Archive for April, 2017

The Daily Grind: The One About A Certain Two-Way Player

Baseball has a knack for unpredictability. The Dodgers 14-3 drubbing of the Padres was the opposite of unpredictable. What’s the word for that… It was very tempting to target other games for your big scores. If you did, there’s a good chance you missed the money. Don’t worry, you have a couple hundred more chances to get it right.

AGENDA

  1. Two-way Star
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Fade Fade Fade
  5. SaberSim Says… (will be included in future episodes)
  6. TDG Invitational

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2017 Bold Pitcher League Leaders

Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that these are a lot tougher to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, but still difficult, of course. Given that there is more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control involved that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is difficult to balance boldness with realistic. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category.

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Bullpen Report: April 3, 2017

Welcome back to another season of the Bullpen Report here at RotoGraphs. As the second day of regular season games come to a close, we felt the need to catch up with you all, run the closer chart, provide some general thoughts about how we will proceed with the chart this season and provide a couple of tidbits of news and analysis from the handful of games already in the books.

With respect to the chart:
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Paul Sporer’s Bold Predictions

They are here and they’re spectacular:

JAMES PAXTON IS A TOP-15 ARM.

I ended up with Paxton slotted at #33 in the March rankings update and by the time I was in the throes of my drafts, I was taking him as high as the late-20s. A 10-15 rank jump at this level would still be significant. Last year, some late-20s arms included Michael Fulmer, Cole Hamels, and Julio Teheran, all of whom had great seasons, but the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Tanner Roark, and Masahiro Tanaka were at the backend of the top-15. Paxton needs to stay healthy for the first time in his career, but the skills are there.

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Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Velocities, Glasnow, Frazier, & May

With the season starting, new useful information will finally become available. Let me know if I can provide any hard to get information in which other analysts aren’t providing. I will continue trying to notice injured players, provide Quick Looks at new/suspect pitchers, give velocity updates, and prospect comparisons. Other writers can provide normal group-think information. Let me know where I can provide that early edge.

The principal shareholder in the Rays, Stuart Sternberg, discussed how finding and developing the new frontiers provides competitive advantages.

Maybe, Sternberg said, it’s by falling behind, taking a lead from companies that follow Starbucks into good locations, copy Apple electronics or make generic drugs.
“I think where the advantage for us is going forward — and it’s going to sound crazy — is to try to allow all, and I will say all, these other organizations to devote enormous resources, and that’s not just money but thinking, brain power and devotion, to things that will have very little payoff, while those resources, brainpower and money might be better spent somewhere else,” he said.

“You build it, you invest all the (research and development), you devote everything you can and like a drug company, I’ll do the generic version for nothing, and I’ll undersell you. And while you’re doing that, I’ll worry about some other stuff over here.

“Everything I’ve seen, it’s an arms race right now, and guys are using elephant guns to kill mosquitoes.”

No matter what the target, the Rays have to find a way to get back ahead.

“There’s always going to be new frontiers,” Bloom said. “If we don’t find them, somebody else will.”

Let me know which frontiers we can explore together.

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Top 10 NL Central Prospects for 2017

Today, we continue our look at the Top 10 prospects for 2017 in each of the six leagues. The lists have been created by blending potential playing time, MLB-readiness and overall skill to take a stab at predicting the most valuable rookies for the coming season. Recently, we reviewed the NL East and the NL West.

Top 10 Prospects for 2017: NL Central

1. Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh: Bell entered the year as the favorite to play everyday at first base for the Pirates in 2017 but a terrible spring (.409 OPS in 43 at-bats) likely shortened his leash and he’ll need to start hitting to keep his spot given his defensive limitations. Veteran first baseman John Jaso remains on-hand in a part-time role but he could easily move in and take the lion’s share of the playing time. Bell has a chance to produce good power and above-average on-base numbers if he can sort out his swing. He remains one of the favorites for Rookie of the Year in the National League.

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The Daily Grind: Opening Day 2.0

It’s ’bout that time, eh chaps? Welcome back to The Daily Grind. If you missed last week’s announcements, there is one major change from last year. This column will focus exclusively on daily fantasy. If you want streaming picks, you’ll have to look elsewhere on the interwebs. (If, specifically, you want MY streaming picks, I recommend trying RotoBaller.com later this morning).

Opening Day included two well fought battles and a soul-soothing drubbing of the Yankees. Today, 12 more teams have their Opening Day, nine in the afternoon and three at night.

AGENDA

  1. Bumbomber
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Fade Fade Fade
  5. SaberSim Says… (will be included in future episodes)
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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2017 Bold Hitter League Leaders

Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders is even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe should be considered bold. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000 (though last year I actually hit one!).

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

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Field of Streams: Episode 251 – That’s How You Know It’s FOS Season

Episode 251 – That’s How You Know It’s FOS Season

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss returning for their fourth season, coming out of Twitter hibernation, changes to the show format, Matt covering the Brewers, the White Sox rebuild, Matt saving up quips for the show, the Padres carrying four catchers, picking against the Royals, the story of the guys that own Twins.com, and Matt quitting smoking.

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Roto Riteup April 2, 2017

We don’t have a lot of stuff to go over, but real baseball is about to be played and that’s all that matters. Tell your loved ones you will see them in October.

 

On the Agenda

  1. Beltre and Gallo
  2. AT&T Parker

Beltre and Gallo

Adrian Beltre will start Opening Day on the disabled list. That means 23-year-old Joey Gallo will get the starting job for the Rangers at third base.

And just like I said to the last guy who asked me out on a date, “no, thank you.”

Gallo has unbelievable power, but that power stays in Triple-A. He hit 25 balls over the fence last season in the minors, but once he was promoted, it was a different scenario. Just one hit in 25 at-bats. I won’t go over the slash line to save you some grief, but his strikeout rate alone (63.3-percent) will talk you out of most fantasy situations. Daily fantasy wise, I would think about it. That’s a lot of raw power to be ignored.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-2017-lottery-ticket-team-hitters-edition/

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