In fantasy auction leagues, among shortstops, many in the top- and middle-tier are either extremely pricey, or risky, or both. There are important question marks about some of the players that should give owners pause before making hefty financial commitments: Can we trust less than a full season of data on Trea Turner and Aledmys Diaz? Are Brad Miller and Jonathan Villar really worth their hefty price tags? Is Troy Tulowitzki just OK now, and can he stay healthy? Is this the year Addison Russell breaks out offensively?

If you don’t want to spend a fortune on one of the very best shortstops, it may be worth considering some of the names at the bottom. Among those are two shortstops who quietly had breakout campaigns in 2016.

Elvis Andrus has had a very strange career. He burst onto the scene as a 20-year-old rookie in 2009, and helped the Rangers win back-to-back American League pennants in 2010 and 2011. Andrus’ elite defense and contact skills earned him an 8-year, $120M contract with Texas in 2013, despite the fact that at the time of the signing Andrus had just an 87 wRC+ and .314 wOBA in his career. After he signed the contract, Andrus had just a 78 wRC+ and .292 wOBA from April 2013 through the end of the 2015 season.

However, in 2016, things changed in a big way. Andrus batted .302/.362/.439 with a 112 wRC+ and .344 wOBA. It was his first wRC+ above 97 and his first slugging percentage above .378. His .136 ISO was also a career high, easily surpassing his previous high mark of .099. The following tables help explain Andrus’ breakthrough season: Read the rest of this entry »

Luck, as Branch Rickey famously observed, is the residue of good fortune, and it seems to us that a lot of what we Fantasists do amounts to determining who’s been lucky and who hasn’t. This is the stock-in-trade of one genre of preseason Fangraphs article that we, for two, are suckers for: Player A, the article will assert, had bad (or good) Fantasy-relevant numbers last season, but a massage of those numbers or an examination of more granular stats suggests that his performance wasn’t as bad as (or was worse than) his Fantasy outcomes.

The closer look or the more granular stats, the article will continue, reflect the guy’s true performance, whereas the Fantasy numbers are artifactual, and largely produced by the guy’s luck. Since luck evens out, the article will conclude, the guy will do better (or worse) than people who haven’t looked closely at the numbers think, and will be worth more (or less) than the market thinks he is.

One of our relatively accurate forecasts of our rather pitiful 2016 season derived from this approach. At mid-season, we opined that Danny Salazar (first half ERA: 2.75) would decline sharply thereafter, whereas Carlos Rodon (first half ERA: 4.50) would improve significantly. And so it turned out. We reached these conclusions by asking: which starting pitchers, if any, were in the highest (i.e. worst) quartile of Batting Average on Balls in Play and Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio, and in the bottom (i.e. best) quartile of Hard-Hit Ball Percentage?

And which starters, conversely, were in the lowest quartile of BABIP and HR/FB and the top quartile of HH%? Our reasoning wasn’t abstruse: if a guy’s not getting hit hard, and yet is giving up a disproportionate number of hits and home runs, maybe he’s been unlucky, and if his only problem is that he’s been unlucky, maybe his luck will change. And, on the other hand, maybe the luck of a guy who’s getting hit hard but doesn’t yet have the scars to show for it will run out. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday’s post about delinquency was supposed to be today’s post about too many keepers. But first, I have some business to finish from yesterday. As I mentioned, three owners failed to select their keepers, one had yet to pay, and one couldn’t make the draft. My one day extension was enough for two of the owners to make their keeper picks. That leaves the guy who hasn’t paid and can’t draft. So it’s time to replace him.

I’m accepting short applications for his spot. Must have qualifications include an ability to pay $40 via PayPal (not Venmo) by end of today, willingness to select keepers by the end of today, and availability for the auction draft on Monday, March 13 at 7pm ET. It won’t hurt your application if you’re an active, successful fantasy player. I will select the person with whom I want to play by early afternoon.

