Paul Sporer’s Bold Predictions

They are here and they’re spectacular:

JAMES PAXTON IS A TOP-15 ARM.

I ended up with Paxton slotted at #33 in the March rankings update and by the time I was in the throes of my drafts, I was taking him as high as the late-20s. A 10-15 rank jump at this level would still be significant. Last year, some late-20s arms included Michael Fulmer, Cole Hamels, and Julio Teheran, all of whom had great seasons, but the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Tanner Roark, and Masahiro Tanaka were at the backend of the top-15. Paxton needs to stay healthy for the first time in his career, but the skills are there.

KEVIN GAUSMAN STRIKES OUT 200 BATTERS.

Gausman has the tools, but hasn’t quite put them all together for an entire season, but 2017 will be that season. The right-hander throws 95 mph on average and has strong splitter that neutralizes any platoon advantage. He upped his strikeout rate a tick to 23% and a couple more ticks this year will get him to 200 total strikeouts, especially if he adds to last year’s 179.3 innings.

FRANCISCO LIRIANO DOES, TOO.

The walk rate spike that was part of Liriano’s 5.46 ERA with Pittsburgh last year wasn’t a surprise, but the 22% strikeout rate was as his swinging strike rate was still a solid 11%. Pair the walks with a home run twice as high as 2015 and you can see why it was such a disaster. He rebounded with Toronto and former catcher Russell Martin. I expect a rather successful season even in Rogers Centre as Liriano gets back up 200 strikeouts like he had in 2015 (205).

The copout version is to say he’ll have a “200-strikeout pace” as injuries have been a relatively stable part of his career. He has exceeded 165 innings just twice. Even if it is a 150-inning season that only paces toward 200 strikeouts, I’ll be pleased as Liriano’s draft day cost leaves him a wide range of outcomes to return positive value.

CARLOS MARTINEZ POSTS A 2.50 OR BETTER ERA.

This is not based on last night! I finished this list a few days, but I was thrilled to see Martinez go HAM on Opening Night against the Cubs. He was popping 100, though it’s worth noting that they are measuring velocity differently this year which will yield about a +1 mph across the league. Instead of measuring at 50 feet, they are now measuring out of the hand. However they measure it, Martinez sits mid-90s with his fastball, paints with a filthy change, and has a swing-and-miss slider. He is on the ace path and after back-to-back big seasons in 2015-16, I think his 2017 will put him on the map as one of the league’s best pitchers as opposed to “just” his team’s best arm.

MICHAEL WACHA LOGS 200 STRONG INNINGS.

I’ve been a longtime fan of Wacha. He has shown flashes of brilliance in each of his four seasons as a big leaguer. Yes, there was some good during last year’s nightmarish 138 innings that yielded a 5.09 ERA. Staying healthy has been a major challenge with just the one 30-start season in 2015. Even in the face of declining strikeout and swinging strike rates along with rising ERA and WHIP totals, I still see the upside in Wacha. The skills are there and an intact shoulder will allow them to come forth.

BLAKE TREINEN BECOMES A STUD CLOSER.

Eno has loved this guy for a while and I should’ve paid more attention, especially after he called the Sam Dyson in Texas situation a year ago. Treinen might actually be a better version of Dyson with a similarly excellent sinkerball, but also a better swing-and-miss slider. Treinen could be the right-handed Zach Britton is a perfect world scenario, which is essentially what bold predictions are… well, the positive ones at least. Look for Treinen to cut into his walk rate, add to his strikeout rate, and save 40 games in the Washington bullpen.

DELINO DESHIELDS IS THIS YEAR’S JONATHAN VILLAR.

Look at DeShields through last versus Villar through 2015:

Now look at their minor league track records compared:

Note that the minor league numbers are pulled from Baseball-Reference where they have composite lines instead of just the individual seasons. But that meant I couldn’t get the wRC+, though I’m not sure it would be too different if I could. Furthering their similarities, they were both originally products of the Houston system. DeShields moved off the dirt to the outfield while VIllar can play virtually everywhere and Villar is also a switch-hitter, both are factors that made opportunity easier for him to come by last year when injuries struck in Milwaukee, but DeShields will get a chance to show if his Spring Training was a sign of things to come (.323 AVG, 14-for-14 in SBs).

None of Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Gomez, or Jurickson Profar have been the model of health so opportunities will pop up. DeShields is just 24 years old, so it’s not exactly do-or-die in terms of showing something, but last year left many cold on his outlook. The speed is unquestioned and I think the latent pop we saw emerge from Villar is there for DeShields, too.

ADDISON RUSSELL GOES .280-30-100.

Nothing we saw in Russell’s 2016 has dissuaded from thinking he’s a future star. He has the talent to take multiple steps forward in a season which is why I’m once again predicting the breakout. It could end up being gradual and he gets there at age-25, 26, but watching him work his way through two full season has left me impressed and extremely excited about his outlook. He’s continuing to learn how pitchers are trying to get him out and making adjustments in return. Those changes will start to yield more hits so I think his AVG and SLG are the biggest areas of potential gain, though adding 9 HR to his bottom line would be no small feat.

JOC PEDERSON GOES .270-35-20.

I promise this one isn’t influenced by Opening Day, either! If you listen to the podcast or follow me on Twitter, you know I’m a huge Pederson fan. I’m still holding out some hope that his 30 SB per 600 PA from the minors will translate into some major league success. The power is already there so I had to go 35 to be bold, but the .270 would be a 24-point jump and the 20 SBs would be 14 more than last year. He is chiseling down that strikeout rate a little bit and he’ll need to take a bigger step there to get the batting average up, but he clubs the ball and has at least average speed which should help push him to a better than .300 BABIP this year.

MARCELL OZUNA HITS 35 HOME RUNS.

This one is cheating a bit as he was already on pace for 30+ homers deep into June last year when a wrist injury hit late in the month and cost him a couple games. He didn’t go to the DL for it, but it seemed to linger throughout the rest of the season as he went from a .948 OPS before to just a .605 after. He’s healthy again and we get the breakout this year. If they can get some Giancarlo Stanton health, too, that outfield will be insane.