Archive for September, 2015

The Sleeper and the Bust 9/3/2015 – Innings Limits

Episode 273

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talk Corey Seager, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Conforto, Didi Gregorius, and Jay Bruce. The main topic centers around IP limits for young starters and we find out how Eno is handling: Noah Syndergaard, Raisel Iglesias, Carlos Martinez, Lance McCullers, Taijuan Walker, Joe Ross, and Luis Severino

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MASH Report (9/3/15)

• September 1st is such a mess with all the transactions. A bunch of semi-hurt players came off the DL. Also, several minor league DL players moved to the MLB 60-day DL to increase roster spots. With no real reason to put players on the DL with the expanded rosters, I will try to keep track of those players in another table after the official DL players. I hope I got everything, but let me know if I missed anything.

Mark Teixeira’s bone bruise is going to keep him out at least two weeks. Historically, hitters take a little longer to return, but the time frame is close.

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Innings Limit Updates – Danger Zone & Already Over

Continuing from yesterday, here are updates on key young arms facing potential innings limits in September.

Danger Zone
Player Age 2015 IP Last Yr Diff Last Yr+20% +20% Diff
Carlos Rodon* 22 129 123 0 148 -19
Robbie Ray 23 138 129 10 154 -16
Anthony DeSclafani 25 150 135 15 162 -12
Noah Syndergaard 22 152 133 19 160 -8
Luis Severino 21 128 113 15 136 -7
Michael Lorenzen 23 138 121 18 145 -7
Joe Ross 22 143 122 21 146 -3
Mike Foltynewicz 23 143 121 22 146 -2
Taijuan Walker 22 153 129 24 155 -2
Mike Montgomery 25 149 126 23 151 -2
*NCAA IP incl. in last year figures

These guys are all at or above their 2014 workload so teams could pull the plug at any time from here until the end. Some of them don’t have any fantasy relevance so I’m not really going to dive into Lorenzen, Foltynewicz, or Montgomery. The others range from star-level with the way their pitching so far to useful in only-league formats.

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RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 9/03/2015

Episode 105 – All Systems Go For Lorenzo Cain

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson discuss a five-game DFS slate for the day, the concept of the pick that is too good and therefore too obvious, purposely picking players with a platoon disadvantage, trying to be excited about Yangervis Solarte, Jonny Gomes immediately having potential, and Taylor Jungmann’s chances to fail.

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The Daily Grind: Thin Thursday, Godley, Roark, Hicks

Agenda

  1. Take a Break
  2. Daily DFS
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Godley, Roark, Hicks, Sweeney
  6. Factor Grid

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Buying the Red Sox Starting Rotation

It is no secret that the Red Sox defense has been brutal at turning balls in play into outs this year. As a team, the pitching staff has allowed a .307 BABIP, second highest in the American League and fifth in baseball. But things are bound to improve as we have recently learned that Hanley Ramirez, currently sidelined with a sore shoulder, will never again (hopefully) play left field. Instead, he will take over first base duties when he’s healthy enough to return. While we have no idea how he will perform defensively at first, he can’t possibly cost the team as many runs there as he had done in the outfield!

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Roto Riteup: September 3, 2015

We’re back to our normally scheduled Roto Riteup programming today. Well, as normal as it can be given the author.

On today’s agenda:
1. Take a look at Marcell Ozuna
2. Stephen Strasburg’s scratched start
3. Good things from Marcus Stroman
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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Innings Limit Updates – Plenty Left

The biggest question in fantasy this September isn’t “who are the must-get call ups”, but rather “how many more IP does Pitcher X have left?” This is because many of the potentially high-impact call ups are already up and producing so barring substantial injuries, there just isn’t a lot of room for September additions to make a massive impact. Meanwhile several of those aforementioned high-impact prospects who might’ve been call ups a couple years back are now several months into their MLB careers after getting the call this summer and sticking.

Let’s take a look at where the youngsters of note are at this point in the season and try to get a read on how much they might have left in the tank. The general rule of thumb that Eno and I adhere to is 20% over your workload from the previous season. There is no set ideal for all pitchers, but 20% is usually what teams will give a young arm and then take it beyond that in a case-by-case basis.

We will start with the guys who won’t come close to the +20% threshold and thus shouldn’t be in grave danger for an innings limit cutting their season short:

Plenty Left per +20%
Player Age 2015 IP Last Yr Diff Last Yr+20% +20% Diff
Yordano Ventura 24 130 208 -79 250 -120
Drew Hutchison 24 143 185 -46 222 -83
Kyle Hendricks 25 147 183 -36 220 -72
Alex Wood 24 154 180 -26 216 -62
Andrew Heaney 24 151 167 -16 200 -49
Danny Salazar 25 157 171 -13 205 -48
Aaron Nola* 22 159 172 -13 206 -47
Matt Wisler 22 136 147 -11 176 -40
Henry Owens 22 151 159 -8 191 -40
Taylor Jungmann 25 150 154 -4 184 -34
*NCAA IP incl. in last year figures

Keep in mind that the idea of “plenty left” is relative to the +20% threshold. The team may have something else to say about it, so let’s dig in and see what we can find regarding potential limits for some of these guys.

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Waiver Wire Smorgasbord

In your quest to win your fantasy league this season, a smattering of these types of players strategically added to your team down the stretch, could make the difference in your prospects for success. They will not fit everyone’s needs but will certainly help some.

The Underappreciated Performer

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Three Unowned Starters for the Home Stretch

(Dave Andersen published a similar post for hitters in our Community section last week. Check it out here.)

I want to say something inspiring such as “it’s never too late to make a move,” but that’s patently untrue. In two of my leagues, it’s too late. Very, very too late. That kind of statement only applies to contenders.

Interpret it in a different context, however, and it carries some weight. If you play in a dynasty league, you can, and should, always make moves.

Major League Baseball has a bounty of young, electric pitching talent. A lot of that talent remains largely unowned, too, while other pitchers retain lofty ownership numbers because of their name recognition.

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