Crossed Signals: Blake Swihart

Over the offseason, the Red Sox refused to trade catching prospect Blake Swihart (plus others) for then-Phillies ace Cole Hamels. In retrospect it was a wise move if only because other components on the roster failed spectacularly. If one of Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, or Rusney Castillo had performed as expected, then Hamels may have been the difference between a Wild Card berth and a trip home. As it turned out, he would have been dealt again at the deadline.

Swihart, a switch-hitter, was supposed to spend most of the season at Triple-A, but a need at the major league level opened the door early. He held his own. Per Zach Sanders’ values, Swihart was the 17th most valuable catcher. He was a must own in any two-catcher format, especially because his production was limited by his 309 plate appearances. He produced 1.5 WAR in his rookie campaign too.

The 23-year-old is often compared to Buster Posey. The expectation is that he’ll grow into a high average hitter with decent pop. In his rookie campaign, he produced a respectable .274/.319/.392 line (91 wRC+) with 47 runs, 31 RBI, five home runs, and four stolen bases. Not bad for 309 plate appearances.

His nearly 27 percent line drive rate led to a .359 BABIP. He has a history of above average BABIPs. I suspect he’ll continue to benefit from line drives. His batted ball profile does have a problem – namely a 46 percent ground ball rate and 28 percent fly ball rate. With so many ground balls, Swihart will have trouble racking up extra base hits and RBI.

Here’s the thing that makes it so hard to analyze him – he’s a young, top prospect. There are red flags aplenty. For example, he struggled against left-handed pitching despite a better walk and strikeout rate. He had just three extra base hits in 91 plate appearances (spray chart). Against righties, he posted a healthy .293/.326/.428 line buoyed by a .390 BABIP. This spray chart versus RHP looks much better.

You’ll notice impressive power to the pull field, but he also hit with authority to the opposite field. Another year or two of maturity could see some of those doubles leave the yard. A discerning eye might wonder about the red dot in the middle-middle of center field. Red dots, according to the legend, are home runs. Here’s what our play log says about that hit which came in the 10th inning on August 28.

Blake Swihart hit a inside the park home run to shortstop (Fly).

That description is oh-so-slightly misleading. Observe (click):

The ball bounced all the way back to the shortstop. It was fielded at the location of the red dot, but it actually hit off the wall.

That’s interesting and all, but it doesn’t help us evaluate Swihart’s season. We know about the problems – specifically too many grounders, a fluky looking BABIP, and possible platoon splits for his power. On the bright side, he has enough speed to take five to 10 bases annually. He’s not Jason Kendall, but at least he contributes to the category.

The hardest part is projecting his growth as a hitter. That’s where we get our signals crossed. If he were a veteran like A.J. Pierzynski, we could just talk about who he is right now. Top prospects, especially catchers, often need an adjustment period before they fully hit their stride.

Will Swihart start to hit more fly balls (and by extension, extra base hits) in the coming years? Will he hit his fly balls farther? Can he reduce his 25 percent strikeout rate? Scouts generally answer positively to all three questions. However, the most important question is this: how much will he improve in 2016? Maybe none, possibly a lot. Helpful, right?

While I’m not ready to spend heavily on him, I’ll be looking at him as a $1 pick up in 12-team, single catcher leagues. In 12-team, two catcher leagues, I’d expect Swihart to run around $5 to $8. It’s a long time until draft season. We’ll see if the helium catches up to him.