Innings Limit Updates – Danger Zone & Already Over

These guys are all at or above their 2014 workload so teams could pull the plug at any time from here until the end. Some of them don’t have any fantasy relevance so I’m not really going to dive into Lorenzen, Foltynewicz, or Montgomery. The others range from star-level with the way their pitching so far to useful in only-league formats.

Carlos Rodon

The White Sox aren’t playing for anything so there isn’t a team-based incentive to keep running him out there, but they haven’t really put any kind of figure on it. This CBS Sports blurb from May 14th by Jason Butt quotes Rich Hahn saying, “There is no magic number, we’re going to remain flexible responding to what we see and hear from the player.” Rodon is in a groove right now with five straight quality starts (including one Wednesday night), all with 2 or fewer ER and three of the five going 7+ IP, and if he continues to roll, I think they will just go with it.

Outlook: Rodon is a workhorse-in-training. That doesn’t mean the Sox will run him ragged just to pile up some innings, but they won’t be afraid to exceed even the +20% level if he’s feeling good enough to do so. His rotation spot is due up five more times after last night and I think we get at least four starts but essentially make it to the finish line with some schedule massaging here and there.

Robbie Ray

Ray only pitched 129 innings last year, but he had 142 in 2013. In fact, I may have shorted him on his 2014 count because I’m seeing he had 11 in the Arizona Fall League, too, which pushes him up to 140 and likely gives him a longer leash to close out the season. I haven’t seen anything on a potential limit for Ray out of the D’Backs. He’s been alright this year, showing some positive signs in his strikeout rate as well as an interesting shift in batted ball mix in-season. The big fear when he got off to a great start was that the plentiful hard contact rate mixed with a heavy flyball skew and obscenely low HR/FB rate would make some painful regression.

There’s definitely been some as he posted a 6.00 ERA in six August starts, but it wasn’t via the home run in part because he shifted from a 36% GB rate through July to a 52% mark in August. Walks were actually a big problem for him in August (13% BB rate) and they conspired with a surging BABIP – from .255 in the first half to .368 in the second – yielding lots of traffic (1.77 WHIP) and too many runs (20 in 30 IP). He did have two quality starts and was an out away from a third so it wasn’t all bad in August.

Outlook: I think he keeps going and makes it to the finish line. They will likely give him an extra day on occasion to get into early-October, but I don’t think they have to limit him. Of course, if he doesn’t turn it around after his August, neither fantasy folks nor the Diamondbacks will want him pitching.

Noah Syndergaard

Syndergaard and his rotation mates have been the subject of innings limit talk since about February. Thor has already surpassed his 2014 total, but has a little cushion with the +20% cap. However, the Mets don’t just have to worry about getting him to the regular season finish line as they are likely headed to the playoffs where he will be a key part of any success they hope to have in the postseason.

We’ve seen the Mets use a six-man rotation at times and skip guys in other situations. In fact, Syndergaard himself is being skipped this weekend per Adam Rubin at ESPN. Matt Harvey was also recently skipped and likely will be again. The return of Steven Matz makes skipping over your studs quite a bit easier as does a 6.5-game lead in the division. There haven’t been any numbers put on Thor, while 180 has been tossed around in reference to Harvey, who is coming off of TJ surgery.

Outlook: Syndergaard will break his +20% cap in the regular season, that’s all but guaranteed at this point. My guess is that they’re eyeing 190-195 as a total for him, playoffs included. I’m not sure too much more than 20 of those will be used in the season’s final month, especially if they build on their lead.

Thor is a very scary proposition for those in H2H playoffs or Roto players in tight pitching races relying on him. The Mets don’t give a shit about that, though, which is obviously understandable. You need to start making plans to bridge the gap in your rotation. Or really, you should’ve been making plans all summer because this isn’t new.

Luis Severino

The day before Severino’s debut, Ryan Hatch of NJ.com wrote that he won’t be limited coming down the stretch. Andrew Marchand at ESPN reiterates the point today, saying the Yankees mapped it out so he would still have gas in tank in October. This is actually not too surprising considering that Severino was essentially the team’s big acquisition at the deadline. Instead of trading someone like Severino or Greg Bird for established players, they decided that those two and possibly Aaron Judge would be the pieces to add in early-August.

Severino went five innings (94 pitches) in his debut, but has gone six innings in his four starts since with pitch counts of 97, 105, 107, and 88. His spot came up in the order with two on and nobody out in Atlanta during the 88-pitch game (A-Rod was walked and the Braves actually got out of the inning) or that game almost certainly would’ve given Severino a new career-high in innings. Pitchers batting is so cool.

Outlook: Proceed with confidence. I’m taking the Yankees at their word here, he’s going to keep on trucking. Their bullpen allows them to keep Severino in the 5-6 inning range each start and their offense is explosive enough to make the move even easier at times, although the team scoring 4.9 runs per game has given their rookie 1, 1, 4, 6, and 3 runs in his five starts.

Joe Ross

After an excellent start on August 27th, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post wrote about a potential innings limit for Ross and cited a +25% cap that the Nationals consider safe for young arms. It doesn’t mean they will adhere to it entirely, but there is certainly a shutdown coming at some point. The +25% cap it bumps him up to 153, leaving him with about eight innings until reaching it, so even doubling that remaining portion doesn’t get us anywhere near the finish line.

Outlook: You’ve probably got two starts left for Ross, especially after the clunker on Tuesday in St. Louis (2.7 IP/3 ER, 6 BB). Three rough starts in his last five – all on the road, all against top teams (LAD, SF, STL) – leave him with a 3.50 ERA so it might not feel like a big loss, but he is fanning nearly a batter per inning and that 1.07 WHIP is excellent. Have a plan ready because he’s done soon.

Taijuan Walker

This Bob Dutton piece from August 10th estimates a rough 175-inning cap for Walker, although they also have him down for 139 innings last year and I could only account for 127. Either way, he’s already well over his 2014 count at 153 and a non-contending Mariners don’t need to extend him. I do think they’d like him ready for a full season in 2016, though, so getting him near that 175 would leave him in a situation where something approaching 200 next year wouldn’t be an issue.

Outlook: I think he actually makes his full complement of starts (five) even though the rough cap they’re using wouldn’t get him there. With a 175-inning cap, he has 22 innings left in the tank, good for three-plus starts given his average per start this year. Finishing the fourth and giving him the fifth would likely put him somewhere from 7-10 innings over their cap. I should mention that this is dependent upon his hip being OK, but it was said to be just a cramp so I’m not sure it’s a long-term issue.