Archive for October, 2015

Second Half Breakouts Based on ottoneu Points: Part I

After the season, one of the things I like to look at is what players who had big second halves to get a sense of who might be interesting off-season trade targets or auction targets – basically, players whose value might be muted by their overall value/scores, but whose second half suggests big things to come.

This year, I decided to formalize this search. In the past, I’ve just used anecdotal evidence and then looked deeper. Instead, I took a look at every player with 100+ first half PA and 100+ second half PA, comparing their first half points per game to their second half, and today I’ll share the results with you.

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Wilson Ramos Disappoints

Frankly, the best thing we can say about Wilson Ramo’s 2015 season is that he stayed healthy and managed over 500 PAs. He ended the season with a .231/.260/.360 line with 16 doubles and 15 home runs which were a decided disappointment for those of us who had invested in his offensive skills.

As a 23-year-old catcher in 2011, Ramos opened eyes with 15 bombs in 435 Plate Appearances to go with a .267 BA. His .177 ISO that season was encouraging and matched his 2010 mark in Triple A.  Ramos’s K rate of 17.5% was supported by his Minor League career numbers and was in line with a 22 game stint he had in 2010 in his introduction to the Majors. Sandwiched between the 2012 and 2014 seasons that were marred by injury, Ramos clubbed 16 HR’s and batted .272 in just 303 PAs in 2013 with an 81% contact rate and a 40.7% hard hit rate. No wonder he was considered a future hitting star at the catching position and some had predicted that he could approach 30 HRs with a full season of PAs.

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Caleb Joseph Could Be 2016’s Francisco Cervelli

Matt Wieters is a free agent, and as Mike Podhorzer explained, the Orioles appear unlikely to extend him a qualifying offer. The team could still bring Wieters back on a new contract, but I expect them to move on in part because of the less-expensive in-house option, Caleb Joseph.

Joseph does not fit the mold of a prospect who would inherit the job of a departing veteran. In fact, he is less than a month younger than Wieters. However, because of a lengthy minor league career, Joseph has just two years of major league service time and remains under team control with the Orioles in 2016 for very little salary. Meanwhile, while Joseph does not share the offensive potential that once made Wieters such a prized prospect, he does offer the team enough defensive value to merit a full-time job.

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Injuries, Strikeouts Damper Jonathan Lucroy’s Season

In the majority of fantasy leagues, Jonathan Lucroy was likely valued as a top five catcher. His strong batting average, respectable power, and best of all, consistently high plate appearance totals, made him a top option at the position. But as the books closed on the 2015 season, Lucroy finished just 12th, the last man to accrue any value in 12-team mixed leagues that start just one backstop. We’re used to catchers disappointing, which is why many fantasy owners choose to “punt” the position and just go cheap, refusing to pay the market rates for the elite. So let’s find out what went wrong.

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What Happened to Derek Norris?

Derek Norris was drafted as the 18th catcher off the board last spring and wound up eighth by season’s end. It’s pretty hard to label that anything other than a success, and yet it still feels a bit underwhelming when you look at the full line: .250/.305/.404 with 14 HR, 62 RBI, 65 R, and even 4 SB in 557 PA. Perhaps the line leaves me wanting more because the driving force behind his top-10 ranking was the playing time as opposed to any skills improvement.

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Crossed Signals: Blake Swihart

Over the offseason, the Red Sox refused to trade catching prospect Blake Swihart (plus others) for then-Phillies ace Cole Hamels. In retrospect it was a wise move if only because other components on the roster failed spectacularly. If one of Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, or Rusney Castillo had performed as expected, then Hamels may have been the difference between a Wild Card berth and a trip home. As it turned out, he would have been dealt again at the deadline.

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Welington Castillo Enjoys Power Surge

It’s highly unlikely that Welington Castillo was drafted in your shallow mixed league this season. And heck, he was the last pick in the 15 team LABR mixed draft. He wasn’t even the starting catcher for the team he started the year with and he ended up being a member of three different organizations by season’s end. And yet after all this, he still managed to earn the 11th highest value among catchers.

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Have FanDuel and DraftKings Screwed Up?

Last Saturday, I was watching Daily Show re-runs from the previous week. When I saw FanDuel and DraftKings had wrangled a lead story, I was happy. Obviously the segment was going to be about the “insider trading” scandal. DraftKings employees have made around $5 million on FanDuel. It’s bullturds, but it’s also hard to get too bent out of shape about it.

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2015 Roto Rookie Hitter

You don’t need me to tell you that 2015 produced an outstanding group of Rookie Hitters. The question is which player rises to the top of this very stellar group?

In order to make this determination, we first needed to select  criteria upon which to assess offensive performance. In my opinion, RC+ is a great tool because it is easy to use.  Any two players can be compared because it establishes a league average rate for position players of 100. It also controls for league and park effects but does not control for position played which will enter the conversation latter. Since we are talking about hitting only, we are not factoring in the defensive wizardry or lack thereof of any of the players selected.

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2015 Roto Overhyped Pitcher

The best of, worst of awards continue this week along with a spotlight on fantasy baseball’s catcher landscape in 2015. Last week, I awarded the 2015 Sigh Young — fantasy baseball’s biggest pitching bust — to Jeff Samardzija, who miserably underperformed expectations en route to a pretty awful season.

The 2015 Roto Overhyped Pitcher award is a bit different and probably more subjective. Rather than simply be bad, a pitcher must have also been over-hyped. Too much hype typically occurs for two reasons, neither of which are mutually exclusive:

  1. The pitcher was once a top prospect
  2. The pitcher broke out, or turned the corner, the previous season

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