Charlie Morton’s increased velocity in an injury-shortened 2016 coupled with him retaining the improved cheddar in the spring created a bit of buzz entering the year. I was bullish about his 2017 outlook, and thus far, he’s done nothing to diminish my optimistic outlook for the season. Digging into the numbers after a half-dozen starts reveals more good than bad. Read the rest of this entry »
It seems nobody at MLB.com bothered to video-ize the Phillies five man infield shift. Too bad. The play worked beautifully for a 6-9-3 double play. Philadelphia later lost anyway.
AGENDA
Episode 260 – Way Tulowitzki
The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!
In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Star Wars day, Andrew Toles’ continual viability, Ty Blach’s continual lack of upside, Pat Valaika’s best feature as being on a Major League roster, the uninspiring battle of Trevor Bauer against the Royals, Matt picking on the Pirates and putting his faith in Matt Garza, Chris Tillman making his 2017 debut, worrying about Travis d’Arnaud’s injury because New York Mets, actually recommending Mike Trout, and Matt’s softball win.
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They went to the mop-up guy for today’s Bullpen Report! Filling in for Alan, so let’s talk some relievers.
Washington Stays Confusing
Enny Romero notched his first save of the season with two strikeouts in the ninth. Shawn Kelley is allegedly healthy re: any arm injuries, though a sickness reported a few days back has lingered, but hasn’t pitched since April 29th and allowed runs in each of his last two appearances. Romero is a 26-year old lefty, who throws incredibly hard and flashed swing-and-miss excellence, but holds a reverse platoon split and doesn’t seem like a credible threat to take the role. Washington’s 2017 save leader isn’t on the team yet. By the way, I took a massive L with Blake Treinen. More like Blake Failnen.
Edit: Here is the Washington Post reporting that he is in fact still sick.
5/4/17
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Strategy Section: Assessing Some of the Best Starts
Breakout
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Major League Baseball Advanced Media collects and distributes the hit and pitch tracking data. This data gives the general public some additional information previously unavailable like pitch spin and batted ball angle. The system has almost removed the need for stringers (people who collect batted ball and game data) except for plays wich get immediately described for the Gameday feed. Each batted ball get the designation of a bunt, ground ball, fly ball, line drive, or popup. Sometimes, it’s tough to designate each batted ball type. Today, I am going to look at the triple point for line drives, pop ups, and fly balls.
I would be honored if you would join me… in a conversation about three players. Okay, that’s probably the last Star Wars reference. No promises, though.
Each of these players have a few things in common. First, their on field performance has been a bit of a surprise. Second, they may have been a bit unlucky. Third, public perception of their value has been rocky. Two of them are being sold off. One of them is getting bought. Let’s get into it. Read the rest of this entry »
It really pains me to do this but today I’m going to tell you about Justin Smoak. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. A former top prospect, Smoak is now 30 years old and playing in his third season in Toronto. He’s been the subject of dozens of articles over the years with largely the same outcome, disappointment. In over 2600 Major League plate appearances, Smoak owns a career wRC+ of 95. He’s been a serviceable major leaguer who’s never fully lived up to his tantalizing potential. So, it’s only in the context of a Deep League Waiver Wire piece that I’d continue beating this dead horse after so many years. Read the rest of this entry »
The research I’ve done on Effective Velocity to date has led to some interesting examples that in many cases suggest the strategy has an impact on pitcher success. But to be able to really take advantage of that implication, I felt I needed to create an ERA estimator that would apply to all pitchers. If that metric were more predictive of future performance than our current best ERA estimators like FIP, then fantasy owners could systematically use it to make better decisions based on pitchers’ adherence to the philosophy of Effective Velocity.
With all the talk about hitters increasing their launch angles, and therefore they fly ball rates, that would mean pitcher fly ball percentages are rising as well. Remember though that unlike for hitters, it’s less black and white as to whether an increased fly ball rate is a good or bad thing. It’s heavily dependent on context, such as the pitcher’s outfield defense and home park. So let’s take a look at which AL starting pitchers have seen their FB% jump most versus last year and determine whether it’s a positive change or not.