Paul Sporer Baseball Chat - June 30th, 2017 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

2:13	Paul Sporer: It’s Friday!!!! Let’s talk some baseball.

2:13	Henry: Should I start Jon Gray in Arizona, or is it too risky in Arizona for his first start back?

2:13	Paul Sporer: It’s pretty risky, but I think I’d give it a go personally

2:13	Ted: Pollock soon!?

2:13	Paul Sporer: Not this weekend, but soon

2:13	Jason: OMG literally just finished listening to your 3 hour SP rankings pod, amazing. Thank you for all your hard work.

2:14	Paul Sporer: No problem! Eno and I can’t record this week so I’m even happier that I went long since it’s essentially two pods in one

2:14	Noah: To be clear: Ray is a must start because SP landscape is bad and at least you’ll get strikeouts/take a chance at upside?

2:15	Paul Sporer: Ya, plus he’s looked better at home of late and there appears to be a real change behind it (sped up mechanics keeping his timing in check)

2:15	Jon: are you buying, selling, or holding Kyle Hendricks in 2017 and beyond (keep forever league)?

2:15	Paul Sporer: Selling

2:15	Zach: Judge and B. McCarthy or Bellinger and Nola. Which side do you prefer?

2:15	Paul Sporer: Judge side, but it’s really fair

2:15	Ken: So here’s an utterly depressing question: Maldonado, Vogt, Leon, Gomes orrrr the bad McCann?

2:16	Paul Sporer: Ya that’s tough. I’ll go Maldonado but they aren’t all that different

2:18	Big Tuna: TREA! NO! Can I get by in a 12 tm w Lowrie, Andrelton and Addy at 2B/SS/MI?

2:18	Paul Sporer: I mean, you’re gonna have to it seems. Sooo tough to replace Trea

2:18	Sam: Is Severino changeup good? Or is he another pineda?

2:20	Paul Sporer: It’s pretty good, better than Pineda’s for sure, IMO

2:22	Jan: JC Ramirez was higher on your SP ranks than I expected. Got roughed up a bit last time out – you keeping him where he is? And what are expecting RoS?

2:24	Paul Sporer: Don’t get too hung up on the number, that SS tier is large so he’s pretty meh. Just a matchup play for sure. 4.50ish ERA ROS

2:24	Perl: 5×5 ottoneu trade: $35 Sale for $11 Story and $13 Pollock what do you think?

2:24	Paul Sporer: that seems pretty fair. I’d imagine the person selling Sale is more eyeing the future

2:24	Paul Sporer: though it’s not exactly bad for ’17, either, once Pollock returns

2:24	Big Tuna: Which returning injured starter would you prefer to roster: Sabathia, Morton, Cahill?

2:24	Paul Sporer: Cahill

2:24

Trip McNealy: I’m looking for a power upgrade and was offered Nick Castellanos for Chris Owings straight up. I argued this trade isn’t fair in the slightest (even though I’m secretly interested in acquiring Nicholas on the cheap), but my potential trade partner argued that Owings has regressed to the mean and won’t be nearly as good as he was in April and May. Who is right here?

2:24	Paul Sporer: He is, tbh

2:25	Paul Sporer: I regularly check to make sure Owings is still in the league since April!

2:25	Paul Sporer: JK, he’s been aight, but nowhere near a stud. I’d do the deal

2:25	Tim: So if you need speed at this point in the season, are you more inclined to hunt the wire for cheap steals or trade for a speedster?

2:26	Paul Sporer: Ideally scoop, but it’s so hard that I usually just trade for one

2:26	Paul Sporer: … like, say Trea Turner… who I acquired for James Paxton

2:26	Paul Sporer: Thankfully I got his June, but damn it stings to lose him

2:26	Tim: Also, Josh Tomlin blows. No question.

2:26	Paul Sporer: Duh.

2:27	Paul Sporer: Could be some fireworks in Detroit w/Tomlin & Anibal going

2:27	Jack: What to do with Julio Urias in dynasty leagues?

2:27	Paul Sporer: Gotta hold unless you want to sell dirt cheap

2:27	Trea Turner Blues: Just lost Trea in a 12 team H2H, waiver wire is thin. Is Bellinger (can be kept for 1 year at no cost) for Correa or C Seager worth doing?

2:27	Paul Sporer: Absolutely

2:27	Nate: 12 team OBP redraft: Lindor for my Yelich + Jimmy Nelson? Need a SS. Should I try Yelich for Lindor 1 for 1 first?

2:27	Paul Sporer: You can try the 1 for 1, but I’d do the 2-for-1 if they push back. I know Lindor has struggled with his AVG, but I still prefer him to Yelich.

2:28	AD: Who do you like best ROS, with bonus consideration for SB’s? Pillar, Margot, or Mallex

2:29	Paul Sporer: Margot is my fave there

2:29	Rutherford The Brave: Which one turns it around this season: Odor, Story, Todd Frazier?

2:29	Paul Sporer: Story

2:29	Luck Dragons: How bad is Ryan’s team?

