come with a user’s guide or anything. We have been left to our own devices, and it’s easy to assume such clean data comes without warts.)
It’s time to unveil the list of 10 fantasy relevant hitters whose 2017 xHR/FB rates most exceeded their actual HR/FB rate marks. I use my Statcast-fueled xHR/FB rate equation to determine which hitters could enjoy a spike in HR/FB rate in 2018. Of course, this all assumes the hitter posts similar marks in the components of the xHR/FB rate metric — Brls/BBE, along with fly ball pull and opposite field percentages. All xHR/FB rates are the park-adjusted versions.
This list isn’t necessarily a sleeper list, unless your leaguemates are expecting a 2018 HR/FB rate like 2017 for the player. Rather, it’s simply a list of hitters with a better than average chance of enjoying an increase in HR/FB rate.
While I normally examine pitchers in-season, a couple of late-season call-ups I missed deserved some analysis.
Note: All breaks are from the pitcher’s perspective.
The 21-year-old lefty got my attention by showing up as the 38th ranked starting pitcher by our auction calculator. If I’m going to take a guy to be my #3 or #4 starter, I should know a bit about him. Here is my take on his last start of the 2017 season against the Marlins.
• He throws straight to home with no funky angles from a ¾ arm slot and doesn’t fall off the mound after his windup. He shows a little more effort from the stretch. With his simple delivery, he’ll not have as much of a platoon split.