Have FanDuel and DraftKings Screwed Up?
Last Saturday, I was watching Daily Show re-runs from the previous week. When I saw FanDuel and DraftKings had wrangled a lead story, I was happy. Obviously the segment was going to be about the “insider trading” scandal. DraftKings employees have made around $5 million on FanDuel. It’s bullturds, but it’s also hard to get too bent out of shape about it.
I expected Trevor Noah to make light of the scandal. After all, it’s kind of silly. Instead, the whole thing came off as decidedly serious. Yep, the Daily Show ran a mostly serious lead segment about the evil DFS industry. Uh oh.
It occurred to me that the DFS industry had stepped in it. And their disingenuous ad bombardment was only exacerbating the problem. Sure enough, the #LetThemPlay movement and a FanDuel petition were gathering steam by Saturday night. All of a sudden, it felt like DFS was in serious jeopardy.
Usually an ad blitz campaign is just one of those negative symptoms of capitalism. Watching a sports game? Sorry, in between feats of athletic prowess, you’re going to see 80 beer ads (mostly piss water) and 20 boner pills (the same two brands) over the next three hours. I consider these DFS ads to be a worthy change of pace. At least for now.
The problem with the ads is their shortsighted nature. Remember Pokerocalypse? I wasn’t affected because I stopped playing about a year earlier. I figured out that I was making about $1.50 per hour and wasn’t getting any better.
I mention poker because it’s qualitatively similar to DFS. It’s a game of skill with billions of dollars at stake. Poker actually requires more skill in my opinion – DFS is a lightly-skill-based lottery. If the industry doesn’t have protection against something like DFSocalypse, then why are they raising their profile?
Ultimately, the ads aren’t the problem. The lawsuits and federal investigations were initiated well before all of this NFL/postseason spam. They’re only calling more attention to a problem. A bigger problem is the growing sense that the games aren’t fair.
I saw a statistic on Twitter recently. Caveat: I didn’t bother to validate if it was true. FanDuel claimed that DraftKings employees had won “just” 0.03 percent of prizes. That worked out to about $5 million. That’s quite a pay day. Of course, we don’t know about their buy-ins. Maybe they spent $2.5 million for their $5 million. Maybe they spent $4.9 million. Maybe less than $1 million. We don’t know. Presumably, they’ve made money.
DFS comes with a learning curve. It’s deceptively large. So many people still use batter versus pitcher data for baseball. They’ll never stop because they’ve never read The Book. Without using science, any strategy can feel successful. Even BvP-based lineups.
There needs to be a fair space for amateurs to compete. They should have a chance to learn the game without playing against machines. Quants own the landscape. The DraftKings controversy is a drop in the bucket. Imagine how much money is going to quants – the guys who use server farms to pick their lineups and automatically match against the worst head-to-head players. Hint, it’s a lot more than 0.03 percent.
Those are the biggest problems with the ways FanDuel and DraftKings run their businesses. But there is plenty to like too. As long as you stay within yourself, you can have a lot of fun without hurting your bank account. Even if the game is rigged against ordinary players, it should never get as bad as poker in its heyday. With even a tiny amount of preparation, you’ll always have a real, legitimate chance to win any contest.
I have a vested interest in the outcome of this controversy. Over the last calendar year, roughly half of my earnings are related to writing about DFS. The sites themselves are some of the biggest advertisers on all fantasy baseball sites. They indirectly pay for normal fantasy analysis too. That’s why I signed FanDuel’s petition. Perhaps it’s melodramatic to say my job is on the line. Perhaps not. To me, it seems clear that DFS is ripe for some simple regulation.
The current state of affairs offers too many rewards to power users. The sites should probably ban their employees from playing on other platforms – offering better pay should be sufficient. They should also find a way to help new and amateur users avoid Skynet quants. But ultimately, it seems ridiculous to shut down DFS sites. It would needlessly cripple the entire fantasy industry.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
I don’t particularly care about the draft kings ads on TV, but their radio ads are the absolute worst. ESPN radio is basically brief periods of commentary followed by prolonged stretches of some guy shouting loudly about all the money you can make on DFS.
I can only assume that Vegas was behind the death of online poker, and I can only assume that they will likewise be putting money behind the death of DFS.
The whole thing is a scam and the pro sports leagues should be ashamed of themselves. Its a smart money game that provides the illusion that you are just up against your buddies. Things like minimum withdrawal amounts almost guarantee that you keep playing. Frankly, advice columns are useless, because enough people read them that those players can’t possibly win because so many people select them. I believe we are up to 5 states banning money games and NV in its own interest banning it entirely. The whole thing is just so slimy that it feels like the check advance industry.
you can always deposit more money and then withdraw it all….
