The Daily Grind: Opening Day 2.0

It’s ’bout that time, eh chaps? Welcome back to The Daily Grind. If you missed last week’s announcements, there is one major change from last year. This column will focus exclusively on daily fantasy. If you want streaming picks, you’ll have to look elsewhere on the interwebs. (If, specifically, you want MY streaming picks, I recommend trying RotoBaller.com later this morning).

Opening Day included two well fought battles and a soul-soothing drubbing of the Yankees. Today, 12 more teams have their Opening Day, nine in the afternoon and three at night.

AGENDA

  1. Bumbomber
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Fade Fade Fade
  5. SaberSim Says… (will be included in future episodes)
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Bumbomber

Nothing says Opening Day like a multi-homer game from a pitcher. Let’s turn to the video.

Not to take anything away from Madison Bumgarner’s rare talent, but those were two extraordinarily hittable pitches. Greinke at least knew better than to throw a cookie in the first at bat, when he walked Bumgarner on seven pitches – most of them offspeed. Mistakes were made.

2. Weather Reports

April showers do more than bring May flowers. They also ruin baseball games. Three Opening Days are likely to be spoiled by the wet today. The Tigers-White Sox contest is the most likely to be postponed. There’s an 85 percent chance for rain all afternoon and into the evening. The Phillies-Reds game has a 50 to 75 percent chance of storms, and the Twins are sitting on a 50-60 percent chance for rain.

As always check the reports closer to game time. Last minute changes can create buying opportunities.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

The nine game main slate is made interesting by the weather. Those potential rainouts constitute three of the four 4:10pm starts. The earlier games always draw a little extra attention by virtue of issuing their lineups first. Now they’ll draw nearly all the heat.

Main Slate: Let’s ignore the rain games. There is seemingly a very high chance they’ll be postponed.

That leaves us with all kinds of interesting names. Clayton Kershaw is eminently affordable against the Padres. For $12,600 on FanDuel and $12,800 on DraftKings, I’m very tempted to find room for the best pitcher in baseball. He’s opposed by a morose Padres lineup. He should receive plenty of run support opposite Jhoulys Chacin.

Ace lovers may prefer Noah Syndergaard. He’s even cheaper at $11,100 on FanDuel and $11,600 on DraftKings. His matchup versus the Braves isn’t any more difficult than Kershaw’s assignment. The Mets ought to be careful with their top arm, and we may see that manifest via an early hook.

I’m intrigued by the Blue Jays-Orioles game. Camden Yards inflates offense, but the cool spring weather should partially mitigate the park effects. Perennial breakout candidate Kevin Gausman is opposed by changeup artist Marco Estrada. My money is on Estrada to slowball his way through an aggressive Orioles offense. They’re both risky plays.

Stephen Strasburg and Rick Porcello are also on my “yes please” list.

Stack Targets: Chacin, Junior Guerra, Edinson Volquez

Late Slate: FanDuel isn’t offering a late slate. DraftKings opted to pretend the Indians and Rangers game isn’t happening. I don’t know…

While the name value of the four available pitchers varies, my expectations for actual production are pretty similar. Kendall Graveman is both the cheapest and the highest ceiling in my opinion. I’ve been hearing a lot of hype that this could be the year he takes a BIG step forward. We shall see. Graveman is opposed by Ricky Nolasco who was solid upon joining the Angels. Also, he was terrible for most of the proceeding two and a half years.

The other contest includes Cy Young winners Dallas Keuchel and Felix Hernandez. They both turned into ordinary volume pitchers. The Seattle and Houston offenses are both quite potent. This will probably be the higher scoring game despite the name brand starters and better bullpens.

4. Fade Fade Fade

Let’s discuss a few core performers who won’t be heavily owned in large tournaments. I expect this section to require some refinement.

Stars: At third base, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson could find themselves overshadowed by Nolan Arenado, Jonathan Villar, Justin Turner, and each other. Or perhaps it’ll be Turner who’s widely unused. Of the trio, Turner has the tastiest matchup. He’s also the least talented.

Sometimes, it pays to take a talented hitter with a bad matchup. And if you talk yourself into using Freddie Freeman versus Syndergaard, that is the rationale you will be employing. It’s classic power versus power. Beware, Thor is heavily favored.

Corey Seager’s oblique injury may scare away the savvier DFS players. That only leaves tens of thousands of other entrants whose inclinations are entirely unpredictable.

Some traditional fantasy players avoid Ryan Braun due to perceived injury risk. For DFS purposes, we can ignore what might happen to the player after today. As such, he’s a top 10 bat who may carry an unusually low ownership rate. The Rockies pitching – Jon Gray plus bullpen – isn’t as bad as past seasons. Still, most teams would prefer to call Gray their number three.

Bargains: Jose Reyes bats leadoff, reaches base at a goodly clip, and offers decent pop and speed. Julio Teheran is hardly the aceiest ace of the day.

I’m not a Sandy Leon believer – he did turn pumpkin right in front of everybody – but for $2,100 on FanDuel I’ll take a flier. He’s opposed by Gerrit Cole. Leon’s teammate, Dustin Pedroia, looks like an even smarter play. He’s talented, and he’ll bat at the top of the lineup.

Dansby Swanson has the same difficult matchup as Freeman. As such, he’s bargain priced. The rookie should offer a steady bat with occasional hot and cold streaks. He has the makings of a very stable, mid-tier player.

The big stacks sometimes leave a few players behind. That could happen with Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, or Yasiel Puig today. With so many desirable Dodgers to target, at least one of their outfielders will fall through the cracks. Toles is only $2,000 so I’d actually bet on him being very popular.

5. SaberSim Says…

… to wait until I have access.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Let’s kick off the season on DraftKings. We’ll begin with a $2, 20-user contest. Leaderboards to follow.

If you’re new to DraftKings, signing up via this referral link will get you (and me) $10 for free.

Update: Some people (but not everyone) are having an issue with the contest link. Try incognito mode. If that doesn’t work, message me your username and I’ll manually invite. I still have 7 spots.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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alang3131982member
6 years ago

Your best line ever: “soul-soothing drubbing of the Yankees.” Love it!