2:29	Paul Sporer: Who’s Ryan

2:29	We Demand Morer Sporer: Every pod should be 3 hours long.

2:29	Paul Sporer: LOL

2:29	seth: Hit by Trea Turner’s wrist! Luckily can salvage his keeper value for next year in a deal. Which package do you prefer: Votto+Machado+Samardzija (none keepable) for Trea+Conforto+Pineda (all keepable) or D Murphy+Hendricks for Trea+Edwin Diaz or Freddie Freeman+Gomez+Calhoun for Trea+Gallo?

2:29	Paul Sporer: First deal

2:30	JayB: who would you prefer in a 12-team H2H dynasty….A.Chapman+Arrieta or Braun

2:30	Paul Sporer: That’s pretty damn fair. Don’t have a strong lean, but I’d say Braun slightly. Needs dictate how eager I’d be to do it

2:33	Chris: Did you know: Not all hip hop songs sample James Brown tracks, which is to say that not enough hip hop songs sample James Brown tracks.

2:33	Big Tuna: If I was gonna trade Moreland for a good WHIP SP in a 12 tm OPS league, what level arm should I be looking for?

2:33	Paul Sporer: Probably someone in the SS tier http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-rankings-update-june…

2:33	CNB: Hi Paul! How much are you buying Smoak’s improvement this season long term? I’m in need of 1B and thinking of investing.

2:35	Paul Sporer: I’m pretty confident in it, I don’t mind investing

2:35	Luck Dragons: Dee Gordon was dropped on 5/20 in my 8-teamer, should that owner be embarrassed?

2:35	Paul Sporer: 8-teamer is tough to kill em in it

2:38	KP: Is Zimmerman in a slump or are the underlying numbers still positive?

2:38	Paul Sporer: Ryan? I think he’ll be OK, just a little lull

2:38	Jason: Simmons or Josh Harrison to replace my injured Turner?

2:39	Paul Sporer: Andrelton for the better speed

2:39	Moltar: Hitting is very shallow in my league and pitching is very deep. Think I’ll regret it if I drop Desmond? Guys like Reddick, Peralta and Calhoun are on the wire, meanwhile the highest owned pitcher available is Hammel.

2:39	Paul Sporer: Nah it seems like you can move on from him. I love Desmond, but ya hitting seems v deep w/those guys on the wire

2:39	Henry: You have M. Montgomery as a Spot Start, does that mean I shouldn’t start him today in Cincy?

2:40	Paul Sporer: They’re about average in wRC+ v. lefties, so I’d use him

2:40	Fez: Chuck Nasty or Judge?

2:41	Paul Sporer: Damn that’s tough. Gotta go Judge

2:41	Dave: Any optimism for Salazar when he returns to Cleveland?

2:41	Paul Sporer: I’m a sucker for him, but I’m cautiously optimistic

2:42	Tommy: Throwing in the towel in AL Only. In a vacuum without prices or owner knowledge, who are you looking to acquire as ‘relative unknowns’?

2:42	Paul Sporer: Like guys that haven’t really performed this year but have skills or guys performing but could come cheaper than maybe they should?

2:42	Luck Dragons: What closer trio do you prefer — Rivero/JWilson/AReed, or KHerrera/MBush/KGiles?

2:43	Paul Sporer: That’s tough bc Wilson and Herrera could be traded into non-closing roles… hell, so could Rivero. Gimme 2nd trio

2:43	Moltar: Banger of the day

2:43	Pat: % Dozier power surge coming?

2:43	Paul Sporer: 32%

2:43	Darin: Hey Paul! Thanks for the Super Size Pod! I’m horrible with MI in a Roto OBP. Trade away Healy for A. Simmons?

2:44	Paul Sporer: Ya, that’ll work. Love Healy, but you gotta get a solid MI

2:44	Chris: Have any thoughts on Luis Castillo?

2:47	Paul Sporer: Saw some highlights and I’m going to look deeper into him. Stay tuned

2:47	Colin: Are you buying Luke Weaver as a 2/3 SP?

2:47	Paul Sporer: Yes, long-term I’m very interested. Obviously he’s a long way from that, but it’s in there

2:48	Meat: Is deGrom too much for Rendon in a dynasty league? And is this the new Rendon?

2:49	Paul Sporer: No it’s not too much and I buy the Rendon we’re seeing. I’ve always been a huge fan, believing that health is really the only roadblock to stardom

2:49	Spiff: Are we onboard the Ozuna train? Seems like he did this last year, but there was a wrist injury. You think first half performance is sustainable for ROY?

2:50	Paul Sporer: I love Ozuna – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/paul-sporers-bold-predictions/ (ignore some of those duds, lol)

2:50	Greg: Who is the true Rick Porcello?

2:51	Paul Sporer: Somewhere in 3.80-4.30 is his true talent level, IMO. Last year was high end, this is low end

2:51	Matt: Grandal or Flowers?