I just find it hard ot believe it’s really a game of skill.
We know BvP match-ups are meaningless. We sort of think you can somewhat bank on certain types of hitters (FB/GB) versus certain types of pitchers…
but, especially for baseball, it comes down to that fluke guy you had to start because he was the cheapest.
You often talk about your big winnings coming on a Brad MIller 2-HR game. If he only hits one, do you win as much money?
To me that’s entirely a game of chance. I know a lot about baseball, i read a lot about baseball, I wouldnt wager much of my money at all on DFS and certainly wouldnt expect to win. It’s a coin flip, pure and simple.
The adds are obnoxious. They dont paint an actual picture of who wins what. I’m guessing DK and Fan Duel higher ups are making a killing, there are a decent amount of people making some money and then a ton of people not making anything.
Further, they’re completely unregulated and it would absolutely not shock me to see flagrant abuses of insider knowledge. It happens with the stock market, why wouldnt it happen with DFS?
It just seems really slimy. if it’s couched as, this enhances your enjoyment of the game, sure, you’re paying for entertainment. But this idea that a common person can actually win money at this is insane. You really can’t.
The Miller bomb accounted for $700 of the roughly $2800 I’ve won overall. If he didn’t hit the second one, I would have finished second (probably around $250). I happened to be stat watching that day. Usually I try to ignore my DFS teams while they’re live.
No point to be made, just adding another detail. That $700 was the seed money that got me rolling though. I had about $30 in my account from a $10 initial buy in when FanDuel first came out.
I struggle to see how DFS is a game of skill but wagering on the outcome of a football game is a game of chance.
Seems to me that either both are gambling, or neither. Both involve wagering on the collective outcome of a group of individual players.
If you were just picking who wins and who loses with a flat payout if you’re right, then it wouldn’t be gambling. Once you add in over/unders, moneyline, etc, then it is gambling. Vegas takes something skill based and reduces it to luck.
Granted, the DFS site do their version of this by changing player prices based on their skill.
I don’t remember any DFS companies going to peoples’ houses, kidnapping them and forcing them to put their money into the DFS game. You think its a scam? Don’t play. No reason to tell consenting adults that they can’t put a friendly wager on which of them can construct a more potent roster than the other.
I’m doing a post-season fantasy with 3 other friends. It is so much luck involved, it’s almost at the point of fantasy football. You think that’s a dumb game that I shouldn’t be allowed to play too?
I dont think you quite understand my argument.
I see no problem with small wagers among friends–you know who you are competing against, it should be a level playing field, etc.
This is an unregulated industry. We’ve already seen that employees at companies possibly could have insider knowledge and have made money on other sites.
We also see that people can create computer programs and algorithms to improve their chances at winning.
You think Joe-schmo seeing an advertisement is aware of this? No, he thinks he’s competing against other Joe-Schmos.
What if you thought you were playing against 10 friends in a post-season fantasy league but it turned out it was just one of your friend who entered 9 teams…would that be as fair or fun?
But I also have serious issues with state run lotteries as well (so take my comments with that grain of salt). I also believe advertising can have a major influence on someone’s choices and rarely in a positive way.
Lastly, I think the way the advertisements are run makes it seem like it’s relatively easy to win money, which seems like total bull when you look at what is actually required to make money in baseball specifically…I can’t speak for football, but that seems like a coin flip and you wouldnt be advising people to bet money on a 50/50 shot when the person providing the coin for flipping takes 10%…
You guys are getting bogged down in game of chance vs. game of skill. It’s both, just like poker, and just like baseball itself. It’s just a matter of where on the spectrum it is.
DFS by it’s very nature, and by the very nature of the internet and the growth of baseball sabermetrics, is bound to be won in the long run by algorithms. I know Python so last offseason I was working on a DFS algorithm that I could bonus whore with, until I found a website sharing the same information I was trying to compile. I figured I was already too late.
By the time the UIGEA had passed bots were present in poker, but they weren’t dominating, or even thriving. They were just something players were scared of. I haven’t played much online poker since then, so I couldn’t tell you if that’s changed. But it’s a lot tougher to build a bot that can win at NLHE then it is to build a DFS algorithm based on public projections, park factors, and handedness splits.
I can’t stand dfs as I whole heartedly believe that season long fantasy advice has gotten worse overall at it’s expense. Every site on the damn internet had some half assed idea of who you should be paying tomorrow. It is a parasite industry and I can’t wait until they go away.
Bo knows bitterness
But keep up the good work, Brad!
