Early Draft Thoughts: Turner, Young 1B, The Glob™
Draft season has become a year-round endeavor for fantasy baseballers if so inclined. Usually the winter dotted with industry-based mocks that will appear in the magazines set to hit the shelves soon, but nowadays both NFBC and Fantrax get live leagues going so quickly that there’s barely any down time. I’ve done or am in the middle of a couple leagues of my own while also participating in a host of mocks and I’m noticing some early trends.
Trea Turner is a Top Fiver
When Sammy Reid and Doug Thorburn took Turner 4th overall in my AFL draft, I didn’t bat an eye and tipped my hat at their commitment to the 25-year old fantasy beast. I did think it’d be on the higher end of his upper range as I saw him settling in the back half of 15-team first rounders. Alas, they nailed it dead on as his current average draft position (ADP) is 4th overall. He’s even gone as high as 2nd overall, presumably behind Mike Trout.
While Turner didn’t maintain his ridiculous 2016 level, he was still pacing for essentially a 20 HR/75 SB season had he played a full season instead of his 98 games (11 HR/46 SB). He isn’t just a supercharged Billy Hamilton, he is substantially better in every facet of the game. Per 550 PA, Turner has been 18 runs better, 11 homers, 22 RBI, and six stolen bases better than Hamilton, not to mention the colossal batting average advantage.
Young First Basemen Are Surging
Last year, first base felt paper-thin during the draft season before a surge of mid-career breakouts that ended up making it a deep position. However, no one is buying Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Smoak, Mark Reynolds, Yonder Alonso, and the others as foundational 1B, but instead turning to young bats to handle the position. Cody Bellinger (26th overall), Rhys Hoskins (54th), Matt Olson (112th), and Joey Gallo (113th) are being entrusted with starting 1B roles across many leagues.
None of those guys played 150 games last year and two of them (Hoskins and Olson) didn’t even eclipse 60, but they all raked. If you pace out Hoskins and Olson their numbers are insane, but that’s worthless because I just can’t see them holding 32% and 41% HR/FB rates, respectively. I think you can safely project a .255/35 HR season for both which makes them fair game as starting 1B. I’m still a little torn on Hoskins going that high, but he has brilliant plate skills (22% K, 18% BB in MLB; 19% K, 13% BB in MiLB 2016-17) and unquestioned power in a hitter-friendly park. In the end, I think it’s a viable risk.
Reliable Starting Pitching Dries Up
The Glob™ is here and ready to terrorize you in the middle rounds of drafts. Where The Glob™ starts is up for debate, but it’s generally agreed that we enter it around SP25-30 and it spans the next 40-50 pitchers with the talent level really not differing all that much given the volume of players involved. Part of it is the lack of reliable innings counts these pitchers are slated for brings them all closer together in a projection. In the season, a substantial portion of The Glob™ will far exceed their innings projection and be the breakouts of the season, but going into the draft it’s less clear than ever who those guys will be in the coming year. I have Chase Anderson and Zack Godley up at the top of The Glob™, but I can’t vehemently argue that Rick Porcello and Aaron Sanchez are firmly behind them. That’d be based entirely on 2017 and both overrate the Anderson/Godley duo while underrating Porcello/Sanchez.
Drew Pomeranz vs. Patrick Corbin. I have those two 33 spots apart, but they were damn near dead even last year. In 2017 drafts, there was an embryonic glob, but that same 33-spot difference between Pomy and Corbin was James Paxton v. Francisco Liriano. Even before the benefit of hindsight, that felt much more severe (and I had some hope for Liriano to bounce back, but still saw clear delineation). You’re going to have your favorites emerge from The Glob™, but you will routinely be in the middle of a draft and about to take Jameson Taillon only to pause and wonder if he’s really much better than Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Taijuan Walker, or even Tanner Roark, all of whom are available later… some coming much later.
The Glob™ is seductive, but repulsive. Plentiful, but barren. The Glob™ can mess with your mind if you dive in unprepared. Study the pitcher pool (don’t worry, I’ll have tons more articles on the SP market this winter) and enter a draft with some personal preferences in The Glob™ lest you could be paralyzed by choice and wind up botching your whole pitching plan.
Closer is Weird
It’s bad enough if you get stuck on a bad trip with The Glob™, but then you also have to navigate the minefield that is relievers right now. The whole damn position is glob (Positional Glob… patent pending), especially if you have any concerns about postseason workload effects on Kenley Jansen. The #6 RP, Ken Giles, loses his job every nine minutes. Sometimes he just loses the closer’s role over the winter for no reason. A.J. Hinch just calls and he’s like “ya we’re going with Verlander in the ninth throughout December” and Giles just accepts it. That’s the guy we’re taking sixth among closers.
There are some mid-round targets I do like in the closer’s pool like Felipe Rivero, Raisel Iglesias, Sean Doolittle, and Archie Bradley, but the latter two aren’t even guaranteed to have the role as the Nats could still add someone and Bradley has Brad Boxberger in for competition and might be best used as a 2-inning guy for the D’Backs. Wade Davis heads out to Colorado, Greg Holland doesn’t have a team, Alex Colome is in trade rumors, and Kelvin Herrera lost the job for a spell and didn’t really impress last year.