2:51	Paul Sporer: Grandal

2:51	Luck Dragons: Grandal or Ramos

2:52	Paul Sporer: leaning Grandal barely bc we don’t know how Ramos will hold up

2:52	Pete: I was smart NOT to start Pineda in HOU tonight, right?

2:52	Paul Sporer: Yes. On the podcast, I moved Pineda to usually start tier, switching him with Sevvy. I think this is a good spot to sit Pineda. He’ll probably drop 7 strong, but the process says sit him

2:53	Mike: Rostering Amed Rosario in a keeper forever, can get Murphy to try and win. Worth it eh?

2:53	Paul Sporer: absolutely

2:53	Dough: Should I use the pitchinfo data? I was looking at Wood: 92.7 FB velo in pitch type tab. 94.2 in PitchInfo tab. Is one more correct than the other?

2:53	Paul Sporer: I think they’re taken differently, so both can right, but I don’t remember the exact differences

2:54	Paul: I’ve been sitting on Rosenthal and Hand in a 12-team redraft, think I should be dropping either at this point?

2:54	Paul Sporer: If you’ve held this long and don’t desperately need the spot, I’d hold. Particularly Rosy

2:54	Rox fan: Anyone notice what ryan McMahon has been up to?

2:55	Paul Sporer: Wow, just checked. Called up to AAA on June 1st: .429/.460/.714, 6 HR

2:55	Paul: Oh also, do you think Bud Norris gets his job back right away?

2:55	Paul Sporer: I do, actually

2:56	Frozone: Jordan Montgomery for Danny Duffy and Addison Reed? Who wins that deal?

2:56	Paul Sporer: I loooovvve J Mo, but the Duffy/Reed side wins

2:56	Michael: Your best guess at Simmons final numbers?

2:57	Paul Sporer: .270/14/28

2:59	Jim: Chapman still top 5?

2:59	Paul Sporer: Yes

2:59	Seth: Best potential pickup of injured waiver wire SP’s: Duffy, Salazar, Aaron Sanchez?

2:59	Paul Sporer: Sanchez, Duffy, Salazar in that order, but all three should be stashed IMO

2:59	Maybin: Ahem, 40sbs in my grasp?

2:59	Paul Sporer: If you can stay healthy!!!!

2:59	Ryan: Long weekend in Canada and a PaulChat to get us there. SWEET!!!

2:59	Paul Sporer: Wooooo!!!

3:02	Paul Spore: Mallex or Margot?

3:02	Paul Sporer: Margot

3:02	Patty: Paul, need to know who you prefer in a dynasty league: G. Cole or L. McCullers.

3:02	Paul Sporer: Gah, tough Sporer favorites. Cole

3:02	Lars: Drop Lucroy for Alex Avila in 10-team? I can’t take it any more!

3:03	Paul Sporer: Maaaan, that seems tough.

3:03	Biagini: Thoughts on Cruz going cold? He getting old?

3:04	Paul Sporer: It’s 86 PA lol

3:04	Ombudsman: What’s up Paul $. Would you start either of Mike Montgomery at Cin tonight and/or Mike Foltynewicz at Oak tonight?

3:04	Paul Sporer: Both, tbh

3:05	Kiermaiers Dashing Good Looks: Who was your free All-star for the show?!?

3:06	Paul Sporer: Catshit Hunter for the Yankees, meh

3:06

Gyorko Store: Jedd Gyorko’s opposite field batted ball percentage has jumped by six percentage points this year. Does that indicate a possible slowing bat speed? Or something else? His hard hit % has dropped, but he’s sporting a career high BABIP, so that makes me think he’s a sell high candidate. Thoughts?

3:09	Paul Sporer: That’s not necessarily bat speed. He could be doing it on purpose to use all fields. He’s still hitting at essentially the same hard contact (-2% from last yr). I don’t mind if you wanna sell, but I’m not sure you’re gonna get a ton

3:09	Linus: Joc Pederson a person of interest in 10-team shallows with the way he’s been launching?

3:09	Big Tuna: Joc is back! Joc is back?

3:10	Paul Sporer: Y’all know I love Joc. I could see going hot hand in a 10-teamer, but OF is so deep that he’s not a must-own in 10ers

3:10	Patty: Paul, need to know who you prefer in dynasty: G. Cole or L. McCullers. I have Cole and don’t want to sell low, but he has been frustrating me.

3:11	Paul Sporer: Please don’t repeat questionsssss!! I’ll get to as many as I can! Repeating only artificially inflates the queue and stresses me out lol

3:11	Adam: Thanks for the chat! Any specific process you follow for evaluating trades?

3:11	Paul Sporer: No, it’s really dependent on the trade. I do focus on needs, though, as opposed to just overall value.

3:15	Lucky: Grade the trade: dealt Bellinger, Odor, and Bregman for Freddie Freeman, Dozier, and Ryon Healy. 10-team redraft.

3:15	Paul Sporer: Like side B slightly

3:15	Luck Dragons: 50 bucks says you I beat you in a standard H2H re-draft league

3:15	Paul Sporer: Cool

3:15	Paul Sporer: So you’ll give me 50 bucks if you beat me? Lit.