Update: Thank you for your applications. I will be in touch with the winner shortly.

Onto today’s business…

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3/6/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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No need to fret. The unofficial conductor, who is also the author of this post, does not expect the cabin to reach capacity. Not prior to April, at least.

Brett Lawrie’s time with any organization, not just the White Sox, was ticking away; more writing was scribbled on more walls with each passing year since his debut. So when the White Sox released Lawrie, the first thought on most fantasy owners’ minds was not Where will Lawrie end up? but, rather, When will Yoan Moncada get the call? Moncada, a consensus top-5 prospect, changed socks and is now the marquee name of the South Side’s now-promising future.

Yet one could argue Moncada’s not quite ready for the big show. After raking and running absolutely wild in High-A in 2016, Moncada graduated to Double-A and, well, his performance is open to interpretation. On one hand, his 11 home runs, nine stolen bases and .277/.379/.531 triple-slash in 207 plate appearances amounted to a batting line that was more than 50% better than the league. On the other hand, he struck out more than 30% of the time — and that lack of contact carried over into his Major League debut, during which he struck out in 12 of 20 PAs. The tools are immense, but, at 21, he could definitely use some polish, and the White Sox have no incentive to rush him along.

Allow me to (re)introduce you to Tyler Saladino.

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It’s hard to believe this is my fourth season writing these monthly tiered rankings for second base. As the old adage goes, time flies when you’re forming position-specific tiers of real baseball players for fake baseball purposes.

A clear trend that formed over the last three years of writing this column is that second base keeps getting deeper and deeper. While there are elite options at the position, the list of players that I would be okay with rostering is plenty long.

With this in mind, I decided to implement a new feature to my tiers this year, motivated by a piece I wrote on Yahoo’s average auction prices a couple weeks ago. By including this data, I hope to help you identify where hidden value lies at the position. Whether your league does an auction or a traditional draft, understanding how your fellow owners value players is vital to any preseason preparation.

Without further ado, here are your preseason second-base tiers for 2017. As always, if you disagree with my rankings — or if I missed anyone who should be ranked — feel free to sound off in the comments section. (For reference, I’m using Yahoo’s position eligibility requirements).

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I have been researching the 3rd and 4th starting pitching tier. I’m trying to find a few facts to help differentiate the pitchers in this group. Using five print publications, here are the projected ranges for Jharel Cotton, Robert Gsellman, and Rick Porcello

The projections agree on Porcello’s talent. They are almost eerily similar. That is not the case with the other two.

Throwing out the projected innings, which will be more of a guess with these two, the differences in the other two are eye opening. I know both Cotton and Gsellman broke out last season but I’m still a surprised by the large range.

I compared these projections to my personal projections (1/3 of each Pods Projections, our Depth Chart, and BHQ projections – each projection updates playing time which I find important). My projection sits right in the middle for the ranges.

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Over a two-week span, I’m going to be reviewing 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves in Major League Baseball — and help your fantasy squad — in 2017. Last week, I took a look at the 12 hitters (Part 1, Part 2) and today I’ll be reviewing the first six arms.

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Today’s post was supposed to be about the weird keeper position I find myself in my home league. That will have to wait until tomorrow because three owners failed to select their keepers. One of them has yet to pay. I’m grumpy about it, but I decided to put off being really grumpy until tomorrow. I’ve extended the deadline one day.

Some people legitimately enjoy running leagues. I am not one of those people. I commissioned at least one league every year since I was 12, mostly on Yahoo. My so-called home league – which features only three of the original owners including a guy who left and came back – is the only one I run now. I’ve been trying to offload it for years. Every year, my patience for cat herding dwindles.

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A little over a week ago I did a draft with some industry folks representing Fangraphs (Rotographs) on FantasyPros. Some of the more identifiable names in the league include Al Melchior and Jim Sannes, and ultimately we did a 10-team draft with FanDuel scoring.

What’s FanDuel scoring? Have a peek:

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