Archive for June, 2017

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 30th, 2017

Chat transcript is below!!


Paul Sporer: It’s Friday!!!! Let’s talk some baseball.


Henry: Should I start Jon Gray in Arizona, or is it too risky in Arizona for his first start back?


Paul Sporer: It’s pretty risky, but I think I’d give it a go personally


Ted: Pollock soon!?


Paul Sporer: Not this weekend, but soon


Jason: OMG literally just finished listening to your 3 hour SP rankings pod, amazing.  Thank you for all your hard work.

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Roto Riteup: June 30, 2017

OK, we finally found the one way to stop Aaron Judge:

Well, actually two ways as David Robertson fanned Judge to end the game:

On the Agenda:

  • Turner Down with Broken Wrist
  • Klubot Gets Software Upgrade
  • Gettin’ Grichy with It
  • Cutch Stays Hot
  • Other News

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Five Low-Owned RP Options – Kahnle, Parker, Yates, Petit and Green

Motivation for who I choose to write about can come in all different places. This week, my motivation for revisiting non-closing relievers is the result of a tweet thread started by colleague Jeff Zimmerman. Jeff pointed out in his initial tweet that in 15-team Mixed Tout Wars, the median WHIP has increased from 1.24 in 2016 to 1.31 this season (as of June 26).

Rob Silver speculated that WHIPs and ERAs are up as a result of gamers chasing bad starting pitching to replace injured starters who are on the DL, and I think that’s a reasonable belief. My suggestion is to consider some of the following relievers instead of streaming mediocre — or worse — starting pitchers, especially if you’re in the middle of a logjam for points in ERA and WHIP in your roto league standings. The relievers below are listed in order of my preference for adding with the first reliever suggested my favorite option and the last my least favorite addition. Read the rest of this entry »

The Prospect Stock Watch: Hays, Alvarez, Kopech

Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at a breakout Orioles outfielder, more prospect thievery for the Astros, and a wild arm capable of hitting 100 mph.

Austin Hays, OF, Orioles: Selected 91st overall in 2016, Hays has already reached double-A. The well-rounded outfielder has done nothing but hit as a pro despite an inconsistent amateur record. He owns a career .336 average and .945 OPS. And he’s added power to his resume in 2017 with 18 bombs in just 72 games.

Hays has been putting balls over the fence despite a well-controlled swing that helped him strike out just 43 times so far this year (13%) – a very low number for someone closing in on 20 homers. Just 21, his biggest need at this point is to work on getting on base more consistently without having to rely so heavily on his batting average. His walk rate sits at just 4%. Although he’s not a big stolen base guy, Hays should have enough speed to stick in center field for the foreseeable future. He’s been a real steal for the Orioles and someone you’re going to start hearing a lot more about in the near future.

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The Daily Grind: Treat Earner Earns Stint on DL

We’re grinding our way into the four-day (Matt) holiday weekend. There will be no grind on Sunday – I have a game.


  1. Uh-Oh
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Hitters to Use
  5. SaberSim Says…
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Field of Streams: Episode 276 – A Perfectly Cromulent Outfielder

Episode 276 – A Perfectly Cromulent Outfielder

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Albert Almora’s finger scandal, Miguel Montero’s history of drama, Ben Lively’s complete lack of strikeouts (and upside), confusing Anthony Recker and Matt den Dekker, Chris Tillman continuing to be remarkably bad, a cursory look at Felix Jorge, Rich Hill being disappointing, Jordan Zimmermann being in “the Nolasco zone,” Jhoulys Chacin’s continued remarkable home/road splits, Mallex Smith being Matt’s favorite player, and Matt’s heartbreaking softball loss.

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Quick Looks: Newcomb, Gonzales, Gossett

Today, I’ve got Quick Looks on Newcomb, Gonzales, and Gossett. Let’s start with the young lefty in Atlanta, one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

Sean Newcomb

For Newcomb, I watched his June 21st start against the Giants.

• He’s on the extreme first side of the pitching rubber and throws from a low 3/4 arm slot. This combination will make it tough for left-handed hitters to square him up but right-handed hitters should have a good view of the ball. This idea has not been born out yet, with lefties putting up a .400 BABIP against him.

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PitchFX Forensics: Julio Urias and Anterior Shoulder Capsule Tears

The Dodgers Julio Urias is done for the year, and probably most of next season, with a torn Anterior Capsule – a devastating shoulder injury. The anterior capsule is a combination of ligaments which provide stability to the shoulder. Have you ever heard someone state that they had “a frozen shoulder”? Well, frozen shoulders (or, adhesive capsulitis), is impingement of that same capsule, and it results in huge range of motion loss, and incredible discomfort. You can imagine how damage to that structure would be catastrophic to a pitcher.

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One Man’s OUTs Are Another Man’s Treasure.

Over the past few weeks I have been working on a stat which I call OUTs.  I’m bad at naming things, I’m sorry. If you have a better name, please, help. Anyways, this stat sums weakly hit balls and strikeouts and subtracts well hit balls and walks, then divides it all by plate appearances. If you would like to see the exact formula, you can read this article.

For this stat, lower is indeed better. Also, you can convert this number to a bbFIP (batted ball FIP) by multiplying by -11 and adding 5.6. You can also convert to a Draftkings salary by multiplying by -2700 and adding 4000, although with Draftkings it is better to add and subtract the standard deviation (.3) from the OUTs score to create a range of values.

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Underthrown Pitches And The Pitchers Who Underthrow Them: Putting It All Together

Over the last several weeks, I’ve scoured Baseball Prospectus’ PitchF/x leaderboards for the league’s underthrown pitches. We’ve covered two different pitch types each week starting with four-seam fastballs and sinkers in the first installment, cutters and curves in the second, and sliders and changeups last week. This week, we put it all together. Now that we’ve identified the most underthrown pitches, who should consider overhauling his entire pitch mix to make the most of his electric stuff?

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