We have been blessed with many outstanding rookie seasons throughout the history of baseball, especially in recent decades. Ichiro Suzuki crossed the Pacific and instantly turned into a super star. Mike Trout, well, he did Mike Trout things. We’ve seen Mike Piazza, Britt Burns, and Troy Tulowitzki all put up 7 WAR rookie campaigns. Each of these stories are amazing in their own right, but they are all about guys with truly phenomenal rookie seasons. Emphasis on season. Gary Sanchez, well, he was just a little bit different.

Gary Sanchez put up similar power numbers to a lot of those guys I just mentioned, he hit 20 home runs and 12 doubles, not too shabby for a rookie.  That isn’t the story here, of course.  No, he did this all in less than half a season, 229 plate appearances.  Closer to a third of a season, really, and in that time he put up over 3 WAR and made a strong case for the league ROY (and MVP, which lead to many silly arguments).

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On Monday, Scott Strandberg wrote that everybody is paying too much for Jose Peraza. The statement is based on NFBC ADP which has him going a round or two earlier than what I’ve seen in expert mocks. I wonder if it’s just the NFBC crowd that’s paying too much.

Scott makes good points, although I have some counter arguments. Peraza is going before high floor second basemen like Ben Zobrist, Logan Forsythe, and Neil Walker. Seemingly, you should pass on Peraza and take a vet, right? No, you should (probably) take both.  At least, that’s how I build my rosters.

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Though we grew up, and still reside, in the Northeast, we’re not winter sports guys. How much are we not? Well, there’s this Olympic event called the biathlon that combines Nordic skiing and rifle shooting. One of us—we’re not saying which one—was in his twenties before he realized that cross-country skiing, which he’d seen though not tried, and “Nordic skiing,” which he’d never seen, were the same thing. And that very brother was thirty before he learned, aggrievedly, that the two activities of the biathlon don’t occur simultaneously.

So each winter, all our sentient lives, we’ve yearned for the first sign of spring. And for us, even when up to our navels in snow, the traditional first sign has been the commencement of baseball spring training in February. Except, for the past three years, since the start of our mutual immersion in Fantasy baseball, that welcome harbinger has come even earlier—in January, in the form of our first Fantasy draft of the season.

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On Monday, I introduced my new Statcast fueled batter xHR/FB rate, adjusted for home park, and then yesterday, I shared a list of six batters with significant HR/FB rate upside for 2017, given the gap between their 2016 xHR/FB rate and actual HR/FB rate. Today I’ll discuss 10 hitters with major downside.

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This past weekend saw the release of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, including a show on MLB Network highlighting the Top 50. Andrew Benintendi was named their #1 overall prospect, a fact that’s sure raise his price some in the draft market, especially after Keith Law ranked him the same last week. Back in December, our own Trey Baughn gave him the top spot in his fantasy prospects list and CBS slotted him 2nd in a similar list focusing on fantasy impact.

I’m a little torn on Benintendi for 2017. On the one hand, he’s an advanced college bat who blitzed through the minors in 151 games and acquitted himself very well in a 34-game sample at the majors. On the other, he’s going into his age-22 season with a whopping 118 PA under his belt and that first six-month grind has a way of punching players in the face at some – or multiple points – throughout the season. But then back on the first hand, we know from Jeff Zimmerman that aging curves are moving up so maybe Benintendi is ready to be an impact bat already.

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When it comes to the third base position, we already know a lot of what to expect in 2017. In a sense, we largely know who will reside at the top and serve as an upper tier fantasy asset, while it’s also relatively apparent who can provide steady production at the position as a secondary choice in upcoming drafts. It’s almost somewhat black and white in a sport that is almost never just black and white.

But beyond my incessant rambling, there’s the “first full year” factor (note: I referred to him as a rookie multiple times because I lacked coffee and common sense this morning), something that you can just barely adequately prepare for. In this case, though, there’s one predominant exception: Alex Bregman. The Houston Astros product figures to be an intriguing option as that first-full-year guy that folks will be all over in the early rounds of drafts. A lot of that is justified, but any time you’re talking about a player coming into his first full season in the big leagues, there is at least some reason for a certain level of apprehension.

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We are at a low point in the offseason where there isn’t much usable fantasy news. I was able to find a few pieces of relevant news and gave a quick review of a book I just finished.

Notes

• Carrie Muskat of MLB.com provides her best guess on the Cubs lineup.

LF Schwarber; 3B Kris Bryant; 1B Rizzo; 2B Zobrist; SS Addison Russell; RF Heyward; C Willson Contreras; P Starting pitcher; CF Jay or Almora.

Maddon says he’s considering having the pitcher bat eighth again to give Schwarber more RBI opportunities. The manager wanted the “geeks” in the baseball operations department to go over the numbers. Schwarber leading off isn’t as crazy as it might seem. He’s one of the best in terms of on-base percentage.

Two thoughts. With Schwarber leading off, he will have a Run/RBI ratio near 1.65 (league average). Steamer projects him for a ratio of 1.07 Run/RBI. Owners must remember this new ratio if they want to keep their RBIs and Runs balanced.

Additionally, she predicts Contreras will hit before the pitcher and then one of the light hitting outfielders. This placement will kill his run scoring opportunities. He may get a good number of RBI chances as long as the other team doesn’t walk him to face the pitcher.

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Last year I posted an article summarizing the keeper results for all ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, and now that the ottoneu keeper deadline has come and gone once again I am back with an update.

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On Monday, I introduced my new Statcast fueled batter xHR/FB rate, adjusted for home park. Let’s finally get to the part you have been eagerly awaiting — the potential 2017 home run surgers. These are the guys whose xHR/FB rates far exceeded their actual HR/FB rates.

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