Brad Johnson and Paul Sporer Baseball Chat 1/9/18

1:53	Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’re going to get started here in a few minutes. Paul and I are trying a little something different – I think it’s been a very long time since RotoGraphs had a two person chat

1:54	Brad Johnson: Just to set some expectations and ground rules, we’re planning on having more back and forth discussion rather than rapid firing through everyone’s questions. Sadly, if you need our help on deciding your 11th keeper, this may not be the chat for you!

1:55	Brad Johnson: Disclaimer aside, I think this is going to be a lot of fun! We’ll begin once Paul checks in.

1:55	Brad Johnson: Who is winning? Brad (6.3% \| 6 votes) Paul (15.9% \| 15 votes) Bartolo (77.6% \| 73 votes) Total Votes: 94

1:55	BK: Always Bartolo

1:55	Brad Johnson: No contest, right?

2:00	Brad Johnson: ok, well I’m going to twiddle my thumbs with some easy ones while we wait

2:00	Jimmy Ballgame: Is Delino Deshields worth keeping in dynasty league?

2:00	Tommy: Do you see DeShields starting this year…or do the Rangers make him a 4th OF? What’s his ceiling?

2:01	Brad Johnson: As far as I’m aware, he’s the only true CF on that roster.

2:02	Brad Johnson: Could they sign a Lorenzo Cain or lesser option? I suppose

2:02	Brad Johnson: I think they’ll give him an extended look to decide his future role with the club

2:03	Brad Johnson: Absolutely keeping him in any reasonably deep dynasty – his stolen bases alone justify the price. He also has just enough power and bat to not ruin any categories (except RBI).

2:04	MIggy Dust: Matt Chapman and Jorge Polanco, the better guy to hold in a keep forever league? (Roto 5×5 OBP).

2:05	Brad Johnson: I’d take Chapman. His defense alone seems to ensure a very long look at 3B. Plenty of positive indicators at the plate too. I like Polanco too, but he’s much closer to a super utility platoony role.

2:06	Josh: Speaking of the TEX OF, let’s talk Willie Calhoun. He seems to have all the makings of a middle-of-the-order power corner OF, yes?

2:07	Brad Johnson: The ingredients are there. Baseball twitter has been talking about his sky high IFFB rates today.

2:07	Brad Johnson: Hoskins also had a IFFB issue in the minors, part of that is simply how they code outcomes.

2:07	Brad Johnson: It does look like he’ll give away more outs than a typical hitter

2:10	Paul Sporer: Helllooooo

2:10	Brad Johnson: By the way, you guys are cold, 5 votes for paul showing up 10 minutes late!

2:11	Paul Sporer: Underdog role, I love it

2:11	Brad Johnson: Ok, there’s a question I want to start with, there’s a little backstory so be patient

2:11	Brad Johnson: Paul and I occasionally get into spats over player value, one of those guys last season was Tommy Pham. I said he was a streamer, Paul said gogogogogo

2:12	Brad: Tommy Pham! Please discuss.

2:12	Brad Johnson: Paul was right

2:12	Paul Sporer: screenshot that!!

2:12	Brad Johnson: Part of that has to do with some of the things Jeff discussed in this post – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/behavioral-economics-fantasy-basebal…

2:12	Paul Sporer: But the hard part now is going forward with Pham

2:12	Brad Johnson: True. Here’s the weird thing for me

2:13	Brad Johnson: In April, I was one of the first people saying to go get Pham. He was easily streamed in most formats through a chunk of May

2:13	Brad Johnson: and I recommended him almost daily on another site

2:13	Brad Johnson: I find when I’m an early believer in a player, I eventually wind up as one of his biggest doubters

2:14	Brad Johnson: the hype catches up but doesn’t infect me

2:14	Paul Sporer: That’s an interesting phenomenon

2:14	Brad Johnson: you ever notice anything like that Paul?

