Last month, I put up my early pitcher rankings and I’m going to go position-by-position along with Brad’s “Way Too Early” series starting with first basemen. I’ll circle back to catchers at the end since he already did his two weeks ago. I usually put my initial lists together in preparation for my trip to First Pitch Arizona coming up later this week where I compete in the first half of a 50-round draft and hold NFBC league. Jason and I will actually be doing a live episode of the podcast at the same time of the draft this year so I won’t be able to participate, but I’ll share my first run of rankings instead.

(I’m including a couple DHs because there aren’t enough DH-only guys for their own set of rankings unlike 2016)

Paul Goldschmidt | Diamondbacks – He’s still the best of the bunch as one of the few 5-category first basemen in the game. His career-high 32 SBs this year gave him his fourth season of at least 15 SBs in the last five. It likely would’ve been 5-for-5 had he not missed the last two months of 2014 with injury. Goldy was hitting .223 through the first 40 games of this season, but no one seemed to bat an eye as it was tied to an uncharacteristically low BABIP of just .258, nearly 100 points lower than his .356 career mark.

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Sometime between mid June and late July of 2015, something clicked for Daniel Murphy.  He transformed from a career singles hitter into a monster at the plate. He now threatens the defense with elite contact skill, pull power, gap to gap line drives, and an uncanny knack for slap hits.  He’s an all around threat at the plate, capable of out thinking some of the best pitchers in the game, breaking defensive shifts with slap hits, and pulling even great pitches for home runs. Murphy is difficult to pitch to or defend against, and as a result he’s been one of the best hitters in the game for the past year and a half.  This is a remarkable transformation, and very few people could have predicted just how great he has become.

There are a few things you need to know about this guy. For one, he’s a bit weird. I’ve watched just about every game he’s played since his rookie season back in 2008, and I feel like after watching this guy for a few years you see a little bit of everything.  Some of the most bizarre displays I’ve seen on a baseball field have included this guy in some manner or another.  I vividly remember the first defensive play he made in the major leagues, and I’m sure you can guess what happened, judging by his defensive reputation.  He whiffed a routine ground ball, slammed his glove on his knee, and then faked a throw to first base.  Just kidding. You might want that to have been his first play, because it’s fitting, but in reality he made a miracle leaping grab in left field that left most of the fans and broadcasters speechless. Oh, and he turned it into a double play, because of course he would.  Clearly, that sort of defensive play did not become his norm.

Through all of the ups and downs of Murph’s defensive woes, between the miracle spin-o-ramas, throwing to the wrong base, blind behind the back tosses and balls rolling through the wickets. Through everything fans have marveled and endured while watching him play, one thing has remained constant:  his elite ability to put bat to ball.

This is not the story of a player who got lucky or significantly changed his skill set at a relatively advanced stage in his career.  It is very tempting to paint that picture if you only casually watched his performance through the years.  Yes, he used to be a high average, no power guy.  Now he is an even higher average guy with power.  It’s weird.  Daniel Murphy is weird. But this isn’t about a change of skill set, this is about neuroticism. In order to understand his story you need to thoroughly understand his oddities, because they play a big part in his career trajectory. Read the rest of this entry »

Presently, you are reading the third part of a continuing series, the title of which can be found above this paragraph. Catchers and first baseman were already covered. Yesterday, we peered into the misty past to evaluate 2016 performances at second base.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments.

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Yesterday, we published the final 2016 second base rankings and dollar values. So let’s review my preseason Pod’s Picks and Pans at the position, where I identified those second base qualified hitters I was most bullish and bearish on compared to the rest of my fellow RotoGraphs rankers.

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Regardless of the events that transpire on Wednesday night in Cleveland, the evening will conclude with a 2016 Champion of Major League Baseball being crowned. The elation that one club and its fans will experience with an extensive drought ending will only be matched in its intensity by the devastation felt by the club and the fans on the other side at seeing their own drought continue. As such, I would be remiss if I didn’t touch on and reflect on the third base matchup that the evening will entail.

Game 7 will feature the overwhelming favorite for the National League Most Valuable Player award in Kris Bryant, while his counterpart, Jose Ramirez, has ridden a breakout regular season to a key role on this gritty Cleveland squad. Bryant represents the best of the best at the hot corner. He’s a member of the elite. Ramirez was mired in an obscure role until Michael Brantley’s injury allowed him an opportunity to crack the everyday lineup. He’s seized that opportunity by utilizing his high contact and baserunning abilities, as well as some clutch play.

While the overall skill set and season statistics obviously favor Bryant, in glaringly obvious fashion, it’ll certainly be interesting to see how each performs at the most strenuous point of the game’s brightest stage. Across a nine inning game, we’re talking about the most minuscule of sample sizes. But it’s still worth wondering what challenges each could present for his opponent, particularly in regard to their ability to make contact, their ability to make strong contact, and the threat that they represent on the bases.

Here’s a broader overview of their regular season performances.