3:16	Paul Sporer: Think I played this last week, too, but it’s so great for summer

3:16	Marc: Time to stash Starling Marte in 10-team redrafts yet?

3:16	Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d say go ahead now

3:16	Jay: For an owner looking for SS/steals to replace Turner, how much of a ransom can I set for Jose Peraza?

3:17	Paul Sporer: LOL, I mean that’s impossible to answer. It’s whatever your market will bear

3:17	Tim: I currently have a dreamy 5-man rotation in my AL-only league, two of which are Quintana and Verlander. Any chance they both stay in the AL or should I be expecting to wave goodbye to one or both?

3:17	Paul Sporer: Both are being discussed, but not necessarily to only NL teams. You’re already mentally preparing yourself to possibly lose one, but I doubt you’d lose both

3:18	A different Paul: Who’s the Nats’ closer a month from now? And how about the week after that?

3:18	Paul Sporer: Kelvin Herrera

3:19	Micah: Carlos Gomez: hold or stream in 10-team?

3:19	Paul Sporer: Stream

3:19	Crazy Aunt Marie: Can I ride a rotation with Wood, Mccullers, Nelson, Faria, Godley, and J. Monty when I have an offense that has no holes? (Except 2nd but Rizzo will fill that shortly)

3:19	Paul Sporer: I mean, we’ve seen this year that the soundest staff can fall apart in a second, so injuries are always a concern, but I dig the talent

3:20	Paul Sporer: Assuming health for the sake of the discussion, yes you can ride that out

3:20	bearproof: traded V. Martinez for A.Cobb in 14 team h2h and got veto votes protesting the cobb side winning the trade. Ridiculous , right? I mean pretty good chance I’m on the losing side of the trade, I just needed pitching depth and took a chance on the splitter showing back up.

3:20	Paul Sporer: WTF?!?!?

3:20	Paul Sporer: That’s insane

3:20	Paul Sporer: I hate vetoes SOOOO much

3:20	Paul Sporer: I didn’t pay my fn money to be told how to run my team

3:20	Paul Sporer: And that is sooo far from vetoable

3:21	Saves?: We’ve heard they’re not free, but I’ve got a strong rotation and a weak bullpen in NL-only and am looking to deal for a stud closer. What caliber of SP do you think is a fair offer for Kenley? Ray or Cueto too low?

3:22	Paul Sporer: Either SHOULD get it done, IMO, but I don’t think Cueto would rn bc he’s a little down. Ray would depend on the Jansen owner’s perception of him

3:22	Randy Randerson: Matz’s numbers, particularly his swinging strike %, haven’t been good since his return. Is he shaking the rust off still or would you look to move him while the results still look good? Thanks Paul!

3:22	Paul Sporer: Rust, IMO. I’m sitting tight. Health is always a cloud hanging over him, but he can be pretty high impact when on and healthy

3:22	Catching is a mess: Which C ROS: Mesoraco’s injury-riddled promise or Flowers’ age 31 breakout

3:22	Paul Sporer: Ride it out with Flowers’ silly BABIP

3:23

Steve: Hey Paul, I’m in a 14-team pts league. Been trying to decide between starting Souza, Puig, or Domingo Santana each week. They’re all very close points wise to this point but I’d like to drop one of them to help pick up another position. How would you rank these guys ROS? Any of them stick out or just throw a dart? Thanks!

3:24	Paul Sporer: There isn’t one that jumps out, but it’s a solid trio. If I were cutting one, it’d be Souza, but that’s almost a coinflip

3:24	Over Yonder: Paul, is Yonder Alonso turning reverting back to “just a guy”

3:25	Paul Sporer: Nah, because even in his meh June, he still hit 3 HR which was nearly half his 2016 count lol

3:25

rustydude: Would you trade a $2 Dickerson & $9 Andrus to receive back a $9 Trea Turner in a FG pts league? The context is rather unique. He’s in 1st place (repeat champion), 600 pts ahead of me in 2nd place. His team is so completely loaded even without Trea Turner. Wondering whether to punt and set myself up for next yr.

3:26	Paul Sporer: No, hold your guys and chase him down

3:26	mlbshow17: Hey, I finally finished the conquest map, what do i spend my coins on? who is the money batter to pay up for??

3:26	Paul Sporer: Need some options. What position you looking at? How many stubs do you have?

3:27	Henry: Start Vargas against Minnesota today?

3:27	Paul Sporer: Yep

3:27	Greg: Does fangraphs approve of your foul language? Thanks for giving it to fuck face Zack Hample

3:28	Paul Sporer: I can’t stand that clown

3:28	Gorky: Are you expecting the same studliness with Freddie Freeman once he returns next week?

3:28	Paul Sporer: Yeah, I mean for the most part

3:28	Billy Beane: Is Bruce Maxwell worthy of my starting C position in an 11-team AL-only league?