2:14	Paul Sporer: It’s price-related, of course

2:14	Brad Johnson: right, I’m anchored to getting for free

2:14	Brad Johnson: I had the same issue with Odubel Herrera

2:14	Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, I’m seeing it with Luis Castillo rn. I wasn’t first, but I jumped right on after first seeing him last year and now I’m seeing him in the Top 25 for some

2:14	Brad Johnson: yikes

2:15	Brad Johnson: I can see him reaching that ceiling, but I can’t justify paying for it as a mean/median outcome

2:15	Paul Sporer: I think the SP market has something to do with it, too, bc it gets wide open around that area (25-30) and just becomes a glob from that point to about SP60-70

2:16	Brad Johnson: We need to coin The Glob and work on our SEO

2:16	Paul Sporer: What are your biggest concerns with Pham for ’18? Just the price? Health? Or are skills a concern?

2:16	Brad Johnson: Well, part of the reason I didn’t fully buy was his history

2:17	Brad Johnson: he looked like he had this in the past then went full pumpkin

2:17	Brad Johnson: I kind of assumed pitchers would figure him out again or he’d lose whatever advantage he found

2:17	Paul Sporer: It seems to depend a lot on how well his eye issue is being managed

2:17	Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s fixed

2:17	Brad Johnson: narratives!

2:18	Brad Johnson: Even with some of their trades, the Cardinals also have impressive outfield depth

2:18	Brad Johnson: they show no compunction with demoting cold hitters

2:18	Brad Johnson: there are risks to buying 2017 Pham at full price

2:19	Brad Johnson: Ok, enough Pham? Do you know why this keeps happening?

2:19	Daniel Castro: Paul, can you tell Brad to stop cracking on me? I’m gonna launch some major dingers at Coors this year, and ain’t nobody gonna stop me!

2:20	Paul Sporer: Ya, enough Pham. I think there’s still risk but I think it’s mostly health-related. I buy the skills.

2:20	Paul Sporer: LOL, I don’t see any real pop from Castro

2:21	Brad Johnson: I’ve been getting chat questions and tweets for weeks about him 🙂

2:21	Brad Johnson: Pretty sure it’s actual Daniel Castro

2:21	Paul Sporer: LOL

2:21	Paul Sporer: or Mrs. Castro

2:21	Paul Sporer: where’s he going to play?!

2:21	Brad Johnson: oh I like that option more

2:21	Brad Johnson: Anyway, here are a few right in your wheelhouse…

2:22	Buddy: Going back to Paul’s SP comment about it “globbing” from 30 through 60, does that put an emphasis on drafting elite pitchers early in your drafts? Or do you take your chances throwing darts in the middle rounds?

2:22

WormsleyCommonGang: The league is on a power/offense surge. I’m seeing a trend of people saying “don’t pay for SP” and the like. Is it time to zig when others are zagging and stock up on front-end SP? I can go into 2018 keeping Kershaw, Kluber, Severino, and Carrasco for an average of $25 per player. I’d be stocked in SP and am thinking of going for another Scherzer or MadBum. Hitting seems flush with power and talent that I could get by.

Thoughts?

2:22	Frustrated: Strategy question – how would you attack a pitching staff if your dynasty league overvalues pitching? Homie can’t even get a halfway decent option from rebuilding teams for top prospects like Moncada and E.Jimenez.

2:22	Brad Johnson: They’re all a little different, but touch on some similar themes

2:23	Brad Johnson: I actually reacted to last year’s draft pool by going heavy on aces like Wormsley suggests. Worked out very well. Early on, I’m seeing a sharp spike in their price.

2:24	Paul Sporer: Wow, if those guys aren’t bringing back real arms then you have to build through bounce backs and buy-lows

2:24	Brad Johnson: For dynasty purposes, stick with Moncada and Jimenez. Try to scrounge Mortons and Godleys. You can get pretty far with an elite offense and mid-tier pitching.

2:24	Paul Sporer: ^^

2:24	Paul Sporer: Agreed fully there

2:24	Brad Johnson: Pitchers are the finishing touch in dynasty

2:24	Brad Johnson: they break so often that they make for fickle long term assets

2:25	Brad Johnson: You’ve probably done more mocks and draft prep than me, what are you seeing happen with ace prices?

