The Daily Grind: Thin Thursday, Godley, Roark, Hicks

Agenda

1. Take a Break
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Godley, Roark, Hicks, Sweeney
6. Factor Grid

1. Take a Break

No, don’t take a break. Today is pep talk day. I spent a few minutes yesterday reflecting on the nature of burn out. It’s hard to stay on top of a fantasy team every day for six months, especially when your team refuses to get hot enough to surge up the standings. It’s tiring. It can become a chore rather than a joy. And now you have a fantasy football team too (I don’t, but I bet you do).

Don’t waste the five months you’ve already put in by easing off the throttle. Every place in the standings counts, and September is when an astute owner can climb from sixth to third. It’s not winning, but you might pick up a trick or two that will help next season. Maybe you’ll be the owner to find the keeper who goes from nobody to $20 draft pick.

2. Daily DFS – Thin Thursday

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: It’s already a Thin Thursday, and the White Sox and Twins had to go make it thinner. They represent the only afternoon game.

Late: I like these little five game contests. They usually force some sort of unorthodox behavior. Pitching is an issue tonight. At the top of the pool are Francisco Liriano and Jordan Zimmermann. Then you have a bunch of big gambles. Edinson Volquez against the Tigers looks like the best play. It’s not a thrilling matchup.

Do you trust Mat Latos after he’s failed to finish the fifth inning in three straight starts? I don’t. Maybe Matt Wisler’s the trick. If only he wasn’t bad. Matt Boyd? Ryan Vogelsong at Coors? These are some ugly choices.

Cash game players have it easy. You’ll pick one of the top two names and jury rig a roster of bargains. The GPP crowd has a tough road ahead of them. If you take Liriano, you’ll be joining 50 percent of the owners, and you’ll have overlap on your other cheap picks. Going with the cheap pitcher presents it’s own set of problems.

Stack Targets: Vogelsong, Latos, Wisler, Boyd, Colin Rea, Chris Rusin

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

I told you it was thin today, right? Here’s what I’ve got for you.

Yunel Escobar v Wisler
Marlon Byrd v Rusin
Nick Castellanos v Edinson Volquez

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: There’s no reason for SaberSim to know that Bryce Harper left last night’s game with glute tightness. But I know. So I’m pointing out that Harper isn’t the third best hitter today. I’m also not overly enthusiastic about paying for Brandon Belt against a lefty. Mainly because he’s terrible against southpaws.

Right: Unsurprisingly, Buster Posey, Matt Duffy, and Byrd are near the top of the rankings. Their game is at Coors Field against Chris Rusin. The Giants stack is the hitter version of picking Liriano tonight. You’ll be sharing your roster with half the field.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Godley, Roark, Hicks, Sweeney

Pitchers to Start: First the Diamondbacks were talking about shutting Zach Godley down for the season. Now he’s returning to the rotation for some September starts. He left us wanting more after five appearances (three starts). His cutter rates well, and his offspeed stuff is solid. He’s managed a high swinging strike rate and a ground ball rate over 50 percent. Now we’ll learn where he fits on the 2016 draft board. He’ll face the always volatile Cubs.

Also consider: Luis Severino, Kris Medlen, J.A. Happ

Pitchers to Exploit: The good version of Tanner Roark is not an exploit. However, we don’t know what version we’re getting tomorrow. Will it be Roark the Painter or Roark the Tattertosser? A matchup against the Braves could work out well. Don’t count on more than five innings (if that).

Also consider: Ubaldo Jimenez, Drew Hutchison, Adam Morgan, Matt Garza, Keyvius Sampson, John Danks, Mike Pelfrey, Jorge de la Rosa, Chris Heston, Martin Perez, Edgar Olmos, Aaron Brooks

Hitters (power): George Springer will be back. If he happens to be on waivers, you know what to do. Unlike Springer, Aaron Hicks very probably is available to you. He’s emerged as a solid four category fantasy player. I still have concerns about his batting average, but it should be passable if he’s healthy.

Also consider: Andre Ethier, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Canha, Seth Smith, C.J. Cron, Marlon Byrd, Ben Paulsen, Stephen Piscotty, Eddie Rosario, Jonny Gomes, Michael Conforto

Hitters (speed): Darnell Sweeney doesn’t play regularly. However, he’s demonstrated impressive power with three home runs in 29 plate appearances. He’s slashing .250/.379/.667. While he hasn’t stolen a base, he’s much more known for his speed. The Phillies have realized they need to evaluate options like Sweeney and Aaron Altherr rather than guys who have had their chances like Cody Asche and Domonic Brown.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski, Kelby Tomlinson, Rusney Castillo, Odubel Herrera

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Washington D.C. may see a dash of late rain. The other five games should be dry. Denver might also see a sprinkle or three.

The Link.

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