3:28	Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m cool w/taking a shot on him

3:28	CraftyPils: nobody wants my Bellinger (12tm Roto)….what is a reasonable SP target?

3:29	Paul Sporer: Someone in the Usually Start tier http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-rankings-update-june…

3:29	That Guy: I’m so glad you promised a 2h53min chat to match your 2h53min pod!

3:29	Paul Sporer: LOL I did NOT do that

3:29	WhositWhat: Is Avisail Garcia worth rostering? 12 team mixed, keeper league.

3:30	Paul Sporer: Ya for sure. He’s been solid even after his big April

3:30	Ken: Who do you think is quickest to earning me saves between Doolittle and Rosenthal?

3:30	Paul Sporer: Rosy. Could see Doo traded and not necessarily to close

3:30	Sebastian: Hey Paul,my tteam projects for 30 steals, half from Peraza. Is it even worth rostering Peraza if I’m not getting many steals ROS?

3:30	Paul Sporer: Nah, sell him for something more useful to your categories

3:30

Gyorko Store: Jedd Gyorko’s opposite field batted ball percentage has jumped by six percentage points this year. Does that indicate a possible slowing bat speed? Or something else? His hard hit % has dropped, but he’s sporting a career high BABIP, so that makes me think he’s a sell high candidate. Thoughts?

3:30	Paul Sporer: damn you

3:31	Rick: Thoughts on my boy Dinelson Lamet? Also, where is this podcast you did on SP rankings?

3:31	Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-474-…

3:32	Paul Sporer: Two disastrous outings, but five really good ones.

3:33

Paul Sporer: Saw him live in SD last weekend and was impressed with the slider. He was either getting a swing and miss or watching it sail to the wall, just shy of a HR. Tigers JUST missed like 3-4 HRs. It’s funny bc then I watched the telecast days later and the little scouting report thing had this header: ALL OR NOTHING with a stat that said something like (can’t remember EXACT #) 54% of his PA were strikeout or extra-base hit

3:33	Paul Sporer: So that kinda highlights his volatility, but it’s more good than bad and I’m digging Lamet

3:33	Perl: corey dickerson for elvis andrus? who wins

3:34	Paul Sporer: Really depends on needs, perfectly fair deal

3:34	Ken: General strategy question: Since I’m leading in wins and strikeouts, would it be smart to dump my last starter or two and replace with low-ratio RP guys? Or is it too early in the season to start getting cute like that?

3:34	Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t just dump useful starters in this market. Look to move them for something you can use, even if it’s the aforementioned good ratio RPs

3:34	Luck Dragons: What do you think of this staff in an 8-teamer: Kershaw, Scherzer, Carrasco, Lester, Syndergaard, Stroman, Duffy, Nola, Maeda, Matz

3:34	Paul Sporer: You’re just bragging. You have the top 2 SPs so even with the injuries, it’s obv still awesome

3:35	Matt: In an effort to make a push for first, I put T Turner on the block yesterday at ~noon. Then…well….

3:35	Paul Sporer: Ouchhhh

3:35	Matt: Pick 2: Manaea (@SEA), Freeland (CIN, CHW), Nelson, (BAL, @NYY)

3:35	Paul Sporer: Manaea and Nelson. No chance I’m starting Freeland twice at home

3:35	Tuna: Thoughts on Jacob Faria in a dynasty? Can he maintain some semblance of what he has been doing so far?

3:37	Paul Sporer: He could, sure, but I think he’s probably more a rich man’s Jake Odorizzi right now. Showing more swing-and-miss than we’ve seen from Odorizzi (btw, think peak Odorizzi, not the one giving up 2.1 HR/9 this yr)

3:37	YKnotDisco?!: More contradicting name? Sonny Gray or Angel Pagan?

3:37	Paul Sporer: lol

3:37	Josh: I have Smoak and Morrison at 1B in dynasty, with Freeman coming back soon. Do you trust the first two enough to trade Freeman?

3:37	Paul Sporer: Ehhhh, I know Freef will draw the most in the market, but I’d rather hold on, espec. since it seems like he’s going to be a 3B

3:37	Luke: Is Junior Guerra worth hanging onto or has he basically become a streaming option at this ppint?

3:38	Paul Sporer: Streamer in any format where you’d consider him except NL only

3:38	Henry: Should I trade Robbie Grossman and Trey Mancini for Sonny Gray?

3:38	Paul Sporer: Sure, that works

3:38	CNB: Thanks for the Smoak answer!

3:38	Paul Sporer: You’re welcome!

3:38	Dongmingo: Trade away Kluber+B. Parker for Lamb+A. Miller? 16 team holds league. My pitching is in healthy shape even without Kluber (MadBum, Keuchel, Wood, Matz and Nelson). Should I do it?

3:40	Paul Sporer: Love Lamb, but I need a bigger bat for Klubot rn

3:40	Ken: Does Corbin become a must-own if/when that humidor shows up?

3:40	Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t go that far

3:40	Mort: Is Tommy Pham a 10-team bat for you?