2:25	Paul Sporer: They’re high for sure

2:26	Paul Sporer: Because there’s an even smaller group of truly reliable aces

2:26	Paul Sporer: A couple in the first round of 15-teamers and then several others throughout rounds 2-5

2:26	Brad Johnson: Is there such a thing as a reliable ace?

2:27	Paul Sporer: It sounds trite, but a pitcher is only reliable until he’s not

2:27	Paul Sporer: And the reliability of the past almost makes him a worse bet to stay reliable

2:28	Brad Johnson: that’s one of the things I struggle with at times, especially when pondering trades in keeper formats

2:28	Paul Sporer: So you look at a Hamels who just had a throng of 200-inning gem seasons and he was seen as super-reliable then just fell apart in 2017 (relative to his previous heights)

2:28	Brad Johnson: volume is an indicator of good health and also a warning sign for future injury

2:28	Paul Sporer: Ya it’s so tough to assess

2:29	Al Gone Quinn: When you say scrounge for Mortons and Godleys, are you inferring to scrounge for this type of pitcher who breaks out in 2018? Because in my league the owners of Morton and Godley value these guys hugely.

2:29	Paul Sporer: Because you never want to be holding the hot potato of a reliable vet who goes wrong

2:29	Brad Johnson: Yes, look for the next breakouts. I try to target high GB rates with middling velocity. If the velo or command takes a step up, you suddenly have something

2:29	Paul Sporer: I imagined Brad was saying get those guys of 2018 (Chads Green and Kuhl for example) bc yes, I’m also finding those two highly valued this year

2:30	Paul Sporer: Ya, don’t run for solid-if-unspectacular velo. I love velo as much as the next guy, but it doesn’t guarantee anything and not having it isn’t an automatic disqualifier

2:31	Brad Johnson: 5 years ago, velocity was something you’d take for granted. Now it seems like a couple dozen guys spike their velo each year

2:31	Brad Johnson: i.e. just because Trevor Williams throws 91 now doesn’t mean he won’t throw 93 next year

2:31	Paul Sporer: Another interesting name I like

2:31	Brad Johnson: Williams, incidentally, is a guy I like – the ballpark doesn’t hurt either

2:32	Brad Johnson: Paul and I did a mock draft recently, turns out we like very similar things

2:32	Paul Sporer: Ya turning over rocks this fall, I often start in the best parks so PNC essentially pointed me toward Williams & Kuhl

2:32	Paul Sporer: lol sniping each other left n right

2:33	Brad Johnson: ok, let’s write some words about catchers

2:33	Erik: If you can’t get Sanchez, Posey, or Contreras, would just wait til the end of the draft to pick up a catcher? Looks like a whole lot of similarly-valuable not very good fantasy catchers this year, kinda like tight end in fantasy football drafts.

2:33	Brad Johnson: So Jeff’s big finding of the offseason is that positional scarcity doesn’t exist, EXCEPT for catchers

2:33	Brad Johnson: Even if you miss the top 3, it may make a lot of sense to secure the 4th or 6th best

2:34	Brad Johnson: I really like Austin Barnes, pretty sure Paul agrees on that one

2:34	Brad Johnson: Grandal’s continued presence could confuse things

2:34	Paul Sporer: And BHQ’s Forecaster has a piece they update in the front of the book yearly about endgame returns and it always shows C as a terrible endgame investment, so don’t just wait until the very end

2:34	Paul Sporer: Ya we love Barnes, but the market is adjusting. I was hoping Grandal looming would keep his price reasonable, but it hasn’t. That said, I do think Barnes will keep his PA up with 2B even if Grandal stays

2:34	Brad Johnson: Depending on your league, I’m seeing 2B and OF as the deepest positions

2:35	Brad Johnson: if you’re looking for a place to get late value

2:35	Brad Johnson: I don’t hate a value buy on Lucroy. Went from a career year to obviously hurt

2:35	Paul Sporer: You won’t find me drafting CI very early, either, unless a gem drops in the earlier rounds that I can’t pass (like I get Arenado/Votto in 1st/2nd and then J.Turner lasts too long or something)

2:36	Paul Sporer: He was OBVIOUSLY hurt, right? Bc I can’t find ANYTHING on it, but there’s no way Lucroy wasn’t battling some nagging injuries IMO

2:36	Brad Johnson: had to be. He literally morphed into Francisco Cervelli

2:36	Paul Sporer: lol good comp

2:36	Paul Sporer: Colorado bringing him back or they rolling Iannetta/Murphy/Wolters?