Well I know our analysis at RotoGraphs was top-notch this year. Maybe he should just stick around here…
But seriously though. More DFS money means more full time writers. The best ones tend to pool on a few top sites. Just stick to those sites. Remember not all fantasy “experts” know what they’re doing. Some just get the job because they write well and/or turn in their work on time.
i pray each night in the sepulchre of hitler’s pyramid that mike aviles may deliver me and my family from our current destitution, yet every morning the gods of thule deny me my dreams
This is not true, for the record. Some people play DFS without it affecting how much they play traditional leagues, but for the most part it’s been leeching off of participation in traditional formats. That has led to some traditional outlets being squeezed if not shuttered entirely.
One of the newer sites I work with takes almost all of its revenue through DFS ads yet no more than 10% of their articles relate to DFS. Their best performing content is dynasty, keepers, and sleepers. Some sites fold up, others are born.
I just hope the oncoming regulation doesn’t take season-long fantasy down with it.
Oh I doubt it would. Traditional fantasy is too widely accepted. Might it affect a service like LeagueSafe? Perhaps.
I could see it effecting money leagues where there is a 3rd party managing it; such as the yahoo pro leagues.
Most leagues are closer to march madness brackets. There is lots of money there, but it is exchanged by hand between the guys actually in the league. I do a few low money leagues that we just put the money in an envelope and the winner gets it at seasons end. There really is no way to regulate that, and if they did, it is the same as busting a weekly poker game between friends- it simply is not worth the effort.
“I consider these DFS ads to be a worthy change of pace.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
no
You prefer the old British lady talking candidly about your member?
Yes. I’d rather have a boner than a migraine.
ZING!!
A big part of the problem with the poker comparison is that (as I understand it, anyway) the DFS sites don’t make it particularly hard to enter a particular lineup into many different competitions, where the poker sites did have anti-bot policies. So if you didn’t want to compete against the big guys in poker you could play on a low limit table fairly secure in the belief that it wasn’t worth their time to pick on you even if they were capable of multi-tabling, but that isn’t really possible in DFS.
This is why I call for a safe space for amateurs.
Eliminating boys would likely eliminate most/all of the big fish. Assuming they don’t find a way around the rules.
I’m actually not so sure that the companies want to eliminate them.
Heh. Bots, obviously. Though I suppose eliminating boys might also do it.
I don’t think you need to eliminate the bots per se. And the large GPPs would still be open to all. But some lower level 250 to 1000 person tournaments in the $1-$10 range and a protected space for H2H of the same amount would help amateurs gain the knowledge necessary to actually compete against the bots.
We can compete against the bots. I know it to be so.
As much as I also enjoyed the movie, a touch too obscure, John dude.
Anyone else find it hypocritical that baseball, who has ads for fanduel and draftkings during their games, still bans Pete Rose for gambling? Call it a game of skill all you want, DFS is gambling on sports outcomes. When 27 baseball teams have agreements with DFS sites, its safe to say they sponsor gambling. The hard rule in baseball since Commissioner Landis served has been gambling of any sort in the game will get you a lifetime ban. Apparently as long as the teams are backing the gambling sites, it’s all ok. Very shady
Yes. But because it’s quasi-gambling, MLB isn’t going to forgo a slice of the pie. Besides, it’s seems highly unlikely that it would ever influence the actual game.
True, I doubt with high player salaries and diffused influence by individual player outcomes that any player would influence these games. But from a strict point of morality, it’s wrong for Manfred to ban Rose from baseball while teams own a piece of a gambling site. It’s completely hypocritical.
single player can make a huge difference. Take match ups where you are owned and then tank
You would like to think it couldn’t influence the actual game, but it isn’t that hard to imagine a scenario where an MLB manager decides to give several of his superstars an off day when facing a middling pitcher while having simultaneously selected that opposing pitcher in DFS on a hunch that he might perform better than usual.
That’s a pretty outlandish scenario. The manager would still only improve his odds by a couple percentage points. And DFS owners would learn to just avoid that team. For example, I never used Rays pitchers because they were pulled before completing six innings so often.
My immediate thoughts: How much free advertising did FanDuel and DraftKings get out of this controversy?
I have to imagine that the additional exposure to the public, particularly in areas that they wouldn’t normally target like the Daily Show, CNN, etc, greatly outweighs whatever was the cost of hiring independent firms to audit their practices. Of course, operating under the assumption that they won’t be shut down because of this.
The problem for the sites is their cost per customer. They scarfed up the natural power users years ago and still didn’t turn a profit (at least according to people on Twitter, who knows). Now they have to figure out how to get people who really shouldn’t be playing to somehow turn into a profit.
The whole industry is a little funky.
Publicity that ‘these people are cheating their customers!’ is NOT! profit-creating publicity.
Brad- did want to note that your daily grind coverage is absolutely superb.