Is Jeurys Familia definitely the guy in New York with A.J. Ramos there? Will Brad Brach take over for Zach Britton and can he hold the job even as Britton gets healthy? There just isn’t a ton of confidence at this position once you get beyond Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. I love what Corey Knebel did, but he’s been the guy for a year and walked nearly five batters per nine. We saw some flaws in Aroldis Chapman, who has now topped 60 innings just once in the last four years. We’ll get some stability as camps start and teams sort out their pens, but I think this will still be an especially volatile RP market even in March.
fantasy baseball is hard
I may just have to name my Scoresheet team The Globtrotters
I doubt Archie closes in AZ. Skills-wise he should, but since he’ll be arbitration eligible soon I think AZ will want to penny-pinch and keep Bradley in the Andrew Miller fireman role since arbitration doesn’t value RP’s outside of Saves (hello Delin Bentances). The fact that the Zack Greinke rumor was out there and they signed 2 high leverage relievers would seem to indicate to me that the D Backs plan on rolling with Bradley as a super reliever
Could totally see it and think it’s the right move, tbh. It’s tough when the analytical side doesn’t line up at all with the fantasy side. As a baseball fan, I praise the return of the fireman 2-4 IP reliever, but it’ll wreak on the increasingly volatile saves market.
What’s the glob?
You read the piece, right?
Thanks Paul – this is a great primer on current ADP activity!
I look forward to more pitching content and agree one needs to have conviction for ‘your guys’ (picking your favorites in the Glob range), then let the rest slot in when you need one.
The Giles bits are sweet, sweet comedy.
And I think Rivero is in the elite tier now, right? …though you still may be able to get him in the mid-rounds apparently?
So one thing on Trea – he’s leading off, right? I have no reason to believe he won’t, but for whatever reason Fangraphs has him projected to hit 7th (based on the PA/G and R vs. RBI). Him going top-5 totally relies upon those extra PA’s and R’s he’ll get hitting out of the #1 spot.
Ya, I’m definitely operating with him at the top of the lineup. I show depth charts giving him 616 PA, tied for most on the club, so that looks like the right volume. But ya I totally agree that it’s a key part of his upside.
Huh I hadn’t noticed that, and now I only have more questions..! Apologies in advance if I’m getting into the weeds here:
It looks like what the Depth Charts projection does is take the Steamer projection and just scale the PA up or down based on whatever playing time estimate you guys make for the team depth charts. Normally not a big deal, but for a guy like Trea, Steamer has him for 563 PA and a lot fewer R+RBI per PA than you would expect for a leadoff guy with his speed (a difference of maybe 25 R+RBI combined – pretty big). Scaling it up to 616 PA doesn’t fully give credit for the boost he’s going to get from being a leadoff hitter.
The other thing – it looks like the PA/G are constant regardless of lineup position for Depth Charts? Steamer definitely has varying PA/G. Every player projected for 147G on Depth Charts is projected for exactly 616 PA… As you said, Rendon, Harper, Trea all projected for 147G, 616 PA. Kinda weird, no? http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=3%2cd
I think both of these things could make pretty huge swings in fantasy valuations, especially if people are using the auction calculator, yeah?
Dave Martinez has already openly said Turner will hit 2nd.
I don’t think that’s a foregone conclusion, as they also like the idea of Eaton there… though that would mean Turner would be 2nd.
Paul, I have a small request, but it bugs me nonetheless. Will you please consider modifying your frequent use of “ya” to the appropriate “yeah”? I wouldn’t mind seeing “ya” as a modified use of “you” in phrases like “See ya on next week’s chat” or “Ya don’t say”, but the way you often use it to replace “yeah” merits attention. So please try it, ya might like it!
Just curious: what’s your opposite of “yeah”? Is it “naw”? Is it “nope”? Is it “no way”?
Well, whatever it is, that’s really the only appropriate reply here.
Not sure why the down votes, it is reasonable to hold the opinion that saying “ya” over and over in a chat is a little grating. Totally get being fine with it, too, but I had the same feeling and don’t think making the suggestion is out of line.
It’s grating in a chat? I’m surprised to hear it’s such a distraction in that informal setting.
I know sometimes I bring that informal style to these pieces with jokes and stuff which itself may be grating to some, but I wouldn’t think the delineation between ya and yeah would be grating factor. I’d have assumed my bad jokes would be the bigger issue.
it’s not.
Reasonable people don’t think they’re entitled to tell someone else to change their phrasing just because it bugs them.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But having the expectation that the world should adjust to you, over such a minor thing, is unreasonable.
1B seemed unusually shallow going into last year. How quickly that changed.
Where are you seeing Godley go in drafts? He is by far my favorite middle tier SP pick.
Every year, I enter the glob, and every year I tell the world to piss off and just take the big velo and the dirty dirty. If you can’t guarantee greatness, you might as well make it fun to watch.
To be fair, last year did result in Severino, Ray, Paxton, and Jimmy Nelson because, why the hell not.