Bullpen Report: May 4th, 2017
They went to the mop-up guy for today’s Bullpen Report! Filling in for Alan, so let’s talk some relievers.
Washington Stays Confusing
Enny Romero notched his first save of the season with two strikeouts in the ninth. Shawn Kelley is allegedly healthy re: any arm injuries, though a sickness reported a few days back has lingered, but hasn’t pitched since April 29th and allowed runs in each of his last two appearances. Romero is a 26-year old lefty, who throws incredibly hard and flashed swing-and-miss excellence, but holds a reverse platoon split and doesn’t seem like a credible threat to take the role. Washington’s 2017 save leader isn’t on the team yet. By the way, I took a massive L with Blake Treinen. More like Blake Failnen.
Edit: Here is the Washington Post reporting that he is in fact still sick.
Kahnle Kreeping
David Robertson is the assumed target of Washington to fill their closer role with part of that being the assumed poor play of the White Sox making him available in addition to a perfect replacement in Nate Jones. Jones just hit the DL with something called elbow neuritis, but the White Sox would still have an interesting candidate to take over if Robertson were dealt.
Let me first say that the White Sox are 15-12, tied for first in the division and while I’m dubious on their staying power, some things could break right and keep them in it. If Avisail Garcia’s breakout is for real and both Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera get going, then their offense would look a lot better. Plus, they have Yoan Moncada, Reynaldo Lopez, and Lucas Giolito waiting in the wings, one of whom could make a real impact (Sure, more than one could, but the probability of one making a big impact is low enough, let alone two or three going off).
Anyway, the emergent bullpen arm is Tommy Kahnle. Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece on Kahnle’s early season brilliance just a week ago so I do recommend that, but the Cliff’s Notes is that he has newly discovered control of his 98-100 mph fastball with eye-popping results: 53% K, 6% BB, and 18% SwStr rates – all career-bests by far. It’s been 10 innings, but the stuff has always been there so even if he only maintains a 9-10% BB rate, it’ll be a vast improvement for Kahnle.
Anthony Swarzak is also out of his mind with a velo increase and gaudy results to go with it: 36% K, 2% BB, and 21% SwStr rates in 14 innings. There might even be a scenario where Jones returns healthy while both Kahnle and Swarzak prove to be real so they trade Robertson to fortify a contender since they’d still have a devastating trio of arms.
Casilla’s the Guy… for Some Reason
Santiago Casilla logged the save on Thursday, giving him three of the last four for Oakland and five of the seven they have all year. I’m not sure I see the appeal with Casilla, though perhaps Oakland is consciously keeping Ryan Madson and Ryan Dull (as well as Sean Doolittle before his recent shoulder strain) for the middle innings when things are often hairiest and then letting Casilla handle the ninth with a lead.
He’s yet to come in tied or behind while Madson and Dull have done so in nine of their 22 combined appearances. Casilla’s 7% K-BB rate is second-worst among Oakland relievers with at least 10 IP. Casilla and Madson are both 36 and likely trade targets if they’re healthy making Doolittle (also if healthy) and Ryan Dull the long-term targets.
Benoit Blows it in Eighth
Joaquin Benoit blew a save for the Phillies in the eighth of Thursday’s game and so we can’t know if he was going to be a given a two-inning save chance or if Hector Neris was about to get another look. Neris has allowed runs in four of six outings after logging his first save back on April 20th. The coup de grace was a meltdown in LA that included back-to-back-to-back home runs and a total of four runs in just a third of an inning. Neris still has the best skills in that bullpen and should be rostered where available, especially if you’re speculating for saves.
Three I’m Eyeing
Trevor Rosenthal – He’s averaging 99 mph on his fastball, striking out a career-best 47%, and walking a career-low 6% while Seung Hwan Oh sputtered again in his latest outing.
Wandy Peralta – Not for saves as I trust Raisel Iglesias, but just as a high-strikeout supplement. He’s toting a 42% strikeout rate and his 23% swinging strike rate is second to only Jose Leclerc in Texas among relievers with at least 10 IP.
Justin Wilson – I’m a Tigers fan and the bullpens of the last decade or so has taken years off my life.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Shawn Kelley has reportedly been sick the past few days.
I had seen that, but I thought it was a few days old. Maybe I just under-estimated how sick he was/is.
Someday, Matt Bush will get a save opp. I still believe.
My only hope is that when that day comes he isn’t haunted by the mound demons that got Shawn Tolleson (who I kept last year) and Sam Dyson (who I kept this year) and frightened into shitting the bed entirely. Listen closely when he takes the mound and somewhere in the distance you’ll hear Dyson wailing, “Beware……BEWAAAAAARE……”
In all seriousness I was looking Matt Bush’s name on my roster today and literally out loud said, “I WILL CUT YOU” in a pretty aggressive tone.
Bullpen reports is always really helpful, and I’m grateful for the work!
I do however feel like Luke Gregerson is probably not the second guy to look for in that ‘pen. He’s been bad. He gave way to Harris the other night who got the save.
I know he’s been covered on the site quite a bit, but Devo seems like the guy to get regardless of saves (he’s also got one).
Paul, that in mind: could you rank ’em in terms of save potential? (Gregerson, Devo, Harris)
Thanks!
I feel like Gregerson is an odd case because he’s been awesome in 11 of his 14 appearances…. but in the other three, he’s given up ELEVEN runs. He has that “veteran presence/experience” that so many managers love, so I’m not convinced he’s banished from setting up yet, but I am pretty curious to see what A.J. Hinch does next.
Archie Bradley fell completely off the grid? I thought there was a lot of talk of him being next in line given his usage, coming in in a tied 9th this week.
I think the general thought process now is that Bradley is so good in multi-inning relief appearances that he might be kept in that role and come in earlier in close games in the highest leverage role, which often isn’t the same as the closer role, a la Devenski or Andrew Miller. But he might still close if/when The Fernando Rodney Experience finally comes off the rails.
What is the deal with the italics in the table (Familia and Neris are not italicized, and Reed and Benoit are for their teams) – is that supposed to be imparting some information?
I think he was trying to suggest something about the duality of man, sir.
It was a little glitch on our part, and it’s fixed in the latest version and hopefully will remain that way moving forward. Thanks for bringing it to our attention!
LOVE these bullpen reports.
Feel like Archie Bradley is way closer to being a closer than a starter, and will be next in line. He pitched the 8th tonight and got 3 k’s. He pitched into the 9th too and just by looking at the box score, looks like perhaps could have been given the save chance if he didnt give up two hits in a row. Another underrated aspect to him is the SP eligibilty . Lets you load up on high K relievers every night.
Whats up with Hwan Oh? Small sample size or should we worried about him?
Finally, what do you think is going to happen in LAA when Bedrosian comes back. Assuming Norris keeps pitching the way he has been, does Cam still get the job back?
Bradley addressed above, but he might be given a shot to close.
Seung-hwan Oh’s stats are troubling/worrying so far, but we’re definitely still in the SSS area for him and virtually every RP in the MLB right now. That said, that doesn’t give him a pass, because real MLB managers often make decisions based on those SSS’s.
Bedrosian hasn’t even started throwing, so it might be too early to tell. Who knows what Scioscia will do with a healthy bullpen.