2:37	Brad Johnson: No idea, probably depends on whatever inside info they have

2:37	Paul Sporer: What about Alfaro on your club in Philly?

2:37	Brad Johnson: I’ve never been a big fan of Alfaro for fantasy purposes

2:37	Brad Johnson: Looks way too JP Arencibia to me

2:37	Brad Johnson: right down to the inconsistent defense

2:38	Brad Johnson: I actually thought the Phillies should consider buying low on Lucroy if he couldn’t find a home

2:38	Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t hate that

2:38	Brad Johnson: Something I said in November, we’re getting close to the time when that would make sense

2:38	Paul Sporer: I like Alfaro a little more, but that JP comp stings with some realness

2:38	Brad Johnson: I think their catchers really hurt their pitching staff

2:39	Corky: Re Catchers and trying to secure 4th thru 6th- is that true even for 1 catcher leagues?

2:40	Brad Johnson: I think so, once you start to fall past Realmuto, Perez, and Barnes, you’re looking at a lot of very similar players

2:40	Brad Johnson: Zunino and if Grandal is traded too

2:40	Paul Sporer: Ya if you don’t in on the top 5 or so, then you can wait in 1 C

2:40	Brad Johnson: I know I’m not paying for Welly, Suzuki, or Flowers

2:40	Paul Sporer: that’s when it gets really similar to football’s TE pool

2:41	Brad Johnson: I think if you miss the obviously good names, it pays to focus on getting some HR

2:41	Paul Sporer: I have some love for Ramos, btw

2:41	Paul Sporer: Fully healthy and no challenge whatsoever in TB

2:41	Brad Johnson: will help you to overcome shortfalls from a speedy guy like Dee Gordon

2:41	Brad Johnson: yea that’s a guy who could slip through the cracks a bit

2:41	Brad Johnson: we were drafting him last year when it was obvious he’d miss most of the season

2:42	Paul Sporer: Ya his missed time was underprojected like crazy

2:42	Brad Johnson: It’s funny how often that happens

2:42	Paul Sporer: Shifting back to 2 C real quick, I like Tucker Barnhart a bit, too

2:42	Paul Sporer: ALL. THE. TIME!!!

2:42	Brad Johnson: btw, Zach Britton 2018’s version of Ramos

2:43	Brad Johnson: will definitely miss more time than originally reported

2:43	Paul Sporer: I add 2-4 wks to every projected timetable off the top depending on the injury

2:43	Paul Sporer: 100% — so you going Brad Brach or Mychal Givens (I assume they’d get it over O’Day for sure)

2:43	Brad Johnson: I have no idea yet. Leaning Brach for now

2:44	Brad Johnson: They’re all similar enough, including O’Day, that it’s going to come down to spring evaluation

2:44	Paul Sporer: Same, took him in the continuation of my AFL 50 rd draft and hold

2:44	Brad Johnson: Speaking of closers…

2:44	Brian: In keepers, do you shun closers or embrace the elite ones?

2:44	Paul Sporer: I had the first pick in round 24 after we did 23 live in November and I made Brach the guy

2:45	Brad Johnson: It’s very much situational for me

2:45	Brad Johnson: closers are kind of like more extreme versions of SP for dynasty purposes

2:45	Brad Johnson: or keepers

2:45	Paul Sporer: I used to embrace the elite ones, but I’m backing away a little for the elites who make the playoffs as they’re now being taxed a lot more in October (and rightfully so, btw, but I do worry about the following year)

2:45	Brad Johnson: again, I look at them as finishing touches. I’ll pay full price if I have a surplus to deal from

2:46	Paul Sporer: Ya bc they’re dealing with normal pitcher health issues AND role volatility

2:46	Brad Johnson: otherwise, give me Sean Doolittle, Felipe Rivero, and Brad Hand every time

