Corey Seager recorded just 113 MLB plate appearances in 2015, but he made a big splash with his performance and the lack of a track record didn’t stop the RotoGraphs ranking crew from placing him fifth among shortstop in the preseason. I was even more bullish, as my projections valued him as the second best shortstop! Seager ultimately finished fourth according to our end of season dollar values (fifth if including Jean Segura), but that probably undersells him, as he was just as good as hoped for.

Let’s recap my 2016 Pod Projection and see how my forecasts compared to his actual results.

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11/15/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Manager of the Year Discussion (0:30)

Leading Off: Question of the Day

• Should any of the QO decliners have accepted? (18:00)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Jeremy Hellickson and Neil Walker accept QO (20:30)
• Danny Valencia traded to SEA (38:00)
• Kendrys Morales signs w/TOR (46:20)
• J.D. Martinez trade talks w/SF (52:00)

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I’m running a little behind on my top 15s to keep up with Brad’s “Way Too Early” rankings, so I’ll be looking to get 2B and 3B out this week, and maybe even SS.

• Starting Pitchers Part 1, Part 2
• First Base

The middle infield positions really saw some of the biggest gains in 2016 thanks to the leaguewide power surge. I thought the position ran pretty deep in last year’s drafts, but I think it’s even deeper now. I’m only rolling out 15 here and there are another 10 I’d be OK slotting in as my starting 2B, let alone putting them at the MI slot. Yes, the upper tier is obviously better, but after that it really starts to cluster.

Let’s just get into it!

Jose Altuve | Astros – I’m coming out firing with big surprises at the top, eh? Altuve showed that the 2015 power jump wasn’t a fluke by adding to it. He nearly doubled his HR/FB rate and popped 24 homers, more than he had the past two seasons combined (22). There was a cost, though. His stolen bases dropped for the second straight season, including a major falloff in the second half which seemed to be tied to his move into the third spot of the lineup.

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I’ll lead with a series of questions: What’s the preferred way to analyze a mock draft? Would you rather read about the writer’s breakdown for his or her specific draft results? Or breakdowns by position? Of each owner’s team?

I plan to take the former-most approach here in regard to the Too Early (#2Early) Mock Draft, as curated by Justin Mason and graciously hosted by Couch Managers. A 15-team slow draft that began as soon as the season ended, I did not hesitate to vocalize my discomfort in drafting, even in the spirit of mockery, with absolutely zero planning.

Alas, that’s the fun of the Too Early mock (or so David Wiers tried to convince me): just wing it. Or see what happens.

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This is the fifth edition of a continuing series. If you missed the previous rounds, last week’s post on third basemen also has links to the other positions. Yesterday, we reviewed what happened in 2016 including the surprising discovery that Corey Seager’s lack of stolen bases put him a full tier behind the top of the class.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

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Entering 2016, Marcus Semien was shrouded in uncertainty. After a strong offensive start to 2015, his renewed focus on defense in the second half drew acclaim from many around the league, though it appeared to coincide with a massive two-month slump during which he hit .199/.246/.281 and left the yard just twice.  He also stopped running, or at least stopped running well. He stole just two bases during that stretch while being thrown out thrice.

As such, Semien entered 2016 a popular pick by some as a potential power-speed breakout candidate. However, his floor, due in large part to his dilettantish defensive rep and contact woes, felt uncertain and low. Which Semien were fantasy owners going to get? The 20-20 threat we saw through the first two months of the season, the defensively-focused but offensively-hapless work-in-progress, or the well-rounded and powerful young shortstop who put it all together at the end?

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For some reason, I never published a Pod’s Picks and Pans for third base. Perhaps to save myself some extra embarrassment? These haven’t exactly gone so well this year. Putting myself back in the face of potential ridicule, let’s take a look back at my Pod’s Picks & Pans at shortstop. Yesterday, we published the shortstop rankings and dollar values, which the actual rankings are taken from.

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Positional Scarcity and Shortstops

Today at RotoGraphs, we start examining shortstops. At First Pitch Arizona, experts were stating that position scarcity is not an issue in 2017 except with catcher. Owners might think they don’t need to pay extra for filling their shortstop position and they can just get the best hitting talents. This statement is true for some leagues and for others, it is completely false. Scarcity depends entirely on each league’s individual settings. The two main factors which can make a league play differently are the required roster positions and the stats counted.

As for a position comparison, our own Ottoneu requires three middle infield spots and only two corner spots. Corner infielders are in less demand than in these leagues with three corner spots. Additionally, owners are usually complaining about the catcher options, but in my 20-team industry and local AL-only leagues, they require only one catcher. Some catcher options exist on the waiver wire. If the required number was two, catcher values would skyrocket.

The other difference is the stats counted. In normal roto leagues, stolen bases are a category and they give shortstops a huge value boost. In a linear weights league, the value of stolen bases becomes non-existent and then positional scarcity exists for shortstops.

If you want to read some detailed look at calculating position scarcity value, read the links at the beginning of this article by our own Mike Podhozer.

Trevor Story: 2017 Projection Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Trea Turner (SS): It took a little time for the Nationals’ veteran-loving manager to agree to give Turner a shot but once the freshman received the opportunity he never looked back (although it wasn’t even at his natural position of shortstop). The 13th overall selection in the 2014 draft was a real spark plug for the playoff contender by producing a .342 average with 33 steals in just 73 games. He also showed unexpected pop by hitting 13 homers in the Majors and six in the minors (after never hitting more than five in a season). Turner should be a top-of-the-order threat and mainstay in center field for the foreseeable future in Washington.

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In reality, Corey Seager was indisputably the top shortstop of 2016. Fantasy is not reality. It’s axiomatic. We value things in our fantasy world, like stolen bases, that just aren’t very important in the real universe. I think you probably know where I’m going with this – Seager is not the top shortstop because he didn’t steal bases. Those things are important. I’d argue it’s doubly important for your middle infielders to be base thieves.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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