The #2Early Mock Draft: One Man’s Review

I’ll lead with a series of questions: What’s the preferred way to analyze a mock draft? Would you rather read about the writer’s breakdown for his or her specific draft results? Or breakdowns by position? Of each owner’s team?

I plan to take the former-most approach here in regard to the Too Early (#2Early) Mock Draft, as curated by Justin Mason and graciously hosted by Couch Managers. A 15-team slow draft that began as soon as the season ended, I did not hesitate to vocalize my discomfort in drafting, even in the spirit of mockery, with absolutely zero planning.

Alas, that’s the fun of the Too Early mock (or so David Wiers tried to convince me): just wing it. Or see what happens.

I don’t consider myself much of a mock drafter nor a mock draft analyzer. But this draft was a lot of fun and was littered with what, at the time, were utterly fascinating picks. And they still are, I presume. With scant average draft position (ADP) position to benchmark the picks, this mock offers an interesting view into how the draft landscape might look in March.

This is primarily a parade of many names I’ll likely end up targeting throughout my 2017 drafts with accompanying words of wisdom/foolishness. If that’s not your jam, be warned that this may bore you. But you can check out the draft results, with positional breakdowns, here.

The specs: 15 teams, two catchers, three bench; otherwise standard format. Snake draft. Team Alex Chamberlain landed the No. 10 slot.

1.10 Max Scherzer SP #2
I don’t think I’d ever take a pitcher not named Clayton Kershaw in the first round of a draft. But I did so here to (1) do something different and, more importantly, (2) make a point. And that point is: Scherzer has finished among the top-10 on ESPN’s Player Rater at least the last two years. Before ESPN changed the URL to its Player Rater and I was able to check results prior to 2015, I could tell you that I’m preeettttyyyy sure Scherzer achieved the feat in 2014, too, which would make three straight years of top-10 value from the National. So, again: Scherzer at 10th, not because I wanted to but because I should want to. Making a point. Bookmark it.

2.21 Joey Votto 1B #4
A perfectly defensible pick, although this begins an arguably troubling trend of drafting old dudes.

3.40 Ryan Braun OF #13
Braun represents the tail end of the quote un-quote elite outfield options. (Andrew McCutchen followed right behind him. I think there will be a lot of discussion about where his value truly lies. Unsolicited opinion: I’m bearish, because Cutch’s decline has left breadcrumbs for a couple of seasons now.) I think Braun still leaves a bad taste in some owners’ mouths regarding his truncated 2013 and disappointing 2014 seasons. Fact is he’s one of the few guys who fills all five categories admirably.

4.51 Jonathan Lucroy C #2
I’ve honestly never played or even pretended to play in a two-catcher league, so I didn’t want to mess around. I wanted to grab a bona fide stud that could generate value at any position, not just catcher. No below-replacement-level crap. Might be a bit of a reach, but I have faith in my late-round abilities to make sure this doesn’t hurt too much. (FYI: Gary Sanchez went 71st overall; Willson Contreras, 94th.)

5.70 Jose Bautista OF #21
Impressive what some DL time and being 36 can do to your draft stock. Bautista posted a 27-homer pace along with a career-best hard-hit rate. Even though he’s old, I think it’s a bit too early to write Mr. Bats off in a big way. Depending on whom you ask, in 2015 he finished among the top 30 (ESPN) or as high as the top 12 (Razzball) overall. His plate discipline is morphing — fewer swings outside the zone but also less contact outside, ultimately netting out in his overall contact rate — but given his batted ball peripherals still look rock solid, I’ll gladly take a chance on the upside.

6.81 Jose Ramirez SS #8
Here begins the official Jose Ramirez 2017 Campaign Trail / Propaganda Machine. But I don’t know if it needs much help from me: he went 86th and 99th in two NFBC drafts at First Pitch Arizona two weekends ago. So while I thought I was “making a point again,” it turns out I may have just been grabbing Ramirez at his market price. I feel like a proud father.

7.100 Anthony Rendon 3B #12
Full disclosure: I autodrafted here. My bad. But it could have been much worse. In fact, this wasn’t bad at all. It’s crazy to think Rendon might actually be more valuable at third base rather than second base. He’s nothing spectacular, but as the 12th third baseman off the board, I can’t complain. And I can always dream on that 2014 upside — which, the more closely I look, really isn’t all that different from his most recent campaign.

