The Daily Grind: Judge Not

It’s getting to that point when we have to wonder if all the hitters are going to eclipse 50 home runs this year. It’s getting absurd. Khris Davis has 10 home runs, and not a single person is impressed.

AGENDA

1. Judge Not
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Players to Avoid
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Judge Not

You wonder, perhaps, if we’ve had enough looks at Aaron Judge. Here he is taking advantage of his home park with an oppo boppo on a fastball. Then he hammers a hanging curve ball.

Judge has been quite disciplined at the plate, something we didn’t expect based on the minor league track record. He’s a threat against anything within the strike zone, and he’ll usually lay off outside the zone. Incidentally, the key to success is to trick him into swinging at balls. His O-Contact% is just 38.6 percent for his brief career. League average is around 63 percent. So, all you have to do is get him to swing at the pitches at which he doesn’t usually swing.

2. Weather Reports

Sorry St. Louis, you’re getting rained out tonight. The rest of the league should be fine.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: The aces are a little less acey than the typical day. There’s still something worrisome about Jake Arrieta even though he’s getting good results. Well, aside from last week against the Red Sox. That’s a little bit like struggling at Coors Field. Kudos if you don’t.

Carlos Carrasco is easily the top play even though he’s $200 cheaper than Arrieta. Miguel Cabrera is back for the Tigers, but there’s probably some rust to shake off. Their lineup is still quite top heavy.

Jacob deGrom is posting big strikeout rates this season. He’s a great GPP play so long as he dodges Freddie Freeman.

Marcus Stroman is priced like an ace, but he belongs in the $8,000 bin. Despite being mispriced, he makes a good contrarian pick. CC Sabathia is a neutral opponent, and Stroman can run away with a complete game from time to time. Yankee Stadium is always a difficult venue to navigate.

Jameson Taillon has the easiest win on the docket. If his offense doesn’t spot him five runs against Rookie Davis, well, I’d be surprised. Great American Ballpark makes it risky to try Taillon.

I’m big into Drew Pomeranz right now, but he’s been throwing a lot of pitches per inning. One of these days, he’ll have a nice clean eight inning, 12 strikeout gem.

If I reach for a bargain, it’s for Kendall Graveman at Target Field or Charlie Morton hosting the Rangers. I’m not over keen is use either tonight.

Stack Targets: Davis, Mike Pelfrey, Nick Martinez, Antonio Senzatela, Adam Conley, Kevin Gausman, Matt Boyd, Jered Weaver, Blake Snell, Nate Karns, Bartolo Colon, Adam Wainwright, Ricky Nolasco, Jerad Eickhoff, Jeff Samardzija

4. Players to Avoid

Julio Urias probably won’t throw enough innings to earn his $8,500. It’s very unlikely. While I’d consider overpay for Stroman, it’s because he can post a top score. Urias can’t get there in five plus innings.

Josh Phegley is facing a lefty so his projection is through the roof. I’ll pass. Sure, he has a little pop. He’s a low average, low OBP bat, and it’s not like he’s Giancarlo Stanton in the power department. Or even Jett Bandy.

Billy Hamilton runs all over the Reds. He’s especially swipesy versus Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow. He’s already faced them. Taillon is considerably less stolen base prone. Hamilton can steal against anyone, but he probably won’t take three like he did on Monday.

5. SaberSim Says…

Snell, deGrom, Wainwright, Urias, and Arrieta are the top projected pitchers. Hard pass on Snell and Wainwright. No idea what SaberSim sees in them. Snell lacks command and Waino lacks a usable fastball. Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Khris Davis, George Springer, and Charlie Blackmon are the top bats. They, at least, all pass a smell test.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to jjmcgowan. He’s carried over his hot play on FanDuel. He edged jfud by just 0.9 points. The leaderboard is updated.

We’re back on DraftKings for another go.