2:46	Brad Johnson: was very heavy on them last year

2:46	Brad Johnson: Had some Brandon Maurer shares too

2:46	Paul Sporer: I like that same crew this year, tbh

2:46	Brad Johnson: yea, but now they aren’t free

2:46	Brad Johnson: or nearly so

2:47	Paul Sporer: For sure

2:47	Brad Johnson: One thing I’ll note before changing topics, I’ve done some early work on the relief market, there aren’t many candidates to fill that setup to ace RP role

2:47	Brad Johnson: A lot of that is because many teams appear to have an elite closer in place

2:48	Brad Johnson: With the exception of a few teams like the Marlins, you’ll have to bet on guys like Ken Giles breaking

2:48	Brad Johnson: (Chris Devenski, presumably)

2:49	Matt: Who is the pitcher currently going outside the top 20 by NFBC ADP that is most likely to finish as a top 10 pitcher and why is it Jose Quintana?

2:49	Brad Johnson: Paul?

2:49	Brad Johnson: Frankly, I’m a little shocked to see Quintana outside of the top 20. I don’t monitor rankings very closely this early.

2:50	Paul Sporer: Q is a nice scoop bc he’s deemed boring which depresses his value at least a round more than it should be.

2:51	Brad Johnson: I assume Godley is outside of the top 20. I don’t think he’s very far from being an ace

2:52	Paul Sporer: I could see some of the former studs rebounding up there, too, like Cueto and Price

2:52	Brad Johnson: Also, the DBacks have a humidor now. It was installed last April/May but not approved for use. I assume it will be approved over the offseason.

2:52	Brad Johnson: Oh definitely

2:52	Brad Johnson: Those old guys are going to be some of the best value plays (and also busts)

2:52	Brad Johnson: 2018 version of Greinke

2:52	Paul Sporer: Also think Samardzija & Tanaka could have a big year because the IP are there and if they stop HRs, they’ll soar

2:52	Brad Johnson: Easier for Shark to avoid the bombs in AT&T

2:52	Paul Sporer: Yessss, think about how the market felt re: Greinke this time last year. Getting a strong vibe like that from Cueto in particular

2:53	Brad Johnson: Poor Tanaka plays in a little league park

2:53	Paul Sporer: you’d f’n think so, but he still allowed ’em last year

2:53	Paul Sporer: Imagine Tanaka in SF!

2:53	Brad Johnson: mmm

2:53	Brad Johnson: why didn’t he opt out 🙁

2:53	Brad Johnson: I mean I know why, there have always been copious leaks about his medicals.

2:54	Brad Johnson: which is usually a sign that nobody understands why his elbow still works

2:54	Paul Sporer: Ya I just think he was worried and it seems like he was smart to be

2:54	Brad Johnson: Getting a lot of questions about one guy in particular

2:54	Abrenn44: Healthy Paxton finishes _____ ranked SP

2:54	Paul Sporer: My longshot for this top 10 Q would be Garrett Richards, btw. We’ve seen him be top 10 level for big chunks, but he’d of course have to stay healthy

2:55	Brad Johnson: Give me 200 healthy IP and Paxton has to be easy top 10, borderline top 3. The uh, health, is obviously the issue

2:55	Brad Johnson: I want to believe

2:55	Paul Sporer: Healthy for how long bc 200 IP is just fictional… I mean it could happen, but even talking about it seems pointless

2:55	Brad Johnson: right?

2:55	Paul Sporer: But yes, I agree he’d be top 10 easy with 200

2:55	Brad Johnson: I’m hoping for younger Rich Hill basically

2:56	tb.25: How does the new AZ humidor impact batter values for the Dbacks? For example, Lamb relies on pull power, which may not decrease much with the humidor because of how much power he has, but could someone who sprays it more like Polluck have power hurt?