8.111 Matt Kemp OF #28
Kemp finished among the top-20 outfielders last year. Take a look at his 2016 caption on his player page and you’ll see I anticipated 30-homer power. The stolen bases evaporated, but it didn’t matter. I’d like to see them come back, but he’s a good a bet as anyone to at least pay back his draft slot. Yes, please lambast me for his woeful defense and on-base percentage. Assuming this is a standard league, though (hilarious that I don’t know exactly the format — a beautiful mock, indeed), OBP doesn’t matter, so shove that argument where the sun don’t shine!

9.130 Kenta Maeda SP #33
This definitely aligns more closely with my typical draft strategy, which, I don’t know, is maybe the LIMA Plan? But for me, it’s more like one ace, one or two mid-range dudes, and three or four or five $1 starters. There’s plenty of turnover at every position, and starting pitcher is no exception. We see rookies surge from nowhere as well as veterans fall from their perches. If I can keep my rotation cheap, I’ll feel less awful dropping someone for a waiver wire claim — and all the more awesome when he becomes a thrifty lottery pick that pays off, whether it’s in a redraft or keeper/dynasty league. But, uh, back to Maeda: he finished in the top 20 last year, and he doesn’t have the tenuous peripherals that make him risky like so many other trendy starting pitcher picks I’ve seen in the early goings. (In this draft specifically: Lance McCullers and Carlos Rodon.)

10.141 Justin Turner 3B #16
Pretty sure I physically fist-pumped at this pick. Got him after Maikel Franco, Jung-ho Kang, Eduardo Nunez. The latter-most fellow is a worthy lottery pick based on his absolutely wild 2016 season, but Turner is the real deal and, in my opinion, is more reliable than the former two. Ironically, I think I like him more than Rendon. It is what it is.

11.160 Yasmani Grandal 3C #9
With A.J. Ellis out of town, Grandal figures to fall into even more playing time, unless the Dodgers finally (wisely) give Austin Barnes some damn respect. I like Grandal more than Wilson Ramos and Salvador Perez, both of whom went earlier than Grandal. Got him right in Brian McCann and Russell Martin territory, too, so he feels like a relative bargain at this point. And I no longer have to worry about clamoring to fill the second catcher slot with garbage.

12.171 Aaron Nola SP #45
This is only the first among probably a hundred times I’ll tout Nola this offseason. Dude recorded the 4th-best xFIP among starting pitchers, min. 100 innings. And y’all are scared of the completely unsustainable strand rate that completely ravaged his ERA. Truthfully, I understand concerns about his elbow that resigned him to the disabled list for the rest of the season after a handful of horrific starts. But I think you can’t find any known commodity (aka not the unheralded rookies that broadside us every yaer) with higher upside than Nola. And I might have taken him too early; hearkening back to the NFBC drafts to which I linked earlier, Nola went in the 13th and 17th rounds. I think you’ll have plenty of time to grab him. Just don’t wait too long.

13.190 Victor Martinez DH #3
V-Mart wound back the clock to 2014 by crushing another 27 home runs. Unfortunately, he exhibited the worst plate discipline of his career, resulting in his worst batting average in a qualified season since his first full season way back in 2004. The ageless wonder may be officially in his decline phase — I promise I won’t love you any less, Victor — but if he can belt another 20 home runs and hit close to .300, I’ll take that production, even if it “clogs” my utility slot. Surprisingly, there’s upside here. But, again, this is yet another old dude. Votto, Braun, Kemp, Bautista, Martinez — they’re all fantasy stalwarts, but they’re standing at the precipice. It’s just hard to tell how far each of them stands from the edge.

14.201 Raisel Iglesias RP #18
Whether Iglesias sticks as Cincinnati’s closer or becomes a starting pitcher (which would make him the 54th starter off the board), I’m absolutely thrilled. No matter his role, he carries massive upside.

15.220 Alex Colome RP #20
I don’t like to take relievers early because there is so. Much. Attrition. Outside of a couple of super-reliable closers, the 9th-inning landscape is a nightmare no matter the year. That I grabbed Colome, a legit top-10 relief arm last year, as the 20th closer off the board delights me. Whether or not you’re skeptical of a repeat, I got him at a price that makes the gamble highly worthwhile.