But if someone like you cant win money and someone like me lost his money ($25, not a big deal, was just for fun on opening day and realized it wasnt for me), i just find it hard to believe there is much skill there (then it becomes a game of chance). I’ve played fantasy baseball for 12 years now. I think I’m pretty good. I’m almost always competitive, yada, yada, yada. I know SSS, i know BvP mean nothing. I can run my own projections, etc.
Projections over 162 games are tenuous enough, so projections for 1 game? Just seems like it is a game of chance for the most part. And it should probably be marketed far different.
I guess my issue is that people seem to think they can have an “edge” and that’s the way it’s marketed (more so for football), wherein someone should realize that your odds arent much better than going to a casino….
Just because you’re not good enough at it doesn’t mean it’s not about skill.
You sound like Podhorzer: “when I win, it’s my superior skill. But when I don’t win, it’s because of injuries and luck.”
Yes, when DFS takes 10% of your money, it’s like going to a casino. It’s kind of the first thing you notice about the site when you start: how much money do they take?
So, how are you good at it? What data sources do you use?
Do you think Brad is good at it?
I think there can be a small competitive edge gained through a lot of work. But we’re talking about giving you maybe a percentage point advantage. That can be wiped out pretty quickly by bots and algorithms…
When i won at DFS, i always thought it was luck – the process was the same every time. I won 50/50 of the time. When I won, I hit on that cheap player that was lightly owned — that seems to me how you win and that doesnt seem like a lot of skill. Just because Jeff Francoeur is batting fourth, is at home and cheap doesnt make me good at DFS…
I also dont think many people realize how much DFS takes. Their advertisements dont mention it at all. Maybe I’m wrong. I played and didnt know the rake…
I just dont see how DFS is any different than online casinos and those arent legal…right?
And to put a finer point on this. Are you only talking about baseball DFS as a game of skill (which I imagine accounts for a smallish percentage of DFS).
Do you think there is skill in DFS for football? hockey? basketball? college football?
Because I’m talking about the broad spectrum of DFS. Football DFS, which I assume is the most widely played, seems like a total crapshoot to me…
I only talk about baseball. I wasn’t aware there were other sports on these sites. (but seriously, only baseball)
And you hit the nail on the head with regard to earning big pay days. You have to find that one weird, unpopular pick who can do damage that day. Otherwise you can spike your lineup and still only get 5x in the huge GPPs. I spent way too much time this season on too many over-popular guys.
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I feel like this was once a slightly more cogent thought that was run through the Serbian-to-French-to-Vietnamese grinder.
“[I]t seems ridiculous to shut down DFS sites. It would needlessly cripple the entire fantasy industry.”
What? I mean, WHAT!? What are you talking about dude? I been playing fantasy sports since 1995–and I’m only 39 years old. I’ve been playing with some amazing dudes all across the country for years. I see new interest in Fantasy sports from new converts every time a new sports season begins, whether it’s baseball, basketball, hockey, etc. Come on dude, did Poker die when they outlawed online sites in America? Please…
Never been more disappointed in an FG article. You writing this article is like Don Rumsfeld writing that, after reviewing the facts, invading Iraq has proved to be a good idea, and could have turned out even better with a tweak here or there, and everyone gets to go home happy. You’re biased. As for me, your average REAL fantasy sports player…DFS is stupid, it’s gambling, and it needs to be highly regulated if not outlawed for all the reasons your article mentions.
I don’t understand how the interest in DFS has impacted season-long fantasy players aside from the “stupid money” moving on to another format.
If you’re a season-long fantasy ‘purist’ like myself, I don’t see why we can’t just ignore DFS and do our own thing as we always have.
I want to ignore it, it just won’t let you.
The simple answer is money. FanGraphs isn’t in this position (that I’m aware of), but I know several of the sites I write for take in a large amount of ad and referral revenue via DFS sites. It’s what pays for a lot of traditional fantasy coverage. Lose that revenue and we’ll be back to just a few sites that actually pay their writers.
If regulation destroys the DFS industry, it’s because the DFS isn’t a viable industry when it isn’t rigged.
It caused yahoo to eliminate year-long $50/$100 pro leagues so they could chase the DFS players.
Fangraphs cracks me up. Everyone who writes about season long fantasy leagues talks constantly about how important sample size is.
And then others write about DFS.
I understand there’s money to be made, but when you have to throw everything you know about predicting future outcomes out the window so that you can pretend to be able to predict outcomes for one given day–it all feels so very silly.
I don’t think this was ever an issue on this site. Of course you’re looking for that 1.000 BABIP day or 3 HR, but there are conditions that make these performances just a little more likely. And we use large samples of data and research to identify these conditions.
Dylan Higgans (Field of Streams podcast) and I (Daily Grind) often talked about the flukiness of a single day.
