Fatigue units attempt to physiologically represent the workloads pitchers face. This includes velocity, days of rest, pitches per inning, and even the pace they pitch. Pitchers with extreme workloads were 2.7x more likely to have Tommy John surgery when compared to pitchers with moderate workloads. Who has worked the hardest in 2017?
Ottoneu, like most fantasy leagues, uses a soft innings cap. This is pretty standard. You have an innings limit of 1,500 IP, and the day that you go over that innings limit, you are able to exceed it by as many innings as possible. How can we use this rule in our pursuit of a league championship?
Looking at Ottoneu specifically, though easily adjustable to any league format, you would want to get as close as possible to your innings limit, then on the last day, fill out your pitching lineup with players who are pitching that day. For example, start the day you plan to go over with 1,499 IP and throw 5 starters that day, with 5 RP in your lineup as well. Practically, this could get you another ~25-40 innings. Even if these innings fell below replacement level, they are still valuable as they would not be points you would otherwise accrue. Even if your pitchers were terrible across the board you would be looking at a lower bound of around 50 points, with an upper limit in the 250 point range. That’s a big gain on competitors who may not deploy the same tactic.
This is the main reason I recommend pacing your innings at 1,550 to 1,600 all year. It allows the flexibility to wait a week or two to pick your last day to blow up your pitching totals. Read the rest of this entry »
On Wednesday Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece about the ‘flyball revolution’, which I am sure many of you have already read. Today I want to expand upon what he wrote, and tie in a theory for what may be going on. My theory is probably wrong, but it ties together a few of the articles I’ve written recently (1, 2, 3, 4,) and expounds on my current thinking on the Statcast data.
I know I’ve been touching on the topics of exit velocity and launch angle a lot recently, but I think it is important to understand and begin integrating into everyday analysis. Before anyone can use that analysis, we as a community need to build up an intuition for how the stats relate to one another. This is new for everyone.
Why are you doing reading this? There’s a poll. Stop wasting time!
AGENDA
Episode 297 – There’s My Yellow Light
The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!
In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss the White Sox building their roster from the ground up, the Indians’ win streak, scoring big with Jeimer Candelario, losing interest in Jose Urena, Luis Valbuena turning things around, the Orioles rotation vs. the Tigers rotation, the return of Henderson Alvarez, actually considering Kyle Gibson, 2018 Garrett Richards being the 2017 Lance Lynn, Matt Joyce and the A’s being on fire, and more of Matt’s softball drama.
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The Arizona Diamondbacks have some intriguing, high-ceiling prospects and quite a few intriguing players sprinkled throughout their minor league system. I quite liked their 2017 draft.
First Taste of The Show: Ildemaro Vargas, IF: The Diamondbacks didn’t really give much playing time to rookies in 2017 so I’ll focus on Vargas even though he had just three plate appearances in The Show. He actually has a chance to be an intriguing utility guy off the bench but the organization stuck with mostly at second base and that has hurt his value. He received opportunities at third base, shortstop and center field – but those opportunities were few and far between. Vargas’ strength comes from making an insane amount of contact – He struck out just 7.5% of the time at triple-A in 2017. He showed a willingness to take a walk in the lower minors but, at the upper levels, he’s been far more reliant on his batting average to drive his on-base percentage. Still, middle infielders that can consistently threaten to hit .300 are in short supply.
All that stood between the Indians and the major league record for consecutive wins with no ties was Kelvin Herrera. On a different night, it could have been Scott Alexander who was charged with protecting a streak-ending 2-1 lead for the Royals. However, the lefty had pitched on each of the two previous days, tossing a total of 37 pitches, and on five of the previous seven days. So on Thursday night, Ned Yost chose Herrera to pitch the bottom of the ninth.
It was Herrera’s first save opportunity in a week and his third appearance since being removed from the closer’s role last Friday. He was close to preventing the Indians from making history, as he worked a 1-2 count on Francisco Lindor with two outs and a runner on first. Herrera’s fourth pitch was high, and Lindor smashed his fifth pitch off the left-field wall for a game-tying double. While Herrera blew the save, he did not take the loss, as he retired Austin Jackson for the third out.
Read the rest of this entry »
9/14/17
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
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The season numbers aren’t great but we’ve picked up some steam over the last few weeks and hopefully will finish strong. As always, if you have any suggestions or tips, please feel free to mention them in the comments section, and thank you for reading.
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 22)
41-40 record
4.74 ERA
7.8 K/9
2.5 K/BB
1.40 WHIP
44 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
RHP Dinelson Lamet – 36.6% ESPN – v. ARI (95), v. COL (86)
Lamet dueled with Ervin Santana at Target Field on Wednesday night, and while his team came out on the short end of a walk-off loss, it was a giant step forward for the 25-year-old righty who has put together an intriguing season, to say the least. He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last 10 starts, and that’s good for a 2.44 ERA, .553 OPS against and 66-28 K/BB ratio over 59 innings. However, this week he not only has matchups against two teams with so-so or worse offenses, but he’s also pitching at home, where he’s been markedly better (3.59 ERA) than on the road (4.73).
Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned pitchers throwing tomorrow (<10% in Yahoo! leagues).
Sean Newcomb (9% owned) vs. Mets (Rafael Montero)
Why not? He’s what streaming is about, strikeouts and maybe a Win. He has a 9.4 K/9 on the season with 11.6 K/9 in AAA. He’s facing a beatable Mets team with Montero on the mound. While he’ll walk more than a batter every other inning inflating the owner’s WHIP and ERA, owners know these lowly guys have some negative traits. At least Newcomb as some positive ones, too.