3:40	Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t go that far

3:40	Sandy Ravage: Are you worried about Carrasco? I know you jinxed him this week, but Rangers taking him to town scares me

3:41	Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m not too worried about him

3:41	Eric: Villar with two homers last night, can he regain his 2016 form or something close to it?

3:43	Paul Sporer: He was pacing around 20 HR/40 SB before the injury, so ya I think he can be a solid asset and get his AVG to at least .250 or so

3:43	Patrick: What are your thoughts on Peacock? Should I hold and hope for more stats then amove to the pen (where I think he could be awesome) or trade him for a reliver? AL only Saves + Holds

3:43	Paul Sporer: I’d hold him. I know it’s a 4-5 IP guy, but those Ks are filthy

3:44	Eric: Can I cut Russell Martin in a 12-team league? He’s been pretty brutal all year and has like 5 RBI on the season

3:44	Paul Sporer: Just not sure there’s anything all that much better, so I’d hold on tbh

3:44	Elmo Delmo: Are you feeling confident in a Story rebound? I want to buy low but he’s been so bad and not a long track record

3:45	Paul Sporer: Ya I still think he’s got a big run in him

3:45	Podcast: Thank you for your podcast! Moving from Arizona to California and listened to the entire pitcher ranking update. Made the first half the drive quite enjoyable.

3:45	Paul Sporer: Hey , no problem! Good luck on your move

3:45	James: As a fellow Tigers fan, do you trust Avila presiding over the rebuild?

3:45	Paul Sporer: I think he’s a middle of the pack GM, so I’m OK w/him at the helm

3:46	Trip McNealy: what in tarnation is wrong with Josh Donaldson?

3:47	Paul Sporer: Nothing? Hasn’t been awful. I know it’s a 2-week cold streak, but unless he’s hurting again, he’ll be aight

3:47	Matt: Should I sit tight with Verlander, or try to trade him? If trade, what level of hitter would you seek in return?

3:48

Paul Sporer: Y’all, these are so hard to answer. I have no clue what your market will yield or what you need. It’s much better if you identify some targets and then I can give you my thoughts on how viable it might be (and even still, that’s just my guess, your leaguemate could still say no… or yes, if it’s a high end one)

3:48	longbeach3: yoo

3:48	Paul Sporer: We caught a hanger, Sarge!

3:48	Cru Jones: Jordan Montgomery vs. MIL (Guerra) or Rich Hill vs. KC (Hammel) next week?

3:48	Paul Sporer: J Mo!

3:48	Greg: Buy low on David Price?

3:48	Paul Sporer: If it’s a legit buy low, yes

3:48	Boombastic: Who will be most fantastic (upside): Rodon, Bauer, or Luis Castillo?

3:49	Paul Sporer: Rodon. But I reserve judgment on Castillo until a deeper div

3:49	Paul Sporer: dive*

3:49	Mokajige: Aaron Hicks is a FA in my league. I know obliques are tricky. But I could put Heyward on my DL to pick up Hicks and then swap them when Heyward returns. Worth it?

3:49	Paul Sporer: Ya, go for it

3:49	Perl: is sam dyson ok again?

3:49	Paul Sporer: RPs are fickle enough that I certainly wouldn’t dismiss it

3:49	Paul Sporer: Wonder if they move Melancon and just let Dyson eat up saves ROS

3:50	YKnotDisco?!: How proud (1-10) should I be that my 2 year old daughter says “I got” x4?

3:50	Paul Sporer: Love it! My sister and bro-in-law get my niece singing some good stuff regularly, too. it’s so cute

3:51	Bart: Trout for Scherzer and J Bradley OR Solarte/ Tomas in a 12 Team roto keeper league? Which side are you on?

3:51	Paul Sporer: Trout, he’s taking batting practice tonight

3:51	Hold the Odor: Drop Haniger or Piscotty for Smith? Need steals and Piscotty isnt exactly contributing.

3:51	Paul Sporer: Ya, let Piscotty go for him to get your SBs

3:51	Triple O: Hader gonna start?

3:51	Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. I haven’t seen anything on it yet, but I know Jorge Lopez was called up and I like him

3:52	James: What’s the line you think McCutchen will put up ROS?

3:55	Paul Sporer: I think he can take his current bottom line and do it ROS (.852 OPS)

3:56	murray: Would u consider it unethical to advise another owner to pickup a player/put in a claim so your main competitor doesn’t get him?

3:56	Paul Sporer: Ya, I mean blatantly doing that isn’t great. Maybe if you’re having a discussion about picking up guys and you happen to bring someone up, that’s fine

3:57	Sporer is #1!: How is my favorite baseball writer today? Also help me pick an arm to trade away between Archer, Cueto, Strohman, and Cole. Leaning Archer because I think his percieved value would be the highest (and i also disagree with the his consensus percieved value). Thanks as always!