There is no incongruity here. There’s just more variance in a single day than in a single season. That doesn’t mean there’s not ways to take +EV propositions, it just means that the best team/lineup doesn’t always win, just like in a single baseball game.
I believe it would be a massive mistake to throw everything you know about predicting future outcomes out the window when doing DFS.
Just because small sample sizes don’t normalize doesn’t mean that you didn’t have an advantage if you are better at predicting future performances. Large samples are very important when playing both.
Player prices are also heavily informed by what a guy has done lately. Granted, it can be hard to discern between a fluky slump and an injury. If you do so correctly, you’ll squeeze more value into your lineup.
I guess I’m misunderstanding how DFS works. I thought it was like parimutuel betting, except that, rather than everyone who can read a tote board, only the insiders know which players currently have how much money bet on them? Hence the massive insider advantage.
Which is flat-out unregulatable.
B): Employee Richie, no DFS playing for you.
R): Oh, you bet, boss.
(clickclickclickclickclickclickclick)
R): Hi buddy Ralph? Richie here. You wouldn’t mind at all entering a DFS squad for me, would you?
The one saving grace is that DK and FD pricing is sometimes wildly different. There were many days when a guy would cost $5,000 on DK (mid-tier elite) and $2,800 on FD (core bargain). The bargain tag would ensure he’s much more frequently owned on FD.
But your point is true enough. That’s kinda why Martha Stewart went to jail.
If you missed it, try to find Outside the Lines from last Friday (they showed the rerun on Sunday). They reported tht more than 90% of the money is won by less than 2% of players. I played daily basebasll prbably 20 times and wondered why I couldn’t win? I don’t have the resources that the 2% have. I don’t know what an algorhythm is. I’m not calling sour grapes here…I’ve just accepted that I can’t beat the 2% with the information I currently have. I’m what’s known as a “minnow” to the pros, who are earning more in DFS than from their real jobs. No point to all this….except you may think you know what you’re doing, but it’s probable you don’t.
Well, 90% of the money may be wagered by 2% of players, in which case you’d expect that result if they are often playing each other. Same thing probably happens a lot in Vegas with poker: much of the money is at high-stakes tables, which represent a small portion of the players, and that money only changes hands between them.
There are merits to both points. I haven’t talked to anyone who wagers more than $50 a day without some sort of algorithm-based or quant approach. Many of the quants wager at least $1,000 a day. Some wager over $10,000 on average. There are even multi-entry contests with entries over $1,000.
In short, it takes a LOT of minnows to equal the wagers of one quant. But don’t be entirely fooled. They’re winning too.
I’m a quant. I write machine learning algos of cognition for a living. The opportunity cost of my time is pretty high- why in God’s name would I waste time trying to algo DFS? I know people do it, it just seems like they’re probably muscling it. I mean, I love sports, and I do a couple cool things with factor loading models for my yearly teams, but the time I would have to spend to build something I would be proud of in analyzing DFS can be spent in more lucrative ways.
I’ve been approached by a couple quants looking to team up. The main reason I’ve turned them down is because I suspect the low (and mid) hanging fruit have already been plucked. I assume any tiny mistake in any of the theory I apply could cost hundreds if not thousands of dollars. My past experience with funders has taught me that they don’t have the stomach for regular slumps.
Disclaimer, I am no one’s attorney, this is not legal advice, if you need legal advice, talk to someone licensed in your jurisdiction.
So there are two issues the way I see it, 1) is it legal? and 2) if it is legal, do I want to play it?
As for the second question, no I don’t want to play it. The single day odds of predicting a player’s performance are ludicrous and there is no long term strategy. In light of that the only way to get an edge over the “house’s” cut is to use computerized methodology to set your line up which 1) isn’t fun and 2) tilts the odds further in your favor and away from everyone playing straight up. Those adds irritating ads didn’t pay for themselves, and much like the nice hotels in Vegas or online poker adds, they didn’t get paid for on the backs of winners. Accordingly, I would rather just stay away.
As for the second question, is it legal? Two things, 1) irrespective of the federal government, state laws differ in individual states and gambling laws are specific and worth knowing as it relates to any gambling like activity. 2) As for the federal law in question, the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (or UIGEA), one key provision of this law is that “the term bet or wager, does not include participation in any [fantasy league]…[provided] all winning outcomes reflect the relative knowledge and skill of the participants…”
Personally, as the results on a daily basis are so unpredictable, I would say very little of the daily winning outcomes reflect knowledge or skill (while the same is not true for season long results). That said, that is just one opinion and it has yet to be litigated. If anyone is interested, bloomberg law did a nice podcast on the subject of the legality on Sept. 24, 2015 that is worth a listen. That said, until a firm stance is taken by the federal government for DFS, I would be concerned if I received a significant amount of revenue from DFS sources.