In some regards, they’re not quite as far apart as one might initially think. Both are able to reach base at a really nice clip, but what Ramirez has going for him is his ability to get on base and utilize that speed, while striking out a at a far lower rate. Whereas Bryant represents the significantly more impactful bat in the power game. Ramirez embodies that scrappy type of play that has become the Cleveland narrative. As such, he won’t be an easy out at any point for Kyle Hendricks, especially with his success against the changeup. It’ll be interesting to watch Bryant against Corey Kluber for a third time as well, with Bryant having found his groove at the plate over the last pair of games.

In terms of the ability and type of contact we’ve seen from both, refer to the graph below:

Ramirez has been one of the higher contact guys throughout the season. He’s been aggressive in his approach, and he’s been able to utilize that speed effectively in notching a few extra hits because of it. Bryant may strike out more regularly, but his contact rate is also significantly improved from 2015 and his contact ends up being far harder and, subsequently farther, than that of Ramirez. If what we’ve seen thus far in the series is any indication, Ramirez will use that high contact and baserunning ability to be a thorn in the side of Chicago, and if there’s a big time hit to be made on the part of the Cubs, it could very likely come off the bat of Bryant.

It should be relatively well known at this point what each can do on the bases, as the pair rank 1-2 in BsR. Ramirez sports an 8.8 mark, while Bryant comes in not far behind, at 7.3. Ramirez is a legitimate threat to go, with 22 swipes on the season. This could prompt the Cubs to go with David Ross in order to try and slow he and the other Cleveland runners to an extent. While Bryant isn’t as active in the run game, with only eight steals, he’s still a capable baserunner who has been lauded for his intelligence on the basepaths.

As one-sided as it may seem based off of name recognition alone, it’s still a fun matchup that we’ve been able to watch at the hot corner. You have two players in the top eight in WAR at their position, with both bringing different skill sets to the table. While Bryant obviously represents the higher quality player in a variety of ways, the ways in which both could find a way to impact Game 7 in Cleveland on Wednesday night are countless. Bryant with the big power bat, Ramirez with the high contact ability. With perhaps only nine innings remaining in the 2016 Major League year, this will be one fun matchup in a multitude of things to watch in Wednesday’s final tilt.

Chat moved up to today! We’ll start around 2 PM Central.

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Dan Straily: 2017 Projection

Dan Straily was an interesting pitcher in 2016 as seen by the number of FanGraphs articles written about a journeyman 5th starter. Mark Sheldon at MLB.com summed up his entire season with data from a bunch of sabermetric websites.

What helped Straily perform well enough to earn one of those coveted spots? First, it was his effort over the previous offseason. He spent time in Washington working out at Driveline Baseball, a facility that emphasizes pitching data in training programs and uses — among other things — throwing with weighted baseballs to build shoulder strength.

“I literally can say after 31 starts that I never came in one day and was sore,” Straily said. “That’s not supposed to be that way. You’d have the little lingering stuff, but there was never a day where I didn’t want to pick up a baseball. I felt good the entire season.”

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According to Statcast™, Straily had a very low spin rate on his changeup — the average of 1,444 RPMs ranked 80th out of 90 pitchers who threw at least 250 changeups in 2016. Changeups and fastballs with less spin generally have more downward movement. According to the heatmap, Straily was good at locating his changeup down and away to lefty hitters.

The heatmap on Straily’s slider demonstrated he could consistently locate it down and away to righty hitters. According to Fangraphs, the right-hander’s slider was worth 11.3 runs above average, making it his most valuable pitch.

I dove a bit into Straily’s yearlong results and came up with a different pitcher than the one who started the season. The big change happened after his May 25th start when he basically shelved his two-seam fastball (sinker) for the season.

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With the baseball season down to it’s final game, I find myself in a state of joyous mourning. In the case that you support the Cubs or Indians, your emotions are likely mixed between anxiety and excitement. Regardless, 2016 has been a great year for baseball – and we have been very lucky to finish the season with quite possibly the best ending we could hope for. World Series games 7. The fact that both teams playing for the title have not won in 60+ years ago is icing on the cake. However, as someone without fandom to fall back on, I am left with the question of “what do I do tomorrow?” Baseball will be over, and the prospect of counting down the days till April 2, 2017 is sobering – even amidst the excitement tonight is sure to bring. Luckily, I have Ottoneu.

Maybe you’re asking yourself, “What is Ottoneu?” If you’ve never heard of it, I’d encourage you to check it out. While there are many reasons one could choose to play Ottoneu, I wanted to pose the question of “Why play?” to it’s communities of fans. If you have not played Ottoneu, why should you start? What is the draw? Here are some responses. Most of these fit into one of two main buckets. Increased involvement and in depth game-play. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to slide over to second base in our 2016 End of Season Rankings series. In case you missed the first two installments, check out catchers and first basemen. You can also dive straight into the auction calculator. It’s an easy way to estimate player value for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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I thought it may never be done. But Eric Hosmer finally cleared that impenetrable 20 home run barrier after many seasons of hardcore flirting. You see, Hosmer hates worms. So much so, that over 50% of the balls he has put into play over his career have been of the grounder variety. Those worms have likely learned not to pop out of the ground when he’s at the plate. But all those grounders come at the expense of fly balls. And a low fly ball rate has capped Hosmer’s home run potential. Until this year.

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