3:57	Paul Sporer: Hey thanks!! I agree that Archer will draw the most and that’s why I’d also shop him

3:57	BK: I’m in first place in a h2h points league by a decent margin in terms of points. What’s the best way to ensure I don’t hit the variance bug and get booted out of the playoffs despite having a far superior team?

3:58	Paul Sporer: Just keep plugging away like you don’t have a lead

3:58

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: My team is officially in your hands for one minute. I have a trade offer of Nelson Cruz for my Darvish. Standard 10 tm league but shallow rosters. It’s a fair trade but my rotation afterwards is DeGrom, Cole, Nola, Tanaka, Aaron Sanchez, Peacock and Manaea. Should I pull the trigger?

3:58	Paul Sporer: Ya I can definitely get behind that deal

3:59	Crazy Aunt Marie: Joey Votto is amazing. Not a question, but I wish he played in a bigger market so he wouldn’t be so underappreciated

3:59	Paul Sporer: He’s so amazing

3:59	Moelicious: Who is the odd man out in STL when Fowler returns?

4:00	Big Diesel: Answer my Schwarber questions asshole

4:00	Paul Sporer: Moe, I think it’ll be a rotation, tbh. I don’t think one single guy will get merked

4:01	Paul Sporer: Big Diesel, no

4:01	RJ: Odor was finally dropped in my 12-team mixer and no one claimed him. He’s been awful. Is he better than Baez, Lowrie, or Forsythe the rest of the way? Thanks.

4:02	Paul Sporer: I’d go for him over Forsythe

4:02	Josiah: Start J Mont @ Hou tomorrow?

4:02	Paul Sporer: Gahhhh, that’s tough. Love him, but if I’m sitting Pineda, I think I gotta stay consistent and sit J Mo since they’re in the same tier

4:03	Big Diesel: How about answering my fucking Schwarber question

4:03	Paul Sporer: Wonder if this ever works

4:03	Dumbo: Is ozuna and berrios too much for judge in a dynasty?

4:03	Paul Sporer: I think so, yes, but maybe I’m STILLLL just getting Judge wrong lol

4:03	Paul Sporer: BTW, it’s not that I think it’s a BAD trade. I just prefer the duo

4:04	twtcommish: Now you’ll start getting Schwarber questions by someone with the username “Big Diesel (wearing a fake mustache)”

4:04	Tyler: Schwarber is garbage Big Diesel, get on with your life

4:04	Big Diesel: Is Kyle Schwarber an asset that should be picked up off the waiver wire?

4:04	Lamb of Dongs: I slept weird the other night and my neck hurts. Got any advice?

4:04	Paul Sporer: Neck pain is the worst. Perhaps a massage?

4:04	JotCast: FYI, we’ll be rolling out a new feature next week to filter out duplicate messages!

4:05	Paul Sporer: WOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

4:05	Justin Bour: Am I better rest of year than Kendra Morales or Eric Thames?

4:05	Paul Sporer: I love Bour, I’ll say yes for Kendrys, and about equal to Thames

4:05	Paul Sporer: BTW, I had Thames & Judge flipped. I thought Judge would go the way Thames has and vice versa.

4:05	Gabriel: What do you think of Gregory Polanco

4:05	Gabriel: moving forward?

4:06	Paul Sporer: I was SO excited about him this year until the shoulder issue popped up again and we’ve seen it kinda keep him at an 85-90% version of himself. I still love him long-term.

4:06	Vegan Man!: What type of SP should I target for Abreu in a 12 team roto? Someone in the “US” section or can I aim higher? Thanks!

4:06	Paul Sporer: I think you gotta focus US at the high end. Maybe some of the low-end MS who aren’t exactly aces, but rather steady Eddies

4:06	Peter Griffin: When is that humidor getting installed?

4:07	Paul Sporer: Great question. I feel like we’ve been hearing in a week or so for a while now… like me when I first stalled to get my SP Update up lol

4:07	Mack: Who is the better Turner replacement, Villar or Gennett? 10 tm pts league

4:07	Paul Sporer: Villar for the SBs

4:07	AD: Ever play in any multisport leagues?

4:08	Paul Sporer: I played in the original one that Jonah Keri started. I didn’t do well. My lack of bball knowledge became painfully evident

4:08	twtcommish: Move Lamb before the humidor kicks in?

4:08	Paul Sporer: Meh, I don’t think it’s going to be as impactful as some suggest

4:08	Avila not Avila: Need to drop one between Morton, Nola, and Bundy. Any thoughts? I’ve tried to trade off Bundy with no takers

4:08	Paul Sporer: Gah, I think it’s gotta be Morton then. Health has just constantly eluded him

4:09	Trip McNealy: If you’re in a fantasy baseball chat seeking an opinion on your roster in a friggin 8-team league, well that’s just fine by me

4:09	Paul Sporer: LOL you had me there! I thought you were about to league shame, well played

4:09	twtcommish: Had a few Dodger fans tell me Kershaw doesn’t look quite right, maybe lingering back stuff. Any concerns? Obvs still good, but if he’s 80% of his usual self I can probably still get 100% value now.