I know I said “As for the second question” twice and also had one or two ‘I am writing this after midnight’ based typos. Please forgive me, you all know what I meant.
I don’t see any real harm with FanDuel or DraftKings if they’re regulated the same as any other gambling. Sure, most of the winnings go to a few “professional” players, but how is that any different from blackjack with card-counters? Most folks (without gambling problems) gamble for the entertainment value of it, even knowing that they should expect to lose more than they win.
“I don’t see any real harm with FanDuel or DraftKings”
…aside from the harm to my eardrums which are now bleeding. BRANDON C WON $300! THESE ARE REAL PEOPLE JUST LIKE YOU! GIVE US SOME MONEY PLEASE! WE WILL NEVER STOP SHOUTING!!
I have played in a baseball league for over 20yrs, before computers were a factor. We did all our transactions by phone in the early years. Relied on newspapers for information and watching games. Your local team or the game of the week. There was no MLB station. There was competition between actual people you knew. Much like local fantasy football leagues in factories, offices and groups of friends. In fact I gained friends by competing. I played one online baseball league a few years ago and won. A hollow win. Didn’t know anyone, couldn’t brag about it to anyone, who cared. We do have nominal payoffs in our league based on transactions. But its not about the money. If I have to worry about how much I’m losing, what good is it? I realize this is only my experience, but I wouldn’t trade it for DK or FD.
So funny you just posted that James. I played fantasy baseball and football for a number of years back when everything was run by someone typing stats from USA Today into a Lotus 123 spreadsheet, and everyone had at least seen the other owners on draft day. The reasons I stopped playing were (1) the stakes got too high to where I worried about losing and (2) when the baseball league I was in switched to an online stat service so they could do daily transactions, I got tired of having to get up at 4am to make sure nobody beat me to my targeted waiver claim.
yeah that would have been easily avoidable
Amen.
I started playing over 20 years ago with an in-person draft and a “Commissioner” who kept the spreadsheets from the newspaper info.
It got me hooked…not because of prize money but because I’m a math geek who loves baseball and it introduced me to players that I wouldn’t have known much about.
After playing boring public leagues which were no challenge, I started a custom keeper league 6 years ago and ended up with a outstanding group of competitive guys in every age and ethnic group located all over the world and in the process we have become good friends.
No money prizes. Certificates and bragging rights only.
I wouldn’t trade the post season live game chats on the league site, daily e-mails about everything, and the annual league trip to ballparks for any cash league either.
Apparently, neither would they because the trash talk regarding next season has already started.
Hi Brad,
Thanks for the article. I’m curious to learn more about “The Book.” I play in daily update roto leagues and I have historically used batter vs. pitcher numbers to determine who I’m going to stream that day. Is this a flawed approach? Is there a more scientific way to stream?
The Book is a famous Sabermetrics holy text. I highly recommend picking up a copy for its insights. You can find a link to it on Amazon here – http://www.tangotiger.com/index.php
As for BvP, there is no evidence that a hitter can own a pitcher. No evidence is not the same as saying that it never happens. Having played baseball mostly as a hitter and pitcher, it’s ridiculous to say that some matchups don’t strongly favor the hitter or pitcher.
Several issues exist with BvP data. I’ll just touch on two of many. We’re usually looking at a tiny sample i.e. Hitter X is 10-for-26 versus Pitcher Y. And those 26 AB are sometimes spread over a long period (like 10 years). If that hitter is Chase Utley, then what he did in 2007 isn’t terribly relevant anymore. If the pitcher is Jered Weaver, he’s a completely different pitcher than he was five years ago.
DFS is most definitely a game of skill. I get why season longers (i assume most of fangraphs readers) might think its not. Season long and daily are just very different things
I have no evidence to back it up but Id imagine DFS is also a nice part in keeping MLB growing and having people watching. I never would have started watching NBA if it wasnt for DFS and Id imagine a lot of people could say the same about MLB. Heck, thats why casinos want in on DFS. They want the younger generations coming in to play DFS so they can play the slots on the way out
I agree DFS is a skill and I think it’s funny to see some on here say that it isn’t. Just because you might have the correct process in DFS doesn’t mean you will win everyday. Just like you won’t win every year in year long fantasy. But if you play it long enough (diversifying over time), you will come out ahead.
If the sites get shut down soon, will their onslaught of commercials be considered one of the biggest advertising blunders of all time?
Yes.
Depends on the delta of $$ gained this season due to new traffic generated by the commercials vs the combination of the cost of the commercials plus any legal penalties they will be forced to pay.
Nerd 🙂
Kinda defeats the purpose of using delta if you have to spell it out. “Change” is just one more character after all.
We also have to factor in the loss of future revenue if they get shut down and IF the advertising volume expedited or caused the shutdown.