2:56	Paul Sporer: Can Lamb finish a season, btw? ’16 had the hand injury excuse, but another collapse last year

2:56	Brad Johnson: I don’t think we have to worry about the fly ball guys as much. Chase Field has the fastest moving infield, I think we’ll see slappy guys like Chris Owings suffer far more

2:57	Brad Johnson: Yea, I don’t know how to evaluate Lamb. I’m just going to pop him in the streaky category and ignore the actual timing of the streaks

2:57	Paul Sporer: Humidors help, but I’m dubious on some of the stuff saying it’d cut like 35% of the HRs or something. Someone like Lamb has his power player anyway. I think it’ll help guys like Godley and Taijuan a good bit, espec. the latter

2:57	Brad Johnson: Every time a guy gets labelled as a first half or second half guy, it usually turns out that he just happened to streak that way for a couple years

2:58	Brad Johnson: re: Godley, 55% GB rate and the humidor’s biggest effect may be on infield speed

2:59	Brad Johnson: I’m also liking Pat Corbin more, but I’ve noticed he’s not as sleepy as I expected

2:59	Paul Sporer: Ooh ya Corbs too

2:59	Paul Sporer: Do you ever worry when it’s always the 2H fade, though?

2:59	Paul Sporer: Not that it has been THAT long for Lamb, yet and like I said ’16 had the reasoning of injury

3:00	Paul Sporer: but if it’s someone always cold streaking in Aug/Sept, I’d worry about their durability

3:00	Brad Johnson: It’s less worry than confusion

3:00	Brad Johnson: I like to think I understand what’s happening

3:00	Brad Johnson: and tend to shy away when I don’t

3:00	Brad Johnson: I’m definitely a bit confused about Lamb. That said, his roto stats were bankable both years

3:01	Brad Johnson: It worries me more with pitchers, like how Kevin Gausman needs 15 starts to remember how to pitch

3:01	Paul Sporer: Exactly, those fades are less worrisome in roto for sure

3:01	Paul Sporer: LOL “oooohh, I have this splitter, cool! I’ll use it now!” -Gausman in June

3:01	Brad Johnson: ha

3:02	Brad Johnson: there are a few pitchers around the league I want to slap

3:02	Brad Johnson: did you know Mike Leake has a boss slider?

3:02	Brad Johnson: If he threw that thing 30%, I bet he’d be a 3.20 ERA pitcher. Instead, he hovers around 10% with it

3:03	Paul Sporer: It’s so weird

3:03	Brad Johnson: He just wants to use 6 pitches – it seems to me

3:03	Brad Johnson: Trying to be unpredictable instead of using his weapons

3:03	Paul Sporer: Ya, look at this deeeep arsenal I have! Orrr you could just use your best pitches and actually succeed

3:04	Brad Johnson: I think Trevor Bauer suffers a similar disease – with less command

3:04	Brad Johnson: “I worked on this shit all offseason, I’m using it for four months now”

3:04	Paul Sporer: Oh he’s definitely the posterboy

3:04	Brad Johnson: I co-manage a team with Chad Young, his take on Bauer is that he’s addicted to tinkering

3:04	Paul Sporer: I have 24 offerings! …. OK Trev, relax

3:05	Paul Sporer: 10000000000%

3:05	Brad Johnson: he’s actually “figured it out” a few times and tinkered his way right past it

3:05	Brad Johnson: We’ll see where he picks up this year

3:05	Brad Johnson: definitely a guy I’ll be watching closely after that great second half

3:06	Brad Johnson: Want to speculate about Yu Darvish?

3:06	JD15: For my fantasy team, where is the best realistic destination for Yu Darvish to sign?

3:06	Paul Sporer: Dodgers

3:06	Brad Johnson: Dodgers can’t sign Darvish and actually get under the lux cap

3:06	Brad Johnson: I mean, they probably can’t actually do it either way

3:06	Brad Johnson: seems like a pipe dream to me

3:07	Paul Sporer: Oh realistic was in that Q

3:07	Paul Sporer: Good call re: lux cap

3:07	Brad Johnson: I’m torn between the Yankees and Twins are top places. The AL Central is just so weak. But the Twins bullpen could blow some leads. His ratios will suffer in NYY, but he should win a billion games

3:07	Paul Sporer: Hmmm sooo then it’d be Minny

3:07	Brad Johnson: and Yanks could JUST squeeze under the cap with him

3:07	Paul Sporer: Ya how did Minny not get in on any of these RPs except GD Rodney!?