16.231 James Paxton SP #60
Gambling on another xFIP darling. Ranked in the top 10, min. 100 innings. Depends on how much stock you put in his inflated batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

17.250 Hector Neris RP #25
Assuming he permanently usurps the role in the spring. He’s a top-20 bullpen strikeout arm but without the control issues of Craig Kimbrel, Kyle Barraclough, David Phelps, Tyler Grilli, and Ryan Buchter. Neris flashed this brilliance in 2015 without the fanfare or impressive results, so it’s likely he can repeat. He’d be a top-15 closer. Again, finding high-probability upside.

18.261 Rajai Davis OF #63
I’ll let this Tweet (disclaimer: it’s my Tweet) speak on my behalf.

19.280 Tyler Anderson SP #83
And yet another xFIP darling. He’s a top-30 xFIP, min. 100 innings. You heard it here first (or second or eighth): Tyler Anderson and Jon Gray are Colorado’s best pitchers outside of Ubaldo Jimenez since the turn of the millennium. If you’re scared of Coors Field, I’ll gladly scoop them up. I actually like Anderson more than Gray because his ground ball tendencies mitigate the risk of the aforementioned concerns associated with the thin Denver air. Either way, I’m jazzed about this pick. Given all the names that went before him — Jeff Samardzija, Junior Guerra, Ivan Nova, Chris Tillman, Ervin Santana… the list goes on — I’m once again jazzed about the upside here.

20.291 Eugenio Suarez SS #22
He’s a top-20 shortstop. I’ll take the ample power and speed and hope Suarez can bounce back to an above-average BABIP.

21.310 Matt Shoemaker SP #90
You’re probably tired of hearing xFIP, but: Shoemaker posted the 47th-best xFIP in 2016, and that includes his absolutely horrific start to the season. Once he figured out his splitter situation, Shoemaker excelled despite his troubling fly ball tendencies. If he erodes again, that’s fine — I didn’t overpay at this point, and I have a chance to capture the magic that Shoemaker flaunted all summer.

22.321 Josh Harrison 2B #22
Like Suarez, Harrison is an unexciting pick. But he should easily generate top-20 value. With power aplenty, I’ll gladly collect on extra stolen bases that come with a robust batting average.

23.340 Alex Dickerson OF #82
I had to make good on my first unofficial sleeper for 2017. I compared Dickerson to Kyle Seager, who went 52nd overall in this draft. I guess that would give Dickerson top-100 upside or something like that. Like many of the guys I drafted, I think the probability he hits his upside is much higher than most other lottery picks.

24.351 Mike Montgomery SP #105
25.370 Jeremy Hellickson SP #111
26.381 Mike Foltynewicz SP #116
This is where I started (and finished) autodrafting. A little diddly about each:

I wrote about Montgomery and his legitimately elite ground ball skills. I’d have to verify this with a little more legwork than my fatigued fingers wish to carry out, but I’m certain that no other pitcher has three pitches, let alone Montgomery’s five pitches, that generate ground balls more than 50 percent of the time. He’s an unrefined product, but he’s certainly an interesting fellow; for all of the sabermetric community’s love for extreme ground ball dudes, Montgomery has not earned much adoration. Theo Epstein essentially ceded the No. 5 starter role to Montgomery by not exercising the Cubs’ option on Jason Hammel. Barring a major offseason move, there shouldn’t be much concern about job security or opportunity, at least to start the season.

I also wrote about Hellickson and how he started spotting his change-up more effectively. A large part of my doubts he repeats, but as the 370th pick, why the hell not?

Folty is my one true dart throw. He improved his ground ball rate in 2016 and posted a 3.17 strikeout-to-walk rate (K/BB). Not bad. Probably could’ve queued up a prospect or something, but it’s fine. It is what it is.

* * *

TL;DR summary of my strategy: target arguably underrated old dudes and underappreciated young pitchers; and invest more heavily in bats than arms. I achieved this goal, and, for once, I’m very pleased with how everything turned out. I consider myself perceptibly worse as snake drafts compared to auctions, so I’ll chalk this up as a success.

Other industry folks who participated include Justin, David, Ryan Bloomfield, Mike Werner, Matt Thompson, Justin Klein, Sky, Scott Bogman, Phil Naessens, Ralph Lifshitz, and the mysterious The Welsh. Apologies to those I missed.

Penny for your thoughts?