The ad costs this fall must have been (and continue to be) astronomical, so I really doubt they have so far recouped that through new traffic caused by the commercials.
If DFS screws up leaguesafe I will be pissed. I’ve enjoyed my safe, tax free winnings for years now. I left CBS Sportsline a long time ago because they kept a huge chunk of the pot AND sent your winnings to the IRS.
Not sure where all of us yearly fantasy guys will go if that is taken from us. I might just quit.
There are alternatives, they just aren’t as easy to set up.
You say tax free yet leaguesafe collects a fee for service. Might not be called a tax but it has the same effect.
You have a problem with a $3 fee on a $100 league? Find me a better deal somewhere else that keeps my money safe. If they regulate and tax leaguesafe, they will be the same for every similar service.
That means if we use PayPal or venmo, we could get ripped off by shady lm’s.
Paypal? Venmo?
Whether or not a site withholds the tax on your behalf doesn’t mean it’s “tax free”. You are required by law to report all earnings.
Is everyone else reporting their fantasy winnings in their pool with their buddies? Their $5 they put on that Chargers game just for kicks? What they get out of the NCAA bracket pool at the office? Anybody?
*crickets*
Yeah…
Comparing DFS leagues with poker is just a poor comparison. There is skill involved in poker – DFS, not so much. Picking a DFS lineup is like evaluating a poker hand before the flop… it is all luck from there. Except for the skill part which comes after you see some more cards.
I think that’s a good analogy, except it kind of invalidates your point. Especially for a more advanced game than Hold Em. For example, I play a game we call Regret that involves a five-card starting hand, a discard on the flop, turn, and river, and Omaha rules (must play both cards). Pre-flop analysis isn’t as mathematically simplified as with Hold Em.
There is definitely skill in pre-flop Hold Em playing.
kind of… you can certainly print out starting hand strength on a single sheet of paper, then fold everything else. I wouldn’t call that strategy as much as general knowledge which anyone can Google. Sounds a lot like DFS to me. That is where the skill ends (using the term very loosely), from there it is luck. In poker, that is where real strategy and skill begin.
Yea but a good player doesn’t only play the top hands either. And knowing where to do that is important too. (there was a Jeff Francouer example elsewhere in the thread).
But only playing pre-flop hands above a certain strength isn’t enough to play (and is a poor plan if used every hand). If you don’t fold, you have to decide whether to call or bet, and how much to bet, and then you might have another pre-flop decision if someone after you raises.
You have a very naive understanding of poker then. Poker and DFS (and regular fantasy and actual baseball) are both games of luck AND skill.
It’s a scam! But when 1% of the worlds population owns more than the rest of us combined…
I find this whole thing fascinating…
Brad – do you think that regardless of what ultimately happens with DK and FD, do you think that the concept of playing daily has opened up the floodgates in terms of possibilities?
Why not a weekly format? Monthly? Half a season? Salary based or draft?
If this gambling-heavy version of what is currently known as “DFS” is eventually shut down (or not), don’t you think there is a world of potential new ways that people can engage with fantasy sports?
One issue is that many contests allow multiple entries. So an amateur in a 1000-entry pool might be playing against 400 other amateurs, but 6 professionals with 100 entries each.
I’ve never tried draftkings.
But, if I understand and did my entries as an amateur in fanduel correctly, there also are fanduel games that restrict users to one entry per contest, thus allowing more of the amateurism that you seek.
The same argument towards DFS being a skill is effectively the one used for poker. Namely, in the short-term, less-skilled players can win. In the long-term, more knowledgeable players should come out on top based on a series of results.
This is effectively what happens over season-long leagues too. It’s just that in DFS except you have to add up several micro seasons as opposed to one long-term macro league to get to your conclusions. Or adding these up over years, etc.
I don’t play DFS for the same reason I stopped playing poker — I suck at dealing with the swings. I also am not a fan of Fanduel and the other whoever. But it’s fairly disingenous to toss it aside while trumpeting the well-established versions of the game because it’s something new and different.
Many of the objections to dfs are because the outcomes are variable on a daily basis. Well, duh. Baseball performances are probabilistic in nature, so you must play dfs for the long term to assess or evaluate your skills. No doubt it can drive you crazy when your opponent has brad Miller and he hits two homers that day.
DFS is not random at all. Did you miss that ‘whales’ with deep algorithms are winning. There is no algorithm that is going to help you win a true lottery like Powerball (other than the ones that say ‘save your money and don’t play;). I’ve seen the winning lineups on MLB network all season. Spend your money on TOR pitching and assemble position players in positive run scoring environments (Coors, Chase, etc.), often against MOR and BOR starters and with questionable bullpens. The vigorish is pretty high but so is the amount of suckers (often with season long fantasy concepts that don’t work in DFS).
