I’m considering making this a daily Aaron Judge column. I’ll put it off for at least a day since the Yankees don’t play today.
AGENDA
The Roto Riteup would like to remind you to have a safe Cinco de Mayo, but a shot of tequilla always make the Roto Riteup go down smoothly.
Now THIS is how you #ShakeOnIt. pic.twitter.com/1SgmR3xYc9
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) May 4, 2017
In a largely boring night in Closerville, one of the more notable developments occurred in a non-save situation. Twins manager Paul Molitor decided to bring Brandon Kintzler in with a four-run lead in the top of the ninth against the A’s, and the closer got himself into a bases-loaded, no-out situation. Matt Joyce brought in a run with a single, keeping the bases loaded, but Kintzler prevented further damage by getting a force out at home, followed by a double play ball.
It’s not this near-meltdown that is significant, but rather the problems with Kintzler that this outing highlighted. Though he doesn’t profile as a typical closer, Kintzler has had success in the past due to good control and strong ground ball tendencies. He has had neither this season, at least not consistently. Meanwhile, he has allowed oodles of contact, sporting a 5.3 percent swinging strike rate.
Pivetta (Phillies) was not on my radar coming into the season but I was intrigued by his five strikeouts in five innings start. Here is what I saw from the 24-year-old righty in his start on April 30th against the Dodgers:
• Fastball: Four-seamer at 92-97 mph with some release side run. He got a decent number of swings-and-misses with the pitch (10%). He may have a 2-seamer he broke out a few times.
I was going to use the opportunity for my weekly content here to talk about Jake Lamb and his 481-foot home run, but I didn’t want to oversaturate the third base column with more Lamb material than I’ve already indulged myself in the past several months. Even if he is extremely noteworthy these days. Instead, let’s talk about one of his National League West counterparts: Justin Turner.
If you’ve tuned in before, you know what this is about. If not: the Small-Sample Normalization Service (SSNS) seeks to, ah, normalize a player’s performance in the context of his own previous achievements (or lack thereof). Most of us are human, and our humanity leaves us vulnerable to the biases that cloud rational thought and critical analysis. Such vulnerability is eagerly exploited by the small sample size, never more so than in April. While midseason small samples cower under the cover of hundreds more plate appearances, April performances have no such luxury.
A month’s worth of playing time is certainly more worthwhile to assess than one week’s worth, but 30 innings or 100 plate appearances can still be pretty volatile. Here are a few still-small samples that recently caught my eye.
All graphs pulled prior to yesterday’s games.
Name: Byron Buxton, MIN OF
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If playing ottoneu for the first time, or even if you have played for a while, one of the areas that typically requires adaptation is that of in season auctions. While typical leagues use a FAAB, ottoneu does not, requiring you to budget $400 for all roster spots. So how do you want to spend the money you have left over after the annual auction? Do you want to be aggressive and go after players performing well through the season’s first month? What about players who have under-performed on their expectations and have been cut? Are there any injured players who have been cut in an effort to reclaim cap space?
Many in season auctions will fall into one of these three categories. A look at the current auctions in one of my leagues shows a wide range of possible motivations in nominating a player.
I had originally planned to do a piece discussing the offseason assessments of Eric Thames and how the projection systems were all rather bullish on him and yet many weren’t quite ready to trust the numbers. I find that interesting because projection systems are notoriously conservative and yet they had him down for 25-30 homers with an .800-.850 OPS. I can’t say I was out there blindly trusting the numbers, either. I’m not one who relies too heavily on projections when doing my drafts and auctions, but I was heartened by how seemingly aggressive the systems were on Thames and wound up securing a few shares.
Instead of doing all that, I’ve decided to go a different route. I’m going to go position-by-position assess the 1-for-1s I’d offer for Thames. That’s right, everyone thinks about selling Thames, but I’d strongly entertain buying and I think these names would entice a lot of leaguemates. I know not everyone does straight up 1-for-1s, but hopefully this will give you an idea of what to look for if you’re in the Thames market – whether as a buyer or seller. I have a group of on the fence players at each position and I’d recommend trying for those when selling Thames.
We just don’t see months like his April too often.
It’s getting to that point when we have to wonder if all the hitters are going to eclipse 50 home runs this year. It’s getting absurd. Khris Davis has 10 home runs, and not a single person is impressed.
AGENDA
This is an interesting pair of recommendations, as an established vet shares the same low ownership as a younger, relatively unknown quantity.