The Prospect Stock Watch: Hays, Alvarez, Kopech

Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at a breakout Orioles outfielder, more prospect thievery for the Astros, and a wild arm capable of hitting 100 mph.

Austin Hays, OF, Orioles: Selected 91st overall in 2016, Hays has already reached double-A. The well-rounded outfielder has done nothing but hit as a pro despite an inconsistent amateur record. He owns a career .336 average and .945 OPS. And he’s added power to his resume in 2017 with 18 bombs in just 72 games.

Hays has been putting balls over the fence despite a well-controlled swing that helped him strike out just 43 times so far this year (13%) – a very low number for someone closing in on 20 homers. Just 21, his biggest need at this point is to work on getting on base more consistently without having to rely so heavily on his batting average. His walk rate sits at just 4%. Although he’s not a big stolen base guy, Hays should have enough speed to stick in center field for the foreseeable future. He’s been a real steal for the Orioles and someone you’re going to start hearing a lot more about in the near future.

Yordan Alvarez, 1B, Astros: Houston just might be the masters of mining the lowest rungs of the minor leagues when you consider their acquisitions of Francis Martes, David Paulino and Alvarez. Signed out of Cuba by the Dodgers and given $2 million, the teenaged Alvarez was flipped to the Astros before even playing one pro game for them. Assigned to low-A in 2017, he showed a strong idea of the strike zone (23 walks in 32 games), power (nine homers) and the ability to consistently barrel the ball (.360 average). He recently earned a promotion to high-A ball at the age of 20. The bar for a first base prospect is very high so Alvarez has a long way to go but this trade is looking good.

Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox: I was a little worried about Kopech’s move from the Red Sox organization to the White Sox because I have a lot more faith in the former’s development system. Adding to those concerns was the fact Chicago jumped Kopech over high-A ball to double-A to begin the 2017 season. Overall, though, the odd decision (with more risk than obvious reward) has gone OK. He’s struck out 97 batters in 75 innings and allowed just five homers. On the down side, though, he’s made little improvement with his control and has issued 49 free passes. Kopech, 21, has basically been “effectively wild” and able to overpower minor league hitters with his upper 90s fastball and power breaking ball. Look for the young hurler to need about another year’s worth of development. He could reach the White Sox starting rotation by mid-2018.