Still, it is completely gambling. I mean sharp bettor win in horses, greyhounds, blackjack, poker, etc. Those are ‘skill’ games too, no different.
I will shed no tears for FanDuel or DraftKings. I’ve been playing roto baseball for about 15 seasons, and the DFS explosion this season sucked, from my point of view. I can empathize with Brad’s monetary interest, but I have no use for the gambling influence in my hobby. That started a few seasons back when all the fantasy football players started playing baseball during the NFL off-season, and H2H surpassed roto (what I like to play)in popularity in the fantasy baseball world. I enjoy reading blogs & analysis to spot trneds early etc., but now everything is geared toward short-term daily lineups. For a non-gambler, the DFS industry is about as welcome as a couple of crack dealers setting up shop on your corner. And, imho, that’s exactly what DFS is: the crack of the fantasy baseball industry.
Problem is we don’t know anything for sure because DFS and FD are not regulated. Have to go by what they say. Who are those guys that play 200 teams in a single contest every single day? Tell me. The payoff/payin ratio does not compute.
How does DFS for example ensure the maximum amount of contestants since under the law (that says they are not gambling) they must offer a guaranteed prize. Roughly half of the contestants enter within the last hour for entries are closed, and they always reach that maximum number. Pretty fishy to me
DFS is a game of luck, not all skill. It is gambling, just like poker. Both require a bit of skill, but the winners win with luck. MLB should have no part of it
“Both require a bit of skill, but the winners win with luck. MLB should have no part of it”
Under this logic the MLB should have no part of baseball either.
The sample for football is way too small, and that is what is going to screw all of this up.
What I don’t understand is why people make it a point to bash DFS if they are a season long player. If you don’t like it, don’t play it. The ads bother us all, but I guess you’d prefer the 100 beer commercials?
DFS is taking a lot of space for writers because the nature of the game makes daily columns more desirable, simple as that. I actually find a lot of the daily analysis that I look at to be just as, if not more, informative on a fantasy level than yearly analysis. It forces you to learn so much more about the game and the players involved. Since I started playing DFS, I’ve won 90% of my seasonal baseball leagues. I am up to date on every trend, every news story. It has only enhanced my abilities as a seasonal player.
As for the game of chance, game of skill argument. If you boil it down, every game is a game of chance and skill. If skill won every game, sports wouldn’t be enjoyable. The enjoyable aspect of sports is that on any given day, something crazy can happen. This is even more of a fact for baseball, I mean look at BABIP. DFS is skill game, and it requires luck. These aren’t mutually exclusive concepts, and the reason we enjoy sports is because they contain them both.
Brad,
What do you think about single entry tournaments? Seems like they level the field a little bit.
They’re definitely a better starting ground for learning GPPs. But the payouts are much smaller than the multi-entry tournaments
Coming back this —
1. The insiders may very well overlap with those who are running algorithms for their entires. If as commenter Joe says the opportunity cost is too high for most programmers who could spend their time more lucratively, then those who have to work on algorithms for their own site would already have a large time investment in preparing pricing algorithms to enter contests in the other site.
2. Insiders know way more about the differences in the pricing methods the two major sites use than the rest of us do, and can use that knowledge to their advantage even without the whole oh I know how many people are using Tom Brady today.
3. If 1. is correct, expect a lot of people to quit their day jobs at FD and DK. In fact, employee turnover would give us a pretty good indication of how widespread the “insider problem” is as opposed to the “sharks and minnows” problem. But let’s face it, we are the minnows. If you are not cranking your roster through a sophisticated predicative computer program, you are at a disadvantage, ad that disadvantage is almost certainly big enough to mean that if you play consistently you will lose. You may win form time to time, but if you don’t walk away the players who use a more sophisticated process will beat you out over time.
4. DK does run “beginner only” contests, but heaven knows how sophisticated they are at keeping out users with multiple accounts. They could be the biggest shark pool out their if poorly policed.
5. Regulation means taxation. Government is an entity, an entity that likes revenue. Sales taxes are coming to DFS. But if the regulation means sharks can’t play, that will be a big revenue hit for the sites.
My reason for disliking DFS has nothing to do with baseball or fantasy sports. It is the silicon valley style of “let’s grow the business by ignoring the law and by the time we are big enough to be called out on it we will be big enough to lobby for the law to be changed to our interpretation.” Uber and Airbnb do the same thing. The ethical side of me just cringes when companies like these pull in millions or even billions of dollars based on something that is questionably legal.
And yes I’m a hypocrite that uses Uber regularly, but I wouldn’t be upset if they disappeared completely tomorrow. Just like I used Napster but couldn’t blame anyone once that was shutdown.