The Daily Grind: Special Performances

It seems nobody at MLB.com bothered to video-ize the Phillies five man infield shift. Too bad. The play worked beautifully for a 6-9-3 double play. Philadelphia later lost anyway.

AGENDA

1. Special Performances
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Players to Avoid
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Special Performances

When a scrublord like Tim Beckham hammers two home runs, you better hope the rest of your roster is up to snuff. My winningest day (700X return) came as the result of a two homer game from Brad Miller. This was back in 2014 when multi-homer games didn’t occur multiple times per night. Since it was a small slate, some people will have a version of my Miller story starring Beckham.

There’s no question – getting two home runs from Beckham (or 2014 Miller) was a fluke. You often need flukes to win these big GPPs.

2. Weather Reports

It’s another day to dodge the rain. Nothing is an automatic postponement, but Cincinnati is mighty close. Pittsburgh isn’t looking great either. New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta are at risk too. It’s possible the entire NL East doesn’t play today. Unlikely, but possible.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: We’ve got 13 games tonight and plenty of aces. I’m still not entirely convinced Dallas Keuchel is all the way back. He looks exactly how he looked late last season, except instead of a .304 BABIP and a bad strand rate, he has a .186 BABIP and a 98.7 percent strand rate. I’m expecting a mid-3s ERA going forward. He’s still playable for a quality start and a win – even at $10,700.

Yu Darvish is coming off consecutive strong outings. He’s battled with his command this season. The ceiling is top of the charts. The floor leaves you shorthanded on offense. He’ll face the Mariners.

Stephen Strasburg draws a scrappy but beatable Phillies offense. Yet another ace to consider is Danny Salazar. The Indian is kind of like Lance McCullers in that he usually only throws five or six very valuable innings. He should be spotted some runs opposite Jason Hammel.

Chris Archer is opposed by the half-lineup’ed Blue Jays. When is Josh Donaldson back? Archer has a lower floor than the other aces, but his ceiling is right there with the best of them. A 14 strikeout game is possible when Archer takes the bump.

If aces aren’t your thing, Eduardo Rodriguez may be finally making good on his promise. The fly ball pitcher should benefit from a visit to Target Field where the Green Monster isn’t around to ruin easy fly outs. He’s recorded a 2.70 ERA (4.41 FIP) with 11.96 K/9 and 5.40 BB/9. Lots of regression to unpack there.

Alternatively, Mike Foltynewicz is coming off two strong outings. His velocity remains over a mph below his 2016 numbers. His matchup against St. Louis feels like a lower risk, lower reward version of E-Rod’s pairing.

Andrew Triggs also works in the mid-priced, under-proven basket. He’ll face a few Tigers and a few minor leaguers.

Stack Targets: Tom Koehler, Rafael Montero, German Marquez, Nick Pivetta, Yovani Gallardo, Jesse Chavez, Phil Hughes, Hammel, Chad Kuhl, Jhoulys Chacin, Jimmy Nelson, Zack Greinke

4. Players to Avoid

I’m staying away from Kenta Maeda. He’s posted solid peripherals such that we can expect the good kind of regression. But I want to see a couple decent starts before putting money on him. Even when he’s on, he tends to toss no more than six innings. And he’s been quite off at times this year.

With the way Victor Martinez is hitting, he might be the next Tiger on the disabled list. It’s tempting to use his catcher eligibility on FanDuel, but he’s just not doing anything. SaberSim says he’s the top catcher today although I’m pretty sure it’s broken right now.

Anytime a player hits two home runs, his ownership goes up the next day. Don’t buy into Tim Beckham. He ain’t worth the $2,800.

5. SaberSim Says…

Archer, Darvish, Strasburg, Rodriguez and Francisco Liriano are SaberSim’s favorites. I need more data to change my assessment of Michael Pineda re: his previously terrible fastball. Liriano is a good catch since the Rays are very strikeout prone. Top hitters include Bryce Harper (pending health), Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Joey Votto, and Giancarlo Stanton.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to stardogchampion. A combination of two home runs from Tim Beckham plus a Matt Andriese gem stole the night. The leaderboard is updated.

The last Invitation of the first week of May is on FanDuel.