Quick Looks: Newcomb, Gonzales, Gossett

Today, I’ve got Quick Looks on Newcomb, Gonzales, and Gossett. Let’s start with the young lefty in Atlanta, one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

Sean Newcomb

For Newcomb, I watched his June 21st start against the Giants.

• He’s on the extreme first side of the pitching rubber and throws from a low 3/4 arm slot. This combination will make it tough for left-handed hitters to square him up but right-handed hitters should have a good view of the ball. This idea has not been born out yet, with lefties putting up a .400 BABIP against him.

• Fastball: 91-95 mph with some release side run. His velocity is down from some scouting reports which had him in the “93-97 mph range“, but I don’t know how lefties hit this pitch. It seemed to have hitters off balance but this effect could be because they are seeing him for the first time.

• Curve: 76-80 mph and a 10-4 action which is expected given his arm slot. Hitters weren’t picking up this pitch at all. He had the Giants swinging at pitches bouncing in front of the plate. He started the game using just this pitch and his fastball until the 6th when he broke out his slider.
(9 out 10 stars on Samardzija’s bat throw)

• Slider (81): This devastating to left-handed hitters. It’s coming in like his fastball but just keeps breaking to his glove side.

• Change: 84-86 mph very straight and very hittable.

Overall: He’s a little gimmicky with only a couple good pitches and throwing at an angle. Sometimes this works. Most of the time it doesn’t … at least on a consistent basis. I think he can be a good pitcher (#3 start, back end of pitching staffs in 12-team leagues), but not great. With a 1.48 ERA, he looks polished but his value is supported by a .250 BABIP and sub-0.5 HR/9. Those won’t last. Additionally, he been able to find the strike zone as the other Jeff discussed in a recent article.

I think Newcomb as a wide range of possible outcomes with just small changes/corrections in his profile. I would hold and ride the hot streak but don’t be surprised if he hits a rough stretch once the league adjusts to him.

Marco Gonzales

• I’ve always had a soft spot for Gonzales and was all in before the 2015 season when he was around #50 in top prospect lists. I watched his start on June 16th when he lasted 3.1 innings as the emergency call up for a double header.

• The 25-year-old lefty had a weird position on the rubber. He was all the way to the 3B side but threw with a 3/4 slot. This positioning will help to eliminate any platoon split, but ended up being ineffective in this outing.

• Fastball (91); 90-92 mph with release side run and who knows. Some of his pitches sank. Others rose. Here are his pitches plotted by velocity and vertical movement. A pitch at +12 is a heavy rising fastball with fastballs near zero having heavy sink.

Rise

Sink

• Changeup (84): 82-84 mph. Straight with a late dip sometimes. It generated some swings-and-misses when it moved. When it didn’t, it went for extra bases.

• Curve(79): 78-80 mph with 10-3 break. Kind of loopy, not a sharp break. He only threw is three times so he didn’t have too much confidence in it.

• He had some small, quirky movements in his delivery. I would not have been surprised if the Brewers found a tell in the fourth inning and just started teeing off on him. I think he may have quit his toe tap on his change but not 100% sure that was it.

Overall: After seeing the results, I expected worse. He was going good for three innings and then started to get pounded. While he could throw strikes, there is not enough swing-and-miss in his game. Additionally, he has not refined all his pitches enough so he knows what they are going to do. A pitcher who is in the high 90’s can get away with these mistakes, Gonzales can’t right now. If called back up, I see him as a 4th to 5th starter and probably only playable in deep or NL-only leagues.

Daniel Gossett

I watch Gossett’s first career start against the Marlins because the rest of the camera angles were horrible.

• The 24-year-old righty has a little higher than 3/4 delivery throwing right at the plate.

• FB (92): 88-93 mph. A really straight, bland fastball but he can command it around the strike zone. I think he only has one fastball and the automatic pitch identification says he throws a 2-seamer, 4-seamer, sinker, and cutter. The only one I thought might be unique is the cutter but they got classified as that pitch when he took something off when the pitcher was hitting.

• CH (82): 81-83 mph. Quite a bit slower than his fastball with some late downward or release side break. It could be good if it doesn’t hang.

• SL(84): 82-84 mph. Just nasty with 12-6 (1-7) break. Nearly a plus plus pitch with a 19% SwStr% on the season. If he can get to two strikes, this is a nice out pitch, especially since he can throw it for strikes. He did hang one and Tyler Moore took it yard.

• CU(78): At 77 mph with 12-6. Barely threw it and two were no where near the plate.

Overall: Gossett has a lot of sort of OK stuff but nothing great besides the slider. He can throw four pitches but they are inconsistent. He hung too many of his breakers allowing solid contact (1.7 HR/9 on the season). He’s got enough ability to be in the majors and that’s it. Something got to change for him to take a step forward. Velocity. Better fastball movement. Something. For now he’s a match up pitcher.