3:08	Brad Johnson: They tried, I have it on good authority

3:08	Paul Sporer: oh ok

3:08	Brad Johnson: misread the market

3:08	Paul Sporer: if they could done some Rockies-esque stuff, they might be the favorites even over CLE

3:08	Paul Sporer: miiiiiiight

3:08	Paul Sporer: but that chance passed

3:08	Brad Johnson: certainly would have helped

3:09	Paul Sporer: What about Arrieta?

3:09	Paul Sporer: Does he play in 2018? lol

3:09	Brad Johnson: haha

3:09	Brad Johnson: I expect he’ll re-sign in Chicago

3:09	Paul Sporer: less relevant for fantasy, but at what terms?

3:09	Brad Johnson: or perhaps the Ham Fighters?

3:09	Paul Sporer: bc if they can overpay for 3 yrs instead of getting locked in for 5+, I’d be ok

3:09	Paul Sporer: LOL, takes over for Ohtani!

3:10	Brad Johnson: So I think Darvish will get close to what everyone expects. Arrieta might wind up settling for like 4/$80MM just to stay on a contender

3:10	Brad Johnson: What’s the alternative, Milwaukee?

3:11	Brad Johnson: I don’t see much of a market

3:11	Paul Sporer: Ya, I just don’t see Arrieta’s market at all

3:12	Brad Johnson: Not to beat a dead horse, but it’s weird for everybody except a few relievers to be unsigned

3:12	Paul Sporer: there was an RP week and a backup 1B week of signings

3:12	Paul Sporer: and that. is. ittttt.

3:12	Brad Johnson: The Indians have played the role of market rescue squad in recent years

3:12	Brad Johnson: but I think they’re close to tapped out

3:13	Paul Sporer: if SD’s Hosmer gambit falls through, would they scoop either?

3:13	Brad Johnson: Might be time to set up a 31st team in Charlotte or Portland with all FAs

3:13	Brad Johnson: I don’t think so, they want a young position player to build around

3:13	Paul Sporer: LOL, they just buy up the market and go into battle without a supplemental draft

3:13	Brad Johnson: I mean look at what’s out there. The free agent pool is better than half the teams in the league

3:13	Paul Sporer: ya I think if they’re going to spend big it has to be a positional player… I agree with O’Dowd saying it’s like Wash with Werth

3:14	Paul Sporer: It’s a weak glass in general, but then it’s also interesting to see the entire league just tighten up on FAs all at the same time

3:14	Brad Johnson: exactly

3:15	Brad Johnson: So let’s change topics again, how was your 2017 season with regard to the DL?

3:15	Adam: Any thoughts on the optimal number of DL spots to accompany a 3-man bench? We used two last year in my NL-Only, which I found woefully inadequate when I had 8 guys on the real-life DL at one time.

3:15	Brad Johnson: I know I had a keeper league with 3 DL spots and 10 injured players I couldn’t cut

3:15	Brad Johnson: I happen to run that league and I’m bumping it up to 5 DL

3:16	Brad Johnson: As I wrote recently, I expect more teams to follow the Dodgers pitcher model. They also used the DL to juggle extra position players. Other teams will emulate one side or the other

3:17	Brad Johnson: Adam’s situation is a tad tricky – very thin bench, but the “only” format makes it so you don’t want owners stashing every injured guy

3:18	Brad Johnson: in 12 team mixed, you can kind of ignore stashing as an issue

3:18	Brad Johnson: I’d suggest 3 DL

3:19	Brad Johnson: (paul appears to have wandered off)

3:20	Brad Johnson: I actually have a meeting in 10 minutes so let’s start wrapping up

3:20	Post Hunk: Does this coming year seem more stars and scrubs applicable than most? Seems that there are a ton of cheap players that can make the leap.