4:10	Paul Sporer: Hmm, wonder if they’re seeing something specific or judging off the HRs in his results. I could see it being some lingering back issues (backs are a bitch… he says, as he stretches his out as it throbs endlessly), but I’m not sure it’s actionable either way

4:10	Ben: Just posted on twitter: Was looking at the Hard% leaders & seems DET guys (Castellanos, Miggy, Upton and V-Mart all top 30) lag in hr/fb. Any idea why?

4:11	Paul Sporer: Park is probably the easiest link. That park plays a lot worse than I think it gets credit for and they’ve been smashing balls to center that just don’t do anything

4:11	Domingo: Carlos Gonzalez on the wire in 12 tm redraft, is he worth a snag?

4:11	Paul Sporer: Meh

4:11	JimyJam: Is June just a random good month for Gio Gonzalez or are there reasons to be optimistic?

4:13	Paul Sporer: I kinda dig Gio, even if only as a 3.50ish SP w/some solid Ks and offensive support (though awful bullpen support)

4:13	Greg: If you had to deal one of Paxton, Stroman, Cueto, Nelson, Manaea who would it be?

4:13	Paul Sporer: Paxton would likely draw the most in the market

4:13	Ikarn Johal: Who is more likely to keep up their current production: stanton or justin upton?

4:14	Paul Sporer: J Up, if only bc he’s been a lot more healthy in his career

4:14	Paul Sporer: Talent-wise, both can maintain, though

4:14	Roman: Is it worth rostering Betances in a non-holds league anymore?

4:15	Paul Sporer: Depends how many teams, but ya he can be a K and ratio boost and offset some of the shitty SP we have to consider in this environment

4:16	Miguel R: Fulmer/Archer/Myers for Chris Sale? Is that too much?

4:16	Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so

4:16	Tim Tebow: Which side for long-term Schward+Machado or Arenado?

4:16	Paul Sporer: Side A. I love Arenado, but he’s only slightly better than MM for me, so it’s a free lottery ticket

4:19	Patrick: Big fan of your FanGraphs work, Twitter game and MLB The Show Twitch. Good Stuff. No question, carry on.

4:19	Paul Sporer: Thank you!

4:19	Roger Dodger: Is Bregman worth holding on to in a 12 team league as a UTIL? With power up across the board, does he make the cut?

4:19	Paul Sporer: I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if there was someone better available

4:19	Gyorko Store: As a counter to JotCast’s filtering out of duplicate messages, I know I posted multiple times (every 10 minutes or so) because I know these chats get hundreds of questions so it’s easy to pass my question by the first time. If the filter only gives me one shot, that makes it hard.

4:20	Paul Sporer: But I usually go in order so I saw your first one

4:20	Paul Sporer: Just be patient

4:20	Tyler: Top 3 favorite rappers?

4:21	Paul Sporer: Outkast (yes I’m counting both together), Kanye, and Drake. Yes, those are my FAVORITES. Not the most technically sound or best flows or whatever, just my favorites. Nothing more, nothing less

4:21	James: Bour or Alonso ROS?

4:21	Paul Sporer: Bour

4:21	Mike: Catcher ROS – Gattis, Ramos, Molina

4:22	Paul Sporer: I’d rank em in that order

4:22	Vegan Man!: Is Bellinger and Marte too much for Goldy in a 12 team h2h, keep 4?

4:22	Paul Sporer: Hmm it’s pricey, but you want the superstar power in shallower leagues, so I can get behind it

4:22	Lamb of Dongs: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/06/30/fantasy-plays-can… NO HUMIDOR IN ARIZONA

4:23	Paul Sporer: “Additionally, the Diamondbacks nixed the plans to add a humidor this year.”

4:25	Tyler: Not shocking but I cant argue with that top 3. Outkast very underrated.

4:27	Paul Sporer: Ya I’m kind of a basic bitch, but I’m always open to new stuff, too. Also looove Chance. And Kyle, Joey Bada$$, and Tee Grizzley have been getting heavy spins on my playlists, too

4:28	Moltar: Who are your top 3 favorite Pauls?

4:28	Paul Sporer: McCartney, Molitor (his MLB The Show card is straight fire so he’s on the mind lately), and my dad

4:28	Vegan Man!: Re Goldy: Would you rather give Bellinger and Myers, given Marte’s speed? Thanks for taking my questions!

4:28	Paul Sporer: I would, yes

4:29	Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta get going. Went a little longer since there’s no Eno pod this week!

4:30	Paul Sporer: Thank you so much for hanging out. ICYMI check out my SP ranking update from last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-rankings-update-june… and a 3 hr podcast dissecting said list: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-474-…

4:31

Paul Sporer: Follow me on Twitter @sporer (always answering fantasy questions there), on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at twitch.tv/psporer24 where I stream MLB The Show 17 and talk baseball 3-5 nights a week (not sure if I’m streaming tonight bc I’m going to the movies, but tomorrow for sure!). Talk to yall later!!

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 30th, 2017