3:20	Paul Sporer: Ya the DL allowed them to run a 30-man team essentially

3:21	Brad Johnson: I think we as an industry have an issue with playing the previous season. Last year was a GREAT stars and scrubs year

3:21	Brad Johnson: we think 2018 will be just like 2017, but often reality behaves different

3:21	Paul Sporer: And if we do start to see more true middle men with multi-inning outings 2-3x a week, then those guys could be bouncing on and off the DL as a way to keep the pen stocked

3:21	Brad Johnson: what I think we can assume is that a lot of people are going to try the Stars and Scrubs approach

3:21	Paul Sporer: ^^

3:22	Brad Johnson: so if you want to do the zig/zag thing, try grabbing a few big names and some mid-tier values

3:22	Brad Johnson: There’s no way around (over)paying for some studs

3:22	Brad Johnson: if you don’t do it, you will lose. The players you’ll eventually win cheaply are like Yonder Alonso

3:23	Paul Sporer: I would not over-adjust and make all leagues unlimited DL, though

3:23	Paul Sporer: bc then ppl will just hoard

3:23	Paul Sporer: going 3 to 5 like you did works

3:23	Paul Sporer: add 1-2, but don’t overcorrect

3:23	Brad Johnson: and as I point out, be mindful of your league type

3:23	Paul Sporer: It’s OK to force players to make choices, too

3:24	Matt: Paul, any chance we see the SP Guide this year? was one of my favorite resources for years, missed it last year.

3:25	Paul Sporer: I’ll be part of Joe Pisapia’s Black Book doing the SPs. More details on that very soon.

3:25	Brad Johnson: Paul, I’m going to jump off for my next appointment. Feel free to continue!

3:25	Paul Sporer: Thanks for setting this up, Brad! I enjoyed the dual chat

3:26	Brad Johnson: yea, was fun

3:26	Paul Sporer: I’ll take a few quick hitters, but I’ve gotta edit Jeff’s piece and get that posted

3:26	Johnny Coconuts: Why is Faria being regarded so little? It seemed like he had room to grow despite the velocity drop in ’17.

3:27	Paul Sporer: He’s part of The Glob! And I could definitely see him being a winter riser

3:28	Paul Sporer: Nick Pollack at PitcherList has raved so that’s a good co-sign and if he starts getting some burn in other articles/podcasts, I can see him rising

3:28	Esteban: Who do you keep, Daniel Murphy or Justin Turner?

3:29	Paul Sporer: Turner. Just a little nervous on Murphy’s knee surgery until we see him in camp. They’re v close, though

3:29	Byron Buxton: Say positive things about me, please!

3:31

Paul Sporer: I’m still on the skeptical side, I’m not gonna lie. His surge came against an awful schedule when the team surged. However, as we discussed earlier, that schedule could stay pretty lame with the AL Central as the foundation of it. The skills are def there, but now he’s a top 50 pick?! Yikes

3:31	Freddy: Who are your top rookies for this ’18 season that you think will have a relevant fantasy impact?

3:31	Paul Sporer: Acuna and Honeywell are my favorites

3:31	Bob Villar: Machado or Bellinger in a dynasty?

3:31	Paul Sporer: I’m still leaning Machado

3:31	Vinícius Veiga: The Cardinals should go for contending or keep their status balanced?

3:32	Paul Sporer: I think they are going for it and should continue to do so. They’re pretty well positioned

3:33	Bob Villar: David Price! Discuss.

3:33	Paul Sporer: Priced to buy for sure.

3:34	Paul Sporer: The stuff is still there. I know there was some turmoil with the Eck stuff and maybe Boston isn’t the best market for him, but that stuff seemed to inflate the perception of his struggles

3:35	Paul Sporer: Another 2017 Greinke type where he could surge back to his previous heights without incident and wind up as a game-changer for those who draft him

3:35	Slapshot: Have you convinced Mia Khalifa to play fantasy baseball yet?

3:35	Paul Sporer: We’ll see. Baseball is def not her favorite sport, but I think I can at least get her to draft a team

3:36	Bort: Hosmer in Colorado on a deal with an early opt-out: why not?

3:38	Paul Sporer: It makes a lot of sense, tbh. Desmond to LF and it’s not like McMahon MUST play immediately so you can ease him in

3:38	Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll

3:39	Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out. My normal chat will be back this week! And Eno pod coming for sure!

3:39	Brad Johnson